Week 6 Injuries (as of Friday Afternoon)
Next Update: Saturday Afternoon in new newsletter. So….
For your convenience, here are the Week 6 Rankings Lists. Will be updated SAT Evening.
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I still haven’t found the TB play I like to pair up with it yet, but Quez Watkins UNDER 3 receptions looks like a solid play on Prize Picks.
He hasn’t had more than 3 receptions in any of his five games thus far, and while he may be getting an uptick in routes run over Jalen Reagor the past few weeks, I went in an custom adjusted his target share up on Run The Sims and it’s still telling me UNDER is the play here.
If you only care about the weekend me and Mike Leone talked about each position on the DraftKings Main Slate for Week 6
Week 6 GALAXY BRAIN PLAY
WARNING – STOP READING IF YOU ARE NOT FULLY PREPARED FOR STORYTIME. THIS IS A TRIP INSIDE MY HEAD.
YOU’VE BEEN WARNED …
(I’ll include player notes in the later newsletter. More information with injuries/roles and this is already a lot to consume!)
Galaxy Brain Time: Sam Darnold (vs MIN)
Based on rush attempts and where throws took place on the field, no player underachieved more in a fantasy sense last week than Darnold. He scored just 35.3% of the points we would have projected if given his usage report pre-game (consider this: given the scripts, he would have projected out favorably to Dak Prescott last week … yet Prescott more than tripled his production). If this was still safe space Sam from years past, that’d make sense. He was ANDERCURSED and had Adam Gase calling the shots. A week like this may have actually been viewed as a win in those days. Let me continue to say just how bad he was last week … mindset is everything in DFS and this is to drive home the point why I think his roster% will be far lower than it should be on the Week 6 main slate. Here are the four instances this season in which a QB failed to score even 40% of their expected points (min. 35 passes thrown):
Week 3: Zach Wilson at DEN: 21.6% of his expected points
Week 2: Jacoby Brissett vs BUF: 30.5%
Week 1: Andy Dalton at LAR: 34.6%
Week 5: Sam Darnold vs PHI: 35.3%
The first three are Darnold with the Jets type situations. I mean, the worst game is literally this year’s version of 2020 Sam Darnold and the other two are backups. Point being … anyone that watched football, models football or even casually cares about the game is well aware of how bad Darnold was in Week 5. BUY TIME.
In the first four weeks of the season, Darnold ranked 9th among QBs in points above expectation (he was scoring 20.6% more points given his usage than expectation). He was #good. Really good. That rate ranked ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady to name a few.
Here’s where you need to stick with me. Three times this season has a QB had absolutely elite usage (21+ expected points) and still managed to overachieve to the tune of a 30-piece:
Week 4: Sam Darnold at DAL: 31.5 points (expected: 21.6)
Week 2: Kyler Murray vs MIN: 33.1 points (expected: 21.4)
Week 3: Josh Allen vs WFT: 37.2 points (expected: 23.9)
So, Darnold and two home QBs, one of which came against the Vikings? In Week 6, we get Darnold … at home … against the Vikings … priced as QB10 on a main slate that features only 20 teams with three big-time producers (Brady, Hurts and Allen) not a part of the fun.
Final step: lineup construction. Double stack and yes that means another dirty feeling click. Robby Anderson. The Vikes played three fantasy viable QBs to open the season and they allowed 64.7% of deep passes to be completed (for reference, the running 3-year NFL average is 45.5%). Anderson ranks T-7th in air yards over the past two weeks (ahead of Cooper Kupp, ahead of Tyreek Hill, ahead of Stefon Diggs) and yet somehow ranks outside of the top-60 receivers in yards over that stretch. The last time we went this route, the process was right, but the results…
Prefer visual proof? Same game, different play. This pass is worth the 100-yard bonus, a TD and allllll the DK dollars. This pass basically landed out of bounds. Not ideal. But they are trying and Darnold/Anderson has shown enough to suck me back in one more time.
No, YOU wake up in cold sweats thinking about what if this pass was on target. Anyway, if you’ve stuck around for this entire class on how to overthink constructing a Week 6 DFS lineup, here is how I’m putting this stack into play. God help you if you tail, but here it is:
I couldn’t decide, so you get two for the price of one free newsletter. The one on the right leaves $300 on the table. It’s a 3v3: Chubb-Hardman-Colts D vs Henderson-Gibson-Lions D. I’ll pick one for the late week newsletter, but which way would you go? Let me know and SHARE this newsletter around while you’re at it, OK?
Week 6 DraftKings
If you need do to your research for the week’s slate, I recommend using the Run The Sims advanced stats hub before jumping over to the DFS Optimizer and making your own alterations.
Additionally, Peter Overzet walked through the main slate to give you a head start. I’ll be doing my break down with Mike Leone from ETR Thursday morning.
Also, Pete just released this week about NFT Bros and it fucking slayed me…
More Free $$$
Starting at 12pm ET on my Twitter, @ThePME, I’ll be tweeting out the way to win one of 50 FREE DraftKings Milly Maker tickets. Takes like 4 seconds to enter, may as well do it.
CJ CUP Golf Picks
Rick Gehman is going to at the course in Vegas this week and he joined me on the CJ Cup picks and bets show this week. It’s always a treat getting to chat with Rick.
Here’s what I came up with. A no cut event leads me away from the bombs. (I’m still tempted to FOMO bet Si WOOO and Reed at their numbers but I haven’t pulled the trigger yet.
I don’t really care that he’s a member at the course, that’s always overblown, what I do care about is this is a second shot course on Bentgrass greens: The Morikawa special. He’s the best iron player on the planet, now we pray it’s one of the five events in the year the gains strokes putting. He’s not necessarily a value at his price, but it’s crazy he isn’t equal to DJ or JT in the betting market.
VIK lost -8.9 strokes around the green last week. EIGHT POINT NINE STROKES!!!!!! I’ve never seen a number that high. How bad is that? Well, we can recall some pretty horrendous chipping efforts from Hovland in the past, yet he’d never been worse than -3.9 in any other event in his career. It’s an outlier. What’s not, was Hovland leading all players in ball striking at Shriners.
Like i mentioned, in no-cut fields you really don’t want to go too low on the betting board. English missed the cut a week ago. How exactly? Well, it was the worse per round putting event of his career. If he rebounds with the flat stick, English will just need to play to his regular T2G baseline to contend.
Yes, it’s a Fazio design, but I’ll be off Rory at least until he start finishing better in tournaments than Rory Sabbatini.
30/1? I’ll take it on Brooks every time. Don’t care that he’d rather be partying.
Here’s the full DK cheatsheet for the CJ CUP
Sky is out this week on the EURO show, but Ryan Baroff stepped in as a replacement to chat with Tom. Watch/Listen to the Picks show here for the second straight event in Spain.
Kenny and Tambo released FGD Tuesday this week if you were looking for it.
Since the CJ Cup doesn’t start until late morning ET on Thursday and it’s a no cut event, you’ll want to play pure ownership on DraftKings this week. I’d recommend using the Fantasy National Ownership Projections late Wednesday or Early Thursday before submitting your rosters.
Not going to lie, it’s the worst effort of the year from the three of us. Poor Geoff is now so old he can’t shake a Vegas hangover after two full days of recovery.
Remember to sub to the Newsletter so the Spread Show just gets sent to you automatically every week.
2021 Fantasy Basketball Rankings
Doing an NBA draft? Have no clue what you’re doing, like myself? BOOOOOOM RANKINGS
NBA season is a week away. You ready? Here are the updated ranks with COVID Kyrie falling down. Take him earlier if you want, he could win you your league. He’s also looking at a current world that won’t allow him play even half the season. Does he get vaccinated? Tough to say, but outside of the top-50 is the price we are willing to pay. The colored ranks represent tiers. Tiers of joy. Basketball season is so so close!