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Week 7 Player Notes, Injury Report, Picks
+ DK Picks, Ownership & Props
You can still get into the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. Even if you don’t think you can’t catch up, take advantage of the bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment. Perfect for anyone trying to build a bank roll.
I went with the anytime TD special this week against two bottom 10 run defenses…
Week 7 Injuries (Last Updated Sunday AM)
I’ll be updating this list up through the Sunday am Inactives (1135amET) so save the hard link to check back. Also…
Oh, and play in the RAKE FREE PME DraftKings league. We can’t have them making it smaller now can we? 3-MAX, $15 Dollar to play, flat payouts and, again, NO RAKE…
Rhamondre Stevenson OUT
Damien Williams (COVID LIST) IN
JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) Likely IN
Tevin Coleman (hamstring) OUT
Rashaad Penny (Calf) Activated from IR; Expected to Play
Alex Collins (hip) IN
Antonio Gibson (Shin) Likely IN
Samaje Perine (COVID LIST) IN
Latavius Murray (ankle) OUT
Saquon Barkley (ankle) OUT
Nick Chubb (Calf) Could Play Week 8
Kareem Hunt (Calf) Expected to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) OUT
Nico Collins (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Deonte Harris (hamstring) OUT
Tre’Quan Smith Designated to return from IR
Julio Jones (hamstring) Likely IN
DeVante Parker (hammy) OUT
Preston Williams (groin) Game Time Decision
Darius Slayton (hamstring) IN
Jerry Jeudy (foot) Activated from IR; Could return soon
Michael Thomas (ankle) Expected back Week 8 or 9
Calvin Ridley IN
Russell Gage IN
Chris Conley (neck) QUESTIONABLE
Antonio Brown (ankle) OUT
TY Hilton (quad) OUT
Parris Campbell (foot) OUT; Placed on IR
Kadarius Toney (ankle) OUT; Likely to miss 1/2 Weeks
Brandon Zylstra OUT; Placed on IR
Terrance Marshall (concussion) OUT
CJ Board (arm) OUT
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) OUT
Curtis Samuel (groin) OUT
Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) WILL START
Trey Lance (knee) OUT
Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) Will NOT start Week 7
Dak Prescott (foot) Spotted in Walking Boot post game; On BYE WEEK
Baker Mayfield (shoulder) Missed Week 7
Darren Waller (Ankle) GAME TIME DECISION
Travis Kelce (hand) Likely IN
Evan Engram (calf) Likely IN
Dallas Goddert (COVID19) IN
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) OUT
Jimmy Graham (COVID 19) OUT
Dawson Knox (broken hand) Likely OUT 2-4 weeks
Or if you don’t wanna watch.
Week 7 Player Notes
Carries aren’t everything, but through 6 weeks, 52 players had a game with 13+ carries and Chase Edmonds was NOT one of them.
The absurdity of Derrick Henry through 6 weeks (not including the Titans):
178 touches: Only 3 entire backfields have more
783 rush yards: Only 2 entire backfields have more
10 rushing TD: Only the Browns have more as a team
377 rush yards after contact: Only the Browns have more as a team
3 games with 3 rush TD: No other set of RBs has done that
Rashod Bateman was targeted on 30% of routes last week, a greater rate than Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce and DJ Moore. He’s priced outside the top-50 receivers on the DK Main Slate this week despite facing a defense that allows the highest completion percentage to WRs of any team in action this week,
Targeting upside? There are 3 players on the main slate averaging 120 air yards per game this season. Here they are and the rank of their Week 7 opponent in terms of deep pass on-target rate:
Davante Adams: 7th highest
Terry McLaurin: 5th lowest
Brandin Cooks: 2nd lowest
Galaxy Brain Time: Matt Ryan to Kyle Pitts (at Dolphins)
Does it feel a little dirty? If so, that just means you’ve bet on this Falcons team/offense at some point this season. Did they burn you that week? Probably. But this is DAILY Fantasy. They haven’t wronged you (yet) in Week 7 and while no one in their right mind is going to call anything that has to do with this game “safe”, there’s certainly a path to a big payday here. Stay with me.
Matt Ryan has thrown for 250 yards 3 times this season … if you’re even remotely considering this as an option, you’re going to have to assume this to be true this week. So let’s work with that. In those 3 games, Kyle Pitts has totaled 18 catches, 25 targets, 242 yards and a TD. That’s a season pace of 102 catches and 1,371 yards. Yea, that’s more what we are talking about and at $5,900, anything close to reflecting that sort of pace is a beautiful thing.
So why buy Pitts in this spot? What do Devante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Mike Williams and Terry McLaurin all have in common? All have proven to be the unquestioned top option in their pass games. No question. They are the top four players in percentage of team first down receiving yards. Maybe that’s a niche stat, but it makes logical sense … the early down targets go to the guys you trust to put you in good position. Need further proof? Adams, McLaurin, Hopkins and Diggs were among the league leaders last season. Seems to check out.
Well, Pitts ranks 2nd among TEs and 15th in the NFL as a whole in percentage of team first down receiving yards (28.8%). And guess what? Miami just so happens to allow the 6th most yards per first down completion this season (12.2, nearly 14% more than league average). Interesting at the very least and enough salary relief to piece this together:
Do I love it? No. Are all winning lineups comfortable feeling? How would I know what a winning lineup looks like? We get heavily favored running backs, exposure to the cheat code of Davante Adams (deep stats are favorable as mentioned above), a part of our creative stack from Tuesday (Bengals/Ravens) and a defense facing Danny Fumbz. I’ve wasted money on dumber things in my life. Hell, I’ve wasted money on dumber things this week. Actually, between starting this and finishing this, purchased $234.12 of things of Amazon I will likely never use.
Here’s what Rasa and I came up with for the Shitter Guy lineup this week on the show.
Not sure yet if Shepard is gonna go or not, but Shitter guy doesn’t know that.
Frankly, if you want to win on DraftKings (or any DFS NFL Site), just use Run The Sims. The product is so good it’s actually made me a profitable player 2021, which, as most of you know, seems impossible. Justin’s projections come preloaded in all systems, and you can tweak them how you like if you want, but Justin’s are pretty damn good. Consider this: He almost won the giant GPP on both sites on Thursday! Stupid Jarvis Landry…
Normally, I’d push my affiliate code on you, but there’s actually a better deal right now for Run The Sims is you want to try it out. The Month package is $69/month, because yes, it’s niceeeeeee, but code RTS will get yo 25% off that number, so it’s $51 and change. That’ll give you every tool expect the bankroll tracker. The weekly is $19 if you wanna give that a go. The yearly is now prorated down off the original price too
Week 7 DraftKings Ownership Guesses
Again, these are just guesses…
I don’t know if it’s going to change much going into Sunday, but I’m seeing a sub 5% owned Tom Brady right now. With no Brown or Gronk, the Brady/Evans/Godwin (or OJ/Johnson, if you want to be tricky) stack looked primed for points this weekend and appears like it will be weirdly contrarian.
Good luck this week