WEEK 6 PICKS
Prize Picks is giving away free money again. Use code “MMNNFL” at PrizePicks.com and it qualifies you for the Derrick Henry rushing BONUS MONEY on MNF. First time players deposit using code “MMNNFL,” get a match bonus up to $100, play a MNF Prize Picks entry (doesn’t have to include Henry btw), and get that FREE $25. Only guaranteed win you bank on this week.
Now that you have $$$ on Prize Picks, get in on the MMN Props Contest and BONUS $$$. Take advantage of the bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. It has to be ALL SUNDAY players for this to qualify as a heads up. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment. Perfect for anyone trying to build a bank roll.
Here’s my fav Prize Picks players this week. Now you know what to fade.
Patrick Mahomes o 14.5 rushing yards
Mo Alie Cox o20.5 REC YARDS
Allen Robinson U50.5 REC YARDS
Terrance Marshall U34.5 REC YARDS
JD McKissic O23.5 REC YARDS
Khalil Herbert O9.5 REC YARDS
Antonio Gibson O 0.5 ANY TD
Darrel Williams O 0.5 ANY TD
Week 6 Injuries & Rankings
This is how everything stands as of SUNDAY MORNING, I’ll update this before the London game on Sunday if anything changes, but it seems like everyone who is hurt as been identified already
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Christian McCaffrey (hammy) OUT; on IR
Nick Chubb (Calf) OUT
Chris Carson (Neck) OUT; on IR
Damien Willians (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Samaje Perine (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Kareem Hunt (Wrist/Knee) IN
Dalvin Cook (ankle) IN
Joe Mixon (ankle) IN
Melvin Gordon (hip) Likely IN
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) OUT
Saquon Barkley (ankle) OUT
Damien Harris (chest) Expected to Play
Rex Burkhead (hip) QUESTIONABLE
Preston Williams OUT
Adam Shaheen OUT
Terry McLaurin Likely IN
Rashod Bateman (core) IN
Jarvis Landry Activated from IR; OUT
Mike Williams (ankle) Expected to play
Kadarius Toney (ankle) Likely IN
Allen Robinson (ankle) Likely IN
Darnell Mooney (groin) Likely IN
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) OUT
Tyreek Hill (Quad) Likely IN
Kenny Golladay (knee) OUT
Curtis Samuel (groin) OUT
JuJu Smith-Schuster (shoulder) OUT
Quintez Cephus (shoulder) OUT
Julio Jones (hamstring) Likely IN
DeVante Parker (hammy) OUT
Will Fuller (finger) OUT
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) IN
Darius Slayton (hamstring) Game Time Decision
Dyami Brown (knee) Likely to Play
James Washington (groin) Likely IN
Cam Sims OUT
Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) IN
Joe Burrow (throat) IN
Daniel Jones (concussion) IN
Russell Wilson (finger) OUT 6-8 Weeks
Kliff Kingsbury (COVID 19) OUT
The Rankings are fully updated as well as of Sunday morning.
Week 6 Player Notes
Matthew Stafford: 0.61
Dak Prescott: 0.61
Patrick Mahomes: 0.57
Joe Burrow: 0.57
Tom Brady: 0.56
What is this you ask? This list, which has four of the top-6 current MVP betting favorites, is the top fantasy QBs on a per pass basis (minimum 25 pass attempts per game). Yea, Joe Burrow has been that sort of impressive this season and he gets the Lions this week, a defense allowing a league-high 10 yards per pass this season. Oh, and on DraftKings, Burrow is 14.5% cheaper, on average, than the other names on this list that are on the Week 6 Main Slate.
On Friday afternoon, Nick Chubb was ruled OUT. So stop reading and tweak your season long leagues NOW. Kareem Hunt has been great this season (17-game pace: 1,510 total yards with 17 scores) … and he should be even better this week. Yes, the spike in volume is great, but it’s the quality in this specific spot of that volume that should have you excited. Chubb has out-carried Hunt 55-19 on interior runs (Hunt holds a 36-35 edge on designs elsewhere). The Cardinals are allowing the second most yards to RBs on such carries this season. And now you’re telling me Hunt gets those carries. I’m in!
Speaking of divided backfields, is this Javonte Williams week? Maybe? Finally? Hopefully? The Raiders allow the 8th most yards per carry after contact to RBs this season, which, you’d think, would pave the way for a young, explosive back. In other words, not Melvin Gordon. Yea yea yea, Gordon’s numbers look fine, but remove that garbage time 70-yard run in Week 1 and we are talking about under 3.6 yards per carry. The rook has a 15+ yard touch in four straight and I wouldn’t be surprised if when he extends that streak on Sunday, it’s in a slate-breaking sorta way.
Allen Robinson has scored in just 1 of his 7 career games against the Packers and he’s never caught even 62% of his targets against them.
Wanna wake up Sunday morning with some points on the board in your redraft league? Or maybe a sneaky guy to overweight in London showdown slates? Jaylen Waddle has caught 3 of 4 slot targets for 44 yards and a TD from Tua this season (all other Dolphins: 0 catches on 2 targets). The Jaguars rank in the bottom quarter of the league in completion percentage, completions and yards per attempt to the slot this season.
Galaxy Brain Time: Justin Herbert
Fade spot on Herbert? Don’t tell Geoff, but I think so. Or at least the numbers do. Based on where his usage came from last week, the average QB would have rung up 18.2 fantasy points … not 42.8. Herbert isn’t average, but is he 2.35x better than the league norm? That feels like a lot and now he gets a Ravens defense that ranks 5th in blitz rate this season. For his career, Herbert ranks 23rd in fantasy points per blitzed attempt and throws a TD on just 5.9% of those attempts (for reference, that ranks behind stars like Andy Dalton and Gardner Minshew). Toss that in with the fact that the Ravens, due to their scheme, operate at the slowest pace since the beginning of 2019 and face an analytics driven coach that would rather be beat on the ground … this could be a lower possession game than the public seems to expect.
Now for the fun part. If you’re not rostering Herbert this week (especially if you’re getting nuts and following this section from Tuesday’s newsletter and double stacking Sam Darnold again), you’re betting against him, no? So why not embrace that. Fully. Over the past four weeks, the Chargers allow pressure on 44.7% of blitzes (after one whole week of protecting against the blitz at a high level) and when do mistakes happen? When feeling the heat. Over the past decade, here are changes in league wide stats when pressured against when NOT pressured:
*Pass TD rate dips by 21%
*Interception rate spikes by 67%
*Off-Target rate balloons to 89%
And the defense would like to make one closing argument. What has made Herbert great this season? Not Keenan Allen, it’s been Mike Williams. The same Mike Williams who has been limited this week as he battles a knee issue. The same Mike Williams that is averaging 1 catch ever 13 routes run when Herbert has been pressured this season (1 catch every 5 non-pressured routes). Below are two routes for the Darnold Double … the first one I tweaked for the Nick Chubb news. Is there some chalk here? Yes. But I don’t expect the Panther stack to be all that common, the BAL D/ST probably less so and the Conklin bring back even less so. Remember, it’s about how chalky your lineup is, not how chalky individuals within your lineup are! I want screen shots if you guys run this out there … so I know who I am sweating this craziness with!
(and I answered my own question that I asked Leone on Friday’s pod as to how to fit Davante Adams into a lineup!)
If you’re wondering where Leone and I landed for the “SHITTER GUY” Lineup, here it is.
With all the new information, there’s ZERO CHANCE Shitter guy doesn’t play Kareem Hunt.
Because of all the injuries it’s difficult to get a gauge on a lot of ownership in large field GPPs outside of the very top level. That said, can’t hurt to guess!
Kareem Hunt 30%+
Darrell Henderson 15%+
Austin Ekeler 15%+
That leaves Cook, Aaron Jones, and Zeke all firmly in the single digit ownership level. Pick your spot, get it right and cash in. Also, because of Hunt and the Henderson value, the replacement RBs have all seen a tick down in expected ownership. Williams, Herbert, and Booker will all likely flirt with 10% ownership so look at Chuba Hubbard at $5,900 instead. Prob sub 5% and likely a similar role to Hunt. He’s not as good as Hunt, but you’re getting him for cheaper and at 10x lesser owned.
Chiefs and Football Team Members
To no shock, this is the DraftKings game of the week. No one is even worried McLaurin didn’t practice Friday. I don’t blame them. It’s probably easier to identify who isn’t going to be played much in this game rather than the inverse.
JD McKissic $4,800 - If this game goes to script, there’s a lot of passes to be caught from JD.
Antonio Gibson $6,500 - I’m guessing it’s the price and lack of full time pass catching role, however, Gibson is best shot on Washington to find multiple scores. AND, the spread (KC -6.5) doesn’t have this game to be projected to be a complete blowout. He’s the upside sub-5% stud in this match up.
And that’s really it. Even Hardman could sneak into double digits.
For the One-off WR group chalk
Week 6 NFL Bets
Friday, we learned Cam has no time to write essays and his definition of horse is “more than an animal.” We also got me and Pizzola squaring off with our GOLD PICKS. Rob’s firmly on the sharp side, I’ll admit that; I just think Dallas pounds them.
The full Game-By-GamePicks breakdown, featuring Cust’s insane ramblings about Monopoly and trying to squeeze MAX VALUE from a buffet came out Wednesday, but it’s still worth a watch/listen, obviously.
I’ll be hitting more life advice along with the recap Monday morning. If you have a Q for that, send it to email@example.com
Good luck this week.