THURSDAY UPDATE + INJURIES + TNF
Chris Carson (Neck) OUT as of 6:39pm ET
Gerald Everett (COVID) OUT as of 6:39pm ET
Carson has been taken out of the rankings, and Alex Collins has moved up to RB21 as he’s expected to handle most of the Carson role. Travis Homer inches up to RB45 as he’s been seeing the field more than DeeJay Dallas over the first part of the season, and was used in that pass catching role in spurts a year ago when the Seattle backfield was losing members at a rapid rate. If the Seahawks fall behind and are forced into the air quicker than expected, Collins won’t be written out of the game, but you could see how he and Homer ned up a lot closer in snap share than expected.
For DK TNF showdown, D'Wayne Eskridge has been placed on IR and they will activate Phillip Dorsett for Thursday’s Game. Many will turn to Freddie Swain (because he’s better), but if Dorsett gets some run he’s only $300, makes every line up work, and 80% of people won’t even know he’s playing.
You can simulate this game 10,000 times at Run The Sims with your own inputs to generate and export lineups for yourself. Make life easy.
If you want to get in on the TNF with a FREE PLAY. Prize Picks is running an up to $100 RISK FREE play for new depositors on TNF when you sign up with code “MMNNFL”. May as well try to triple your $$$ with a risk free play.
So, first time players, use code “MMNNFL” at Prize Picks for a risk free bet up to $100.
ALL WEEK 5 POSITION RANKINGS
RB https://bit.ly/21W5RBs
WR https://bit.ly/21W5WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W5QBranks
TE https://bit.ly/21W5TEDSTs
Here’s what I’m playing tonight. (Those are RUSH + REC TDs btw)
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT SUNDAY
Russell Gage (ankle) OUT SUNDAY
Cordarrelle Patterson has also vaulted up to RB23 with the news that Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are both OUT for the London game against the Jets. This likely leads to a scenario where CPATT sees more run at WR with the void needing to be fill, and a large section of the target share up for grabs. Watch this be the week where he actually see the snap volume and the efficiency completely evaporates. Olamide Zaccheaus moved up to WR45 (in the Darnell Mooney “Toons”/Kalif Raymond tier) while Tajae Sharpe is now in at WR80. We’ll have to see if Christian Blake is active for the game for maybe a clue on which other ATL WR is going to be on the field with Oz, but last week Sharpe was third behind Ridley and Oz with 14 routes run. Wouldn’t play him, but he could be a Sunday Morning DraftKings showdown Candidate (or over prop player once they readjust) if he maintains his role in the Falcons offense.
Also, down these weapons, with a terrible offensive line, the Jets DST isn’t an awful play in this spot.
Other Week 5 Injuries to Watch
WR
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT SUNDAY
Russell Gage (ankle) OUT SUNDAY
Curtis Samuel (hamstring) DNP THUS; QUESTIONABLE
Amari Cooper (hammy) Back at Practice THUS; Likely IN
AJ Brown (hamstring) Limited Practice
Julio Jones (hamstring) DNP
Nick Westbrooke-Ikhine Limited Practice
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) DNP
Darius Slayton (hamstring) DNP
Kenny Golladay (hip); Limited
Tee Higgins (shoulder) Limited; Likely IN
Elijah Moore (concession) Likely IN
Chase Claypool (hammy) Limited Practice; Likely IN
Danny Amendola (tight) Limited; QUESTIONABLE
RB
Joe Mixon (ankle) Likely OUT
Christian McCaffrey (hammy) Back at Practice; May Play
Dalvin Cook (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Gio Bernard (knee) Limited practice; Likely IN
Ezekiel Elliott (knee) Limited Practice; Likely IN
TE
George Kittle (calf) DNP; Probably still play
Albert Okwuegbunam (hammy) Hurt in practice WED; DNP THUS
QB
Teddy Bridgewater(concussion) Limited practice THUS; Likely IN
Jimmy G; Probably OUT
Justin Fields named starter
From Original Newsletter
Thursday Night Galaxy Braining: Tyler Lockett
In the first two weeks of the season, Cooper Kupp was the only receiver better than Tyler Lockett. Over the past two weeks, Lockett is not a top-70 fantasy receiver. Elite ceiling, crippling floor. That’s fun. What better player to try to connect some crazy dots for?
In the Week preceding his Top 5 career games …
83% catch rate (he’s caught at least 80% of targets in 4 of 5 games)
SEA is 5-0 (with 4 of those wins coming in one score games)
All 5 games came on the West Coast
So … what happened last week?
80% catch rate
SEA won 28-21
The game was played at San Francisco
“But Pat, it’s so tough to play a guy after two games with under 45 yards heading into a tough divisional game”
Well, random voice in my head, that was the narrative late last season. He had 7 catches for 78 yards total in Weeks 15-16 before going off against the Niners for 12 catches, 90 yards and a pair of scores. Over the past two weeks: 8 catches for 55 yards. Four times in four weeks has a WR scored over 17.5 DK points against the Rams.
Use code MMN at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100 if you want to get in on that over/under ACTION.
BTW, you can still get into the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. Even if you don’t think you can’t catch up (you definitely can’t at this point), take advantage of the bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment. Perfect for anyone trying to build a bank roll.
Without considering the trends, and just using the baseline projections from RuntheSims.com, Lockett’s yardage projections is well over the number.
Week 5 Player Notes
Many more coming in the Saturday newsletter, including another Galaxy Brain segment that will tie your mind in knots … while making a very strong argument. Stay tuned. Better yet, stay tuned and SHARE with your friends. Either the advice is rock solid and your friends appreciate you. OR. The overthinking fails, sinks your friends, and propels you up your standings. You. Can’t. Lose.
WATCH: Week 5 DraftKings Research
5 players in NFL history have multiple games with 300 pass yards AND multiple rushing scores
*Tom Brady
*Cam Newton
*Aaron Rodgers
*Steve Young
*Sam Darnold (he’s done it in each of the past 2 weeks)
Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 10 carries inside the opponents’ 10-yard line this season. On those carries, he’s lost 6 yards. Over the past decade, RB’s are averaging 1.94 fantasy points per carry inside the 10. That means we’d expect Taylor to have scored 19.4 points on those carries, an expectation he is 20 points shy of meeting.
How big of a role could be vacated as a result of the Joe Mixon injury? He’s handled 85.7% of CIN RB touches, a rate that trails only Najee Harris (95.3%) at the position.
Kyle Pitts has run a route 77.8% of ATL drop backs, a rate that trails only Darren Waller and TJ Hockenson at the position. No, he hasn’t scored yet. And no, he’s no exactly on the historic trajectory that everyone had him on this preseason. But if you think Matt Ryan’s arm is a bit cooked, this is a note worth acting on … Pitts has a 25.8% target market share on passes thrown 5-15 yards and 10% on all other throws. My confidence is fading in Ryan, but I think he can handle those intermediate passes and that should be enough elevate Pitts above what we’ve seen thus far.
Jake mentioned Jamison Crowder’s scoring potential on the Week 5 Rankings Podcast, and it turns out he’s right. The dude has played one game … he has twice as many red zone targets as all other Jet receivers. This SEASON.
Here’s the link to the Week 5 spread show btw. Help us out by subbing to this newsletter and, if you can find it in your heart, share this around.
Oh, and a direct Listener’s League link for NFL if you want it. Approaching 1000 entries already, so lock yours up now.
Shriners Children’s Open
Here’s the bets for the week in golf. I went over most of them with Ben Rasa on the show this week.
For both betting and on DK, I just love this mid-range. The top is filled with quality players, but the difference between them and this level is all that pronounced IMO. Those inflated odds on Wolff, Scott and Mito are from Coolbet if anyone is wondering.
Patrick Reed — While statistically not the premier play on the board, a motivated Patrick Reed is tough to pass on. Especially at a number we get in Majors. This field is good, it’s not MAJOR good however. If you bet Reed at this number in every event in his career, you’d be up a lot of money in that stretch.
Mito Pereria — Mito week didn’t happen for us at Sanderson Farms, but I see no reason to jump off at a better number. TPC Summerlin has been a breakthrough spot for young players in the past, so he fits a narrative (always fun!), but it’s really the numbers which point us towards to the Chilean. After a T3 in Napa to kick off the season, his T31 in Jackson last week was actually much better than it appeared. He was second to only Sam Burns in ball striking and was sunk by a pitiful -4.7 gained (well, lost) putting. The worst mark in this PGA career.
Joseph Bramlett — He’s sort of like a low rent Mito this week. The driving and irons have been immaculate in his first two start, he just can’t chip or putt. Now, this is nothing new, but it also means he doesn’t have to gain many to value massively up the leaderboard either. If you catch him on the right week, like when he won the KFT Championship last month, the putter can certainly be good enough. He’s currently doing the hard part well, just need to get lucky on the greens.
]If you want my DraftKings cheatsheet with the picks and course info for the week, IT HERE!!!! Or, if you wanna run your own modeling and look up the stats for the players and course, simply use Fantasy National.
If you think I suck (you’d probably be correct), so here are some different point of views on the event this week.
Kenny & Tambo on the Fantasy Golf Degenerates
Tom & Sky for Spanish Open EURO picks.
Oh, there are some solid PGA over/unders on Prize Picks this week too. Code MMN will ALWAYS get you the $100 match deposit, but if you have a lean on certain players this week, there are some generous finishing position props to take advantage of.
DraftKings Ownership, I find, is tougher to predict during these swing season events, but I’ll go
BIG DICK VIK 23%
Ancer 22%
WEBB 19%
MITO 18%
Hideki 17%
Oh, Kevin Na withdrew in case you missed that.
The Toddfather has now pulled chute on the Shriners too
See ya Saturday with the NFL injuries and full player breakdowns.
— PM