Week 7 SUNDAY UPDATE - Injuries, Props & Parlays, DraftKings Notes
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Week 7 Injury Report
RB
Kareem Hunt (thigh) — GAME TIME DECISION (Deon Jackson was elevated to roster for CLE)
Roschon Johnson (Concussion) — OUT
David Montgomery (Ribs) — OUT
Zach Charbonnet (Hamtring) — Expected OUT
Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) — Expected IN
Jeff Wilson (finger/ribs) — IN
Christian McCaffrey (Oblique) — Questionable (MNF)
Aaron Jones (Hamstring) — Expected IN
Craig Reynolds (toe/hamstring) — Expected IN
Travis Homer (hamstring) — Questionable
Miles Sanders (shoulder) — On Bye
Ronnie Rivers (Knee) — Placed on IR
James Conner (Knee) — Placed on IR
De'Von Achane (Knee) — Placed on IR
Khalil Herbert (Ankle) — Placed on IR
Kyren Williams (Ankle) — Placed on IR
Week 7 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/23W7RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W7WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W7QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W7TEDSTRanks
WR
DK Metcalf (Hip) — GAME TIME DECISION (Late Games)
Mecole Hardman — Traded to KC
Justin Watson (Elbow) — OUT
Deebo Samuel (Shoulder) — OUT; Will Return After the SF Bye Week
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Head) — Expected OUT
Diontae Johnson (Hamstring) — Expected IN
Alec Pierce (Shoulder) — Expected IN
Demario Douglas (Head) — Expected IN
Laviska Shenault Jr. (Ankle) — On Bye
Chris Moore (Concussion) — On Bye
Tank Dell (Concussion) — On Bye
Treylon Burks (knee) — On Bye
Zay Jones (knee) — Missed Game
Justin Jefferson (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
TE
Kylen Granson (concussion) — OUT
Greg Dulcich (hamstring) — OUT
Dalton Kincaid (Concussion) — Expected IN
Hunter Henry (ankle) — Expected IN
Juwan Johnson (Calf) — Missed Game
Pat Freiermuth (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
QB
Baker Mayfield (Hand) — IN
Justin Fields (Thumb) — OUT
Jimmy Garoppolo (Back) — OUT; Brian Hoyer Startings
Daniel Jones (Neck) — Expected OUT
Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) — Expected IN
Kyler Murray — May Return in Two Weeks
Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — On Bye
Anthony Richardson (Shoulder) — OUT FOR SEASON
WEEK 7 PROPS
I have some ideas on my own about how some of these games are going to play out, however, the Run The Sims Prop Sniper keeps pushing me towards the same one.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
Mahomes has crossed this number in five of six games, and we just sawe the Chargers D breakdown enough to allowed Dak to take off a bunch Monday night. Weirdly, the one game where Mahomes went under was vs MIN when he had zero rushing attempts. Either way, Mahomes o25.5 Rushing yards is best rated play right now. May be that will change after inactives are posted, so chek back on RTS when the odds update and the sims run again.
Wouldn’t be a Sunday without some Same Game Parlays to waste money one, now would it? For whatever reason I targetted the WAS/NYG game.
I played this one with Logan Thomas o29.5 as weel to bump it to +1100, then the YOLO play
Throw on Saquon u21.5 Rec Yards and you got a 120/1 ticket!
Don’t forget there’s a Prize Picks & Underdog tool as a part of the Prop Sniper. Sometimes I like to venture over there and try and get some money down on players I like, but don’t see props exactly what I want. I played the Mahomes/Ingram 2-Play by its, but made the 25s 6-Play as well, and this where I felt the best value (outside of the DraftKings DFS) was in Jacobs and Walker this week.
Use code DOP at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
DraftKings Player Notes and Info
Per Usual, Justin Freeman released his handy value chart for the DraftKings main slate. And yes, a player can both be Chalk and Underowned. Basically, that’s telling you that they’re very popular, yet not popular enough. All these numbers will update again after inactives are released over at Run The Sims, so they’ll be fra more accurate then…
STACK
Not sure there will be a chalky option, so pick your favorite
- Six teams on a bye
- Eagles, Dolphins and 49ers all off the main slate
Stafford-Kupp-Nacua triple
- 71% target share over the past two weeks
- All production comes through the air (Stafford: more TD passes than rush attempts since joining LAR)
- Blitzburgh is top-5 in blitz and pressure rate. Has left them exposed to quick reads
- 125+ yards and 2 TD catches to three different featured options (Aiyuk, Adams and Collins)
PAY DOWN QB
Sam Howell
- Multiple pass TD or 4+ points as a runner in 5 of 6 games
- Giants are a top-10 blitz team and a bottom-10 pressure team
- 34% discount from Mahomes (has 11.6 more FP than Mahomes over the past 3 weeks)
SKINNY STACK
Rashee Rice and Josh Palmer
- Unique exposure to the chalky game
- Rice: distancing himself from other WR in KC, 75% catch rate, top-12 in yards/route and average separation
- Palmer: 7+ targets in 3 straight, Quentin Johnston hardly used following bye
CREATIVE RBs
Jonathan Taylor
- Matchup with CLE and lack of role clarity could suppress his ownership
- Split RB duties last week and that was with Zack Moss coming off of a career day (trending up)
- RBs accounted for one-third of Minshew completions in Week 6
- Reasonable path to 16-18 touches, priced $1,600 cheaper than Saquon and $2,100 cheaper than Ekeler
Jaylen Warren
- Pacing for 71 catches (only 3 RBs did that last season)
- PIT is an underdog, game script bump (Najee: one game with 5+ receiving yards)
- Najee: 3rd highest stacked box rate (33.3%, he's not going to run away with the feature role any time soon)
- A live action to pair with the LAR triple stack (if LAR is producing, Warren's role increases in value)
PAY DOWN TE
Luke Musgrave
- Cheap exposure to facing the Broncos is never a bad thread to pull
- Week 5: caught 6 of 7 targets (all other Packers: 45.5%)
- First game with healthy Aaron Jones and Christian Watson should create space
PAY DOWN D/ST
Ravens vs DET
- 5th cheapest
- 18 sacks for BAL over the past month
- DET injured backfield, lots of Goff drop backs on the road ... gold!
- Could see a discount in ownership given Lions early season success
Week 7 Picks Cheatsheets
WATCH: Week 7 Spread Picks & Cust Corner
Watch: Week 7 Best Bets and Teaser
— PM