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SUNDAY LIVE SHOWS (Click & Set a Reminder)
900am ET — PME START/SIT LIVE
945am ET — Week 6 DFS Picks, Process + Start/Sit Q&A
715pm ET PME SUNDAY NIGHT LIVE w/ Cust & Tambo
Week 6 Injury Report
RB
Austin Ekeler (Ankle) — IN
Rashaad Penny (illness) — Expected IN
Keaontay Ingram (Neck) — IN
Saquon Barkley (Ankle) — Game Time Decision; Leaning IN (SNF)
Elijah Mitchell (knee) — Questionable
Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) — OUT
Miles Sanders (shoulder) — OUT
Roschon Johnson (Concussion) — OUT
Jeff Wilson (finger, ribs) — Expected OUT; Would be on Snap Count if Activated
James Conner (Knee) — Placed on IR
De'Von Achane (Knee) — Placed on IR
Khalil Herbert (Ankle) — Placed on IR
Jamaal Williams (Hamstring) — OUT; On IR
Aaron Jones (Hamstring) — On Bye
WR
Tee Higgins (Ribs) — Expected IN
Quez Watkins (hamstring) — OUT
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Head) — OUT
Treylon Burks (knee) — OUT
Demario Douglas (Head) — OUT
Zay Jones (knee) — OUT
Tank Dell (Concussion) — Expected OUT
Tyquan Thornton (shoulder) — Activate; Expected IN
Wan’Dale Robinson (Concussion) — Expected IN
Mike Evans (Hamstring) — Expected IN
Hollywood Brown (Illness) — Expected IN
Diontae Johnson (Hamstring) — On Injured Reserve; Can return Week 7
Justin Jefferson (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
Justin Watson (Elbow) — Exited Game; no significant damage
Updated Week 6 Rankings Lists
RB https://bit.ly/23W6RBRanks
WR https://bit.ly/23W6WRRanks
QB https://bit.ly/23W6QBRanks
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W6TEDSTRanks
TE
Juwan Johnson (Calf) — OUT
Dalton Kincaid (Concussion) — Remains in Concussion Protocol; Questionable
Mo Alie-Cox (Concussion) — Remains in Concussion Protocol; Questionable
Dawson Knox (wrist) — Expected IN (SNF)
David Njoku (face/hands) — Expected IN
Donald Parham (Wrist) — Expected IN
Sam LaPorta (calf) — Expected IN
Pat Freiermuth (Hamstring) — On Bye
Greg Dulcich (hamstring) — Returned from IR; Exited Game
Ian Thomas (calf) — Placed on IR
QB
Daniel Jones (Neck) — OUT
Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) — OUT
Anthony Richardson (Shoulder) — On IR; Expected OUT 4-8 Weeks
PROPS
I heard from enough of you who were interested in a props only tool because you don’t care about DFS or simply live in a place where DFS cannot be played (shout out to my pals in Ontario and Washington St!) that we made the Prop Tools Only package available to everyone for subscription at a portion of the price of the full suite of tools.
This package is not just sportsbook props, there’s also a Prize Picks & Underdog pick’em tool included as well.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
These are the Two different types of views you’ll get for the sports book props. And this is what each view looks like hating Salvon Ahmed vs Carolina…
It seems terrifying as 14 point favorites that the backup Ahmed couldn’t just be fed the ball, but chatter from around the team this week is that Chris Brooks may start to see some more run. Fingers crossed that’s the case. Obviously, solo props are always the way to minimize risk, but I make entertainment decisions, not the most prudent EV decisions with these things, so I made a Same Game Parlay.
Then if you just decide to pile on this game, so you can get this! I actually went through and calculated each props’ percentage and it’s actaully a favorable wager. These combination of props hit 1.09% of the time and it’s implied it only hits 0.055%. Strong wager!
Every Sunday I run through the Injuries and build a SGP on the show, I tried to find anything with the London game but didn’t like much, so I went to the IND/JAX game and talked though this one…
WATCH: Week 6 Injury Update + Rankings + DraftKings Ownership | Props + Same Game Parlays
And of course, in this weeks edition of “Fastest way to lose $25”, the SUNDAY YOLO
Week 6 DraftKings Ownership & Top Plays
Justin Freeman released this handy cheatsheet to guide you quickly this weekend. This chart is from Saturday evening, so once inactives are releases, and certain players are offically ruled IN or OUT, everything will get a fresh update. But it should give you a good sense of what people are doing on DraftKings this week.
DraftKings Player Notes
STACK
With Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert all off of the main slate, creativity could well be rewarded this week (Run The Sims can help sort through your overall portfolio, use promocode MAYO). You'll want to monitor the status pregame, but if Amon-Ra St. Brown is a full-go, the concentration of this offense with Jared Goff leading the charge is awfully tempting against a Bucs defense that excels at stopping the run more than the pass. It also doesn't hurt that they are a pass first offense, so we could be looking at a high-scoring, high-possession count game.
CHALK
Raheem Mostert is going to garner a lot of attention this week - that doesn't make him a bad play. With De'Von Achane on the shelf, Mostert could see 18-20 touches in a favorable spot as a near two-touchdown favorite. What's not to like? He has a 20-yard touch in four straight games and could get a season high in touches. It may be chalky to bring it back with Adam Thielen, but if you're different elsewhere, that's among the better value skinny stacks on the Week 6 board.
PAY UP RB
I mentioned the creativity required in building your stack and if you go cheap there, there are a pair of higher priced RBs that have my attention. Christian McCaffrey is great, that much we know. But in a tough matchup, is he $2,300 better than Bijan Robinson? I mean, all the rookie is doing is averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry while catching 87% of his targets. We saw the Bears pick apart the Commanders last week and if Atlanta has success, Robinson will be front and center. I don't think he gets unleashed the way Breece Hall did last week, but he's a big play waiting to happen and could outscore CMC outright this week, let alone cover the price difference.
The Burrow/Chase stack is going to be popular this week. Either you missed it last week and have FOMO, or you cashed in with it last week and see no reason to pivot. I'm not saying you avoid the rebounding Bengals offense, I'm saying you go to Joe Mixon to get unique exposure. The Seahawks own the worst red zone defense in the NFL, something I doubt they were able to fix in a single bye week, putting a multi-score game for Mixon on the table. He's getting 22 touches in games this season when Cincy isn't beaten by 20.
TIGHT ENDS
Logan Thomas is a good player when healthy and guess what? He's healthy! The mini-bye should allow him to be as close to full strength as you can hope for and the starting TE for the Commanders has seen at least seven targets in four of five games.
Evan Engram is a way to get exposure to this Jaguars offense that looked better last week. Jaguar exposure might be a chalky idea, but with a variety of ways to do it, the ownership can only get so high on Engram (exactly eight targets in four straight).
PUNT D/ST
If you don't go with the Lions stack, playing the other side makes sense. The Bucs, off their bye, average three sacks and over two turnovers forced per game. The best way to rack up defensive fantasy points is opponent drop backs - if this Bucs front four can stuff David Montgomery, you could be looking at 40-45 Goff drop backs with a dinged up WR1. Goff isn't Jameis Winston, so I don't think I'll be playing the stack and the defense, but a lot of my lineups will have one or the other.
TL:DR
Jared Goff-Amon-Ra St. Brown: Concentrated pass game vs stout run defense
Raheem Mostert: 20 touch potential, OK to swallow chalk (Adam Thielen skinny stack?)
Bijan Robinson: Priced too far below Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall like explosion coming?
Joe Mixon: Scoring equity, game theory play off of the Burrow/Chase stack
Logan Thomas: Consistent volume, extended rest, high PPR floor
Evan Engram: Cheap way to bet on Jaguars' upward trending offense
Bucs D/ST: If you're off of DET, Bucs have had extra time to prepare for 40+ Goff drop backs
Week 6 Cheatsheets
You don’t wanna miss this week’s Cust Corner. It has an ALL TIME Cust moment. The Picks? Probably shitty.
WATCH: Week 6 Spread Picks & Cust Corner
The Best Bets show will be dropping Wednesday evening, but you CAN GET IT RIGHT NOW if you click the link…
WATCH: Week 6 Best Bets and Teaser
Restart Surivior
It finally happened. The restart survivor league IS HERE!!!!!! It starts in Week 7 (you can make your picks starting next Tuesday fyi). And since it was delayed in coming out, they’ve decided to make it FREEEEEEEEE to play and have $5,000 up top. There’s no legitimate reason not to play. Takes about 43 second to sign up, and less than 10s to make your pick every week, and you may win $5K.
PLAY IN RESTART SURIVIOR LEAGUE
Do me a favor and tell some people about it too. The more people who sign up, the more FREE MONEY they’ll give me to make a massive prize pool one to start next year. But if we don’t get the numbers, then they wont'. So let jam it full.
And let’s face it, you’re probably out of your Week 1 Survivor League anyway. REDEMTION TIME!!!!!!!
— PM