Week 7 Trends, Survivor, Injuries, Cheatsheets + Projections
Zozo Championship Bets
SURVIVOR RESTART
The FREEEEEE Restart survior league starts THIS WEEK. Why not join and try to win (or share) the $5K top prize.
PLAY IN RESTART SURIVIOR LEAGUE
It literally costs nothng and you can win $5K. Don’t see a reason not to play.
Week 7 Injury Report
RB
Roschon Johnson (Concussion) — OUT
David Montgomery (Ribs) — OUT
Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) — Expected IN
Jeff Wilson (finger/ribs) — IN
Kareem Hunt (thigh) — Questionable (Deon Jackson was elevated to roster for CLE)
Christian McCaffrey (Oblique) — Questionable
Aaron Jones (Hamstring) — Questionable
Craig Reynolds (toe/hamstring) — Questionable
Zach Charbonnet (Hamtring) — Questionable
Travis Homer (hamstring) — Questionable
Miles Sanders (shoulder) — On Bye
Ronnie Rivers (Knee) — Placed on IR
James Conner (Knee) — Placed on IR
De'Von Achane (Knee) — Placed on IR
Khalil Herbert (Ankle) — Placed on IR
Kyren Williams (Ankle) — Placed on IR
Week 7 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/23W7RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W7WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W7QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W7TEDSTRanks
WR
Mecole Hardman — Traded to KC
Justin Watson (Elbow) — OUT
Diontae Johnson (Hamstring) — Expected IN
Alec Pierce (Shoulder) — Expected IN
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Head) — Expected IN
Deebo Samuel (Shoulder) — Questionable
DK Metcalf (Hip) — Questionable
Quez Watkins (hamstring) — Questionable
Demario Douglas (Head) — Questionable
Laviska Shenault Jr. (Ankle) — On Bye
Chris Moore (Concussion) — On Bye
Tank Dell (Concussion) — On Bye
Treylon Burks (knee) — On Bye
Zay Jones (knee) — Missed Game
Justin Jefferson (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
TE
Kylen Granson (concussion) — OUT
Greg Dulcich (hamstring) — OUT
Dalton Kincaid (Concussion) — Expected IN
Hunter Henry (ankle) — Questionable
Juwan Johnson (Calf) — Missed Game
Pat Freiermuth (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
QB
Baker Mayfield (Hand) — IN
Justin Fields (Thumb) — OUT
Jimmy Garoppolo (Back) — OUT; Brian Hoyer Startings
Daniel Jones (Neck) — Expected OUT
Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) — Expected IN
Kyler Murray — May Return in Two Weeks
Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — On Bye
Anthony Richardson (Shoulder) — OUT FOR SEASON
TNF
The Run The Sims PROP SNIPER stumbled on the 1pm slate Sunday Week 6 but caught fire again on the late slate and in primetime, so lets keep that going. The Prop Sniper package includes all Sports book props along with Prize Picks and Underdog tools. I was one Tua rush away from sweeping it Sunday with the 6 top plays. Fortuneately, the two top ones came through.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
I don’t always play prize picks, but sometimes they’ll just hang slate lines out there for a while, so I always check in to see. Prop Sniper makes that easy.
Use code DOP at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
For Thursday, while the Sims have run and are showing some decent Jags lines, I want confirmation that LAWRENCE is actually going to play before investing. Of note: Zay Jones is OUT, as is Juwan Johnson. The Sniper loves Derek Carr to toss a pick regardless however. That’s the highest rated Saints prop right now. I’m sure we’ll get some new lines and markets Thursday afternoon, so check back then on Run The Sims…
Additionally, Tambo and co will be LIVE Thursday afternoon on MMN talking TNF Showdown Slate and taking your Qs starting at 2pm ET. Bookmark that now. Or watch after the fact in the lead up to the game.
WATCH: TNF DFS PICKS & LIVE CHAT
GOLF BETS
Totally spaced on this starting at 745pm ET because the Zozo is in Japan.
Min Woo 17/1
Cam Davis 22/1
Svensson 45/1
Dahmen 66/1 (5 Places)
Min Woo Lee — Fresh off a win on the Asian Tour a week ago, Min Woo is already at an advantage with time zone adjustment over the field traveling to Japan, and his skill set sets up quite well for the course: Elite off the tee, with massive upside on and around the greens. Generally, the thing that holds him back is his iron play, as we’ve seen extreme down turns on that front sporadically, but he enters striking well enough at the moment to give him a shot at his first PGA Tour win.
Cam Davis — If you haven’t been paying attention, Cam Davis is on one right now. T10s in 5 of 6 starts, consistently solid T2G and he’s sun running with the putter at the moment. This sort of run usually culminates with a win or a prolonged slump. Let shop its the former.
THREAD: Zozo Championship Picks & INFO
Joel Dahmen —The brief break between playoffs and swing season seems to have done wonders for Dahmen’s game. After posting no finish better than T41 last season, he’s reeled off consecutive Top 15 finishes in the Swing, including gaining 10 strikes on the field between driving and approach in Vegas a week ago. If he can turn the putter on these greens, there’s no reason Dahmen can build off his T16 at this site year ago.
Adam Svensson — Opening with back-to back Top 20 finishes to kick off the swing season, the Canadian has returned to his usually strong ball striking ways, yet the putter hasn’t quite matched up at the same time. He flashed the putting upside just not in the weeks the ball striking is on.
Week 7 Picks Cheatsheets
Pat Mayo, Geoff Fienberg and Tim Anderson go game-by-game and make their 2023 Week 7 Picks, Bets and Props. Plus, a mini Cust Corner on Trackpad vs Mouse + Candy Bars.
WATCH: Week 7 Spread Picks & Cust Corner
Watch: Week 7 Best Bets and Teaser
Week 7 Betting Notes
The Saints are 2-8-1 ATS since the beginning of last season when favored.
Overs are 6-2 in Chicago's past eight games against a bottom-10 offense.
Unders are 9-1 following a Browns home win since the beginning of 2021. Unders are 10-3 in Indianapolis' past 13 games against a bottom-10 pass offense.
The Bills have outscored the Patriots 95-40 in their past three trips to Foxborough in the post Tom Brady era. No team is worse ATS against top-10 offenses since the beginning of last season than the Patriots (1-7).
Three straight games in this rivalryhave seen no more than 40 points scored, with five of the past six seeing 43 or fewer points scored. Unders are 10-1-2 since 2021 when the Giants are a home underdog.
The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their pat 14 games against a top-10 run defense.
The Steelers have covered 16 of their past 25 games as an underdog (64%).
The Rams and Dolphins are the only teams unbeaten ATS when favored this season (minimum of two games as a favorite).
The Seahawks have failed to cover six of nine games when favored since the beginning of last season.
Green Bay had the bye week to prepare for the altitude in Denver, an advantage that is lessening with time (DEN: 3-8 ATS in their past 11 home games). The Packers have covered eight of their past 12 games against a bottom-10 offense.
Overs are 10-2-1 following a Charger loss since 2021, the highest hit rate in the NFL.
The Dolphins are 12-6 ATS following an outright win since the beginning of 2021. Overs are 14-5 in Philadelphia home games since the start of 2021, the highest hit rate in the NFL.
Overs are 10-5 in San Francisco's past 15 against bottom-10 pass defenses. Overs are 10-4 in Minnesota's past 14 games against top-10 defenses.
— PM