Week 7 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Betting Notes

+ Secret Spread Picks Link, Golf Bets

Mayo Media

Oct 19, 2022

WATCH: Week 7 Spreads + Cust Corner

Week 7 RANKINGS

WATCH: Week 7 Rankings By Position

Week 7 Injury Cheatsheet

J.K. Dobbins (knee) — OUT 4-6 Weeks

Cam Akers (Personal) — Likely OUT

Gus Edwards (Knee) — Likley OUT

Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — Likely IN

Nyhiem Hines (concussion) — Likely IN

Justice Hill — Likely IN

Damien Harris (Hamstring) — Likely IN

D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — Questionable

James Conner (Ribs) — DNP

Darrel Williams (knee) — DNP

Michael Thomas (Toe) — DNP

Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — DNP

Marquise Brown (Foot) — OUT 4-6 Weeks

Elijah Moore (Personal) — OUT

Julio Jones (Hamstring) — OUT

Josh Palmer (Concussion) — OUT

Jamal Agnew (Knee) — OUT

DJ Chark (Ankle) — OUT

Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — OUT

Kenny Golladay (knee) — OUT

Christian Watson (hamstring) — OUT

Randall Cobb (Ankle) — Placed on IR

Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) — Likely IN

Kennan Allen (hamstring) — Likely IN

Rashod Bateman (foot) — Likely IN

Sammy Watkins (hamstring) — Likely IN

Tyler Lockett (hamstring) — Likely IN

Marvin Jones (hamstring) — Likely IN

Josh Reynolds (knee) — Likely IN

Kendrick Bourne (Toe) — Questionable

Nelson Agholor (Hamstring) — Questionable

Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — Questionable

Adam Trautman (Leg) — DNP

Darren Waller (hamstring) — OUT

Logan Thomas (Knee) — OUT

Donald Parham (Concussion) — OUT

Cameron Brate (Neck) — OUT

Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Likely IN

Pat Freiermuth (concussion) — Likley IN

Russell Wilson (hamstring) — OUT

Kenny Pickett (Concussion) — IN

Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — Likely IN

PJ Walker — IN

Mac Jones (Ankle) — Likely IN

Carson Wentz (Thumb) — Placed on IR

Baker Mayfield (Ankle) — OUT

CJ CUP PICKS

Collin Morikawa

This is a blind wager whenever he drops to this price range. At a course where the shorter hitters will get more distance off the tee, accuracy and long irons will provide a distinct advantage. The travel from Japan may be worrisome, but I’m just glad he got a few competitive rounds under his belt.

Tyrrell Hatton

Second in this event when it replaced the Canadian Open in 2021, and that’s only because he couldn’t make a putt all week. He’s been quietly playing very well in Europe since the PGA season ended, and just needs to replicate his 2021 performance and keep rolling it like he has the last month for a dark horse run

WATCH: CJ CUP Picks, Bets, Preview

Jordan Spieth

Deems like a daunting task at a course at a course with such length, however, Spieth weirdly has the proper game from this layout. If he can tune his driver back up to what he was doing in the summer, his irons and putting can so good that’ll look for win No. 2 in South Carolina this year.

WATCH: CJ CUP DraftKings Picks

WEEK 7 BETTING NOTES

What is better than a flier bet placed early in the week based on real, factual trends that you forget about, check in and realize you are live? Combine all of these leans and you are looking at roughly +2500. I’ve selected a game in different game windows … you deserve hedge equity if you want it:

Saints at Cardinals
What a difference a day (of the week) makes.

2021-22 (Sundays): 46% favorites cover, 46.5% overs

2019-20 (Sundays): 46.7% favorites cover, 51.9% overs

2021-22 (Thursdays): 13-11 favorites, 7-17 overs

2019-20 (Thursdays): 11-20 favorites, 16-15 overs

Recently, favorites have had an edge on Thursdays whereas it the opposite was previously true and it has been no secret that some of these island games have been absolute duds from a scoring perspective.

Colts at Titans

This game on Sunday will be the 8th time since 2017 that AFC South teams met in Week 6 or later with a spread under a field goal. A lot of qualifiers? Maybe, but this is my newsletter, not yours. In those eight games, the favored team is 7-1 ATS (with their last six covers coming by more than 5 points)

Seahawks at Chargers

Justin Herbert is 6-2 outright when favored by at least six points. OK, that’s fine. In those six wins (we expect them to win this weekend, no?), his Bolts have scored at least 34 points every time.

Bears at Patriots

Since 2018, over tickets have cashed 62.5% of the time when the over/under fails to hit 41 points in a game with a team favored by more than the key number of six.

Week 7 DraftKings

Obviously, all the numbers will get fine tuned through the week injuries becomed settled and situations are made far more clear, but I always like to see what the inital run of numbers say after we have a clearer idea of what the injury report is going to be.

At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across each sim. The early sims LOVEEEEE a Bengals onslaught…

NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan

Remember the HUGE PRIZES available for TNF too. I run the early sims and here were the five most common linueps it spat out on this run of 10,000 simulations of the game. I didn’t wait for the system to update for DeAndre Hopkins (cominig tomorrow at Run The Sims), so I just plugged in Hopkins stats where Hollywood Brown was. Obviously don’t play Brown as he’s out 4-6 weeks.