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Week 7 Ranks, Notes, Injuries
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WEEK 7 NOTES
Derrick Henry has 170.1 PPR points this season … that’s more than RBs 14-15 (Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb) combined!
Courtland Sutton leads the NFL in air yards this season … by 92 yards!
Looking for some context around QB scoring through six weeks? In terms of total points, here are your Top 10 QBs and how they rank league wide in expected fantasy points (the number of points the average QB over the past decade would have scored given their usage):
The Ravens go on a bye NEXT week and that may not seem like a big deal, but Lamar Jackson tends to ball out when a week off is on the radar. In each of the past two seasons, he’s run for over 100 yards and a touchdown in the week preceding Baltimore’s bye. Over those two seasons, he’s scored over 9.5 fantasy points with his legs in 3 of 4 meetings with the Bengals and the Ravens are 4-0, winning by an average of 25.3 points. That said, I think its closer this time around which bring me too …
Week 7 Injuries (Last Updated Friday PM)
I’ll be updating this list throughout the week, so save the hard link to check back.
Tevin Coleman (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Jeremy McNichols (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Rashaad Penny (Calf) Activated for IR; Expected to Play
Alex Collins (hip) DNP Thursday
Rashaad Penny Expected to Return Week 7
Antonio Gibson (Shin) QUESTIONABLE
Latavius Murray (ankle) OUT
Saquon Barkley (ankle) OUT
Damien Williams (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Samaje Perine (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Christian McCaffrey (hammy) On IR
Chris Carson (Neck) On IR
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) On IR
Nick Chubb (Calf) OUT Missed Week 7
Kareem Hunt (Calf) Carted Off; Expected to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Antonio Brown (ankle) OUT
Nico Collins (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Deonte Harris (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Michael Thomas (ankle) Expected back Week 8 or 9
Tre’Quan Smith Designated to return from IR
Terry McLaurin (hamstring) Likely IN
Julio Jones (hamstring) Likely IN
Jerry Jeudy (foot) Activated from IR; Doubtful Week 7
Calvin Ridley Likely IN
Russell Gage Likely IN
Parris Campbell (foot) OUT; Placed on IR
TY Hilton (quad) Game Tim Decision
Kadarius Toney (ankle) Likely to miss 1/2 Weeks
Brandon Zylstra Placed on IR
Terrance Marshall (concussion) OUT
CJ Board (arm) OUT
Chris Conley (neck) QUESTIONABLE
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) OUT
Curtis Samuel (groin) OUT
DeVante Parker (hammy) QUESTIONABLE
Preston Williams (groin) Likely IN
Darius Slayton (hamstring) Likely IN
Jarvis Landry Played Week 7
Odell Beckham (shoulder) Played Week 7
Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) WILL START
Trey Lance (knee) OUT
Teddy Bridgewater (foot) WILL START
Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) Could be activated from IR; Will NOT start Week 7
Dak Prescott (foot) Spotted in Walking Boot post game; On BYE WEEK
Baker Mayfield (shoulder) Missed Week 7
Evan Engram (calf) QUESTIONABLE
Jimmy Graham (COVID 19) OUT
Dawson Knox (broken hand) Likely OUT following bye week
Travis Kelce (hand) QUESTIONABLE
Jody Fortson (Achilles) Out for Season
Dallas Goddert (COVID19) IN
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) OUT
Zozo Championship Bets
I didn’t think I’d actually end up betting or doing a show for the awful Zozo, but caved…
If you don’t feel like watching, here’s what I went with.
In full honesty, as I describe in the video, I barely did any digging on this event. I decided instead to use Fantasy National (quickly) to target the longer-odds profiles I think work for this event. After a string of 2nds, I’m hoping this new strategy pays dividends. Just need Morikawa, Xander and Hideki to have shit putting weeks and the whole field is live, IMO.
Here’s a the extent of my coverage…
Doug Ghim 70/1 - You’re basically getting Emiliano Grillo but a much better price.
Henrik Norlander 80/1 - The driving has been suspect, however, he’s gained over +7.6 strokes on approach in two of his past four starts. If he can find his putter, I’ll take a chance in a weak field.
Garrick Higgo 80/1 - I think he’s a lot better than this number
Tom Hoge 90/1 - The Approach has been on point. Just need an outlier driving or putting week
I didn’t cover any DraftKings picks this week, so I’ll defer to Kenny and Tambo and the FGD Pod
Also, Axis filled in for Sky on the Euro PICKS show and chatted with Tom about the Mallorca Golf Open.
NHL BETS & DRAFTKINGS PICKS
Did you know the NHL is back???? I found out last week when I realized the Fantasy Hockey Picks and Bets show had to return. We’ve switched up the format. It’s now solo hosts every weekday, no more than 15 mins an episode, and wi'll always be released by the time you wake up in the morning.
You can watch or listen here. Support the show by dropping a like, sub and review.
Fantasy Hockey Podcast
If Cecil is a pro at Trolling, he’s almost as good at NHL picks. He has a website where you can find NHL plays and picks everyday — CecilPeters.com.
GALAXY BRAIN TIME: Bengals Stack (at Ravens)
OK, so this section had a big swing-and-miss early last week (Sam Darnold double stuck) and a massive hit on the Saturday edition (Justin Herbert fade to the max with the rostering of $2,300 Ravens DST). We are smart people here, so we are going to double down on the successful thread and pass on the failure. Good with that?
The train of thought last week was simple: Herbert isn’t the same when blitzed and the Ravens blitz a lot. Logical and it worked out. Well, those Ravens still bring the heat regularly (6th highest rate), so let’s evaluate this week’s QB when blitz. When blitzed this season …
JOE BURROW is 14/17 for 273 yards and 3 TD to JA’MARR CHASE
Hmm. Well that seems good. But we are in the GPP streets and research shows that we need more than a simple stack. We need to swing big for the double-stack-bring-back build. With that in mind, the defense would like to call the slot to the stand, your honor. The Ravens are bottom-10 in both yards per attempt and yards per completion to the slot this season, a level of success that should be viewed as predictive given that the average depth of opponent target on those passes is 2nd shortest in the league.
TYLER BOYD has 26 catches on 35 slot targets (other Bengals: 19 catches, 23 targets)
Burrow ranks 4th in slot CMP% this season (77.2%, NFL average is under 69%)
In the same way that NBA teams are shooting more 3’s or that MLB teams are putting their best hitter in the 2-hole, NFL teams have realized that slot passes are statistically advantageous. Need further proof? There are only three quarterbacks this season with a higher percentage of completions going to the slot than Joe Burrow … Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. No big deal, just three of the MVP favorites with Super Bowl aspirations. Burrow and the Bengals might rate below where I’d like in their adjusted pass rate, but they are taking advantage of this cheat code at an elite level and I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon.
The bring back? Less words. The Bengals have the highest adjusted completion percentage against when opponents throw out wide. That is also where those upside plays tend to come. That is also where RASHOD BATEMAN was used in his debut last week. The rookie was targeted on 30% of his routes last week and should Sammy Watkins sit again this week, Bateman is something of a free square that opens things up and completes our optimal build.
This came together far too easily, so it’s almost certainly a loser. Almost. Here it is:
And what you’re really here for…
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TNF DEN at CLE
No Chubb, No Hunt, No Baker, and probably no Beckham. WAITTTTTTT…
UPDATE: It now appears like OBJ is going to play vs the Broncos. (Week 7 WR Rankings updated accordingly)
.Conklin is probably out (HE’S INACTIVE) while Willis Jr. should return to the OL. Clowney and Malik Jackson may be out too for Cleveland. WAITTTTTT…
UPDATE: They’re both ACTIVE
I went in and tweaked my inputs for the game projections (which anyone can do at Run The Sims btw), and this is what I’m getting at the WR position after Sutton and Patrick…
Tough scene. It’s like Browns throwback night to the pre-Baker era.
One thing I found odd was the line movement in the game. Despite that list of injuries, we were aware of almost all of them already, yet the game was still CLE -3.5 Tuesday night. It’s now Thursday and it has dropped to CLE -1.5 and the only thing that’s changed is Baker being officially ruled out and Case Keenum being named the starter. Would the switch from Baker to HE’S ON THE CASE be worth 2 points (and prob more by kickoff?) with everyone healthy? Maybe. But from gimpy Baker to QB Columbo, the Browns may be better off in the short term, even if his weapons look like a glorified XFL squad.
Teddy Bridgewater is banged up too with a foot injury. He’s playing, but it may stunt his mobility or leave him open to reinjury.
I’ll wait and see the final injury report to line adjustment to see if I want to bet the game, but is a prop that seems off to me. Doesn’t mean I’m right about that however. And the nice part is I can get it on DK and Prize Picks.
CASE KEENUM o218.5 Passing Yards NOPE
Down to 215.5 passing yards. Still Like the over.
I went with this on Prize Picks. It’s perfect for anyone who doesn’t have access to Legal Sports Betting in their state or in Canada. Prize Picks is likely available and you can get a FREE $100 just for signing up. You should take advantage of that.
On DraftKings, if you just want to play the solo prop, it’s at -115 for the over right now…
I wanted to make sure I wasn’t going mental liking this one, so I ran 10,000 simulations on the Keenum prop on Run The Sims and I at least got some confirmation bias working with me. Including the vig and all.
Even when I look at my optimals, Case Keenum pops in 3/4s of linueps for DraftKings showdown Thursday night.
In conclusion: Make Thursday night fun by losing money on Case Keenum. Live like it’s 2013 again. But really, Keenum can only really do one thing, fucking sling it downfield. Then you couple that with a banged up OL and Madden create-a-player RBs, why won’t he?
If you wanna get super degen on Prize Picks Thursday, he’s a 10x gamble
From the straight props side Kendall Hinton o16.5 is at DK Sportsbook right now, it’s not bad. Easily flew past that number in the past two since Hamler and BIG AL went down. Demetric Felton o14.5 receiving yards is in play too. Expect him to play a larger part in the receiving game for the Browns with all their injuries, and the fact he’s essentially been used as a WR so far this year. Jarvis Landry o44.5 makes sense to me as well if I’m playing the Keenum over. Those, theoretically go hand-in-hand.