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Week 5 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, DK Notes

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Week 5 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, DK Notes

+ Golf Bets & Not So Secret Link

Mayo Media
Oct 4, 2022
6
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Week 5 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, DK Notes

mayomedia.substack.com

NEW CONTENT

WEEK 5 BEST BETS

Week 5 DraftKings Picks

ALERT!!!! Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”: https://bit.ly/JOCKMKTMMN

Week 5 SPREADS

I got fat fingers and accidentally hit “publish” instead of “Schedule” on the podcast, so it’s OUT NOW on all audio and video platforms. Yes, we do spreads and a McDonald’s Monopoly sticker break, but Cust also talks about his want to become a bingo number caller, and how he watches it on TV without any skin n the game. Weird stuff.

WATCH: Week 5 Spreads, Monopoly & Cust Corner

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes

Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

Twitter avatar for @ThePME
Pat Mayo @ThePME
Finger slipped and hit "Publish" instead of "Schedule". So... NEWWWW!!!!!! Week 5 Spread Picks & Cust Corner w/ @timanderson87 & @gfienberg17 youtu.be/BuEgqi0B7L8 Apple: bit.ly/PMEiTunes Spotify: goo.gl/VboemH A LIVE sticker rip, just for Cust...
11:28 PM ∙ Oct 4, 2022

While you’re here, you may as well get in the Listerner’s League before it’s too late.

Week 5 PME DraftKings Listeners League LINK

Oh, and if you want some cash to play on a new DFS Site, email thepatmayoexperience@gmail.com with the subject line “FREE MONEY”

Week 5 Injury Cheatsheet

Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — Missed Week 5

D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — OUT

Justice Hill — OUT

Brian Robinson (GUNSHOT) — Likley IN

Alvin Kamara (Ribs) — Likely IN

David Montgomery (Ankle/Knee) — Questionable

Boston Scott (Ribs) — Questionable

Javonte Williams (Knee) — OUT FOR SEASON

Gus Edwards (Knee) — Designated To Return; Likely OUT

Cordarrelle Patterson (Knee) — Plasced on IR (Out at least 4 weeks)

WEEK 5 RANKINGS

WATCH: WEEK 5 RANKIINGS DEBATE BY POSITION

RB bit.ly/22W5RBRanks

WR bit.ly/22W5WRRanks

QB bit.ly/22W5QBRanks

TE/DST bit.ly/22W5TEDST

WR

Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — OUT

Jamison Crowder (ankle) — OUT

Laviska Shenault (Hamstring) — Likley OUT

Kenny Golladay (knee) — OUT

Treylon Burks (Foot) — OUT; Likely a few weeks

Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUT

DJ Chark (Ankle) — OUT

Kennan Allen (hamstring) — OUT

Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — Likely Out

Rashod Bateman (foot) — OUT

Quintez Cephus (Foot) — OUT

Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT

Jake Kumerow (ankle) — OUT

AJ Green (Knee) — Likely IN

Isaiah McKenzie (Concussion) — Likley IN

Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — Likley IN

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ankle) — Questionable

Ceedee Lamb (groin) — Questionable

Tyreek Hill (quad) — Questionable

Russell Gage (back) — Questionable

Diontae Johnson (hip) — Questionable

Jakobi Meyers (knee) — Questionable

Zay Jones — Questionable

TE

Kyle Pitts (hamstring) — OUT

Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — OUT

Cameron Brate (Concussion) — OUT

Jonnu Smith (Ankle) — Likely OUT

QB

Brian Hoyer (Head) — OUT

Mac Jones (Ankle) — Likely OUT

Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — OUT

Daniel Jones (Ankle) — IIN (London Game)

Jameis Winston (Back) — Likely OUT; Dalton Starting Regardless

SHRINERS OPEN

WATCH: SHRINERS OPEN PICKS, BETS, RESEARCH

Emiliano Grillo — It’s tough by passing the top of the board with so much win expectancy up there amount the top 3, but Grillo is teetering on the verge of a win, and we need to pounce (just like he does) before the putter turns back into a pumpkin. 

KH Lee +6500 — TPC Lee at a TPC track? LETS GOOOOO!!!!!!! Was rolling through the playoffs with excellent ball striking before hitting the skids at the TOUR Championship, but rebounded quite nicely as a massive underdog in all his matches at the Presidents Cup. Gains on the field in fairways, which is helpful at a course that doesn’t require players to be long drive champions. Already a two-time winner on TOUR, he’s fallen deeper down the board than many who have proved only that the can’t close when the pressures on. 

Troy Merritt — Has gained on approach in his past six starts at TPC Summerlin, and at least +2.4 SG: APP in four of his past five overall entering play. His putter is currently running extremely cold, so his killed his odds, however Merritt has gained an average of a stroke per event on the greens in his career versus the -2.2 SG: PUTT he’s lost over his past five starts. Buy the dip. 

If it’s DraftKings you DEMAND, Tambo and Kenny have you covered during the swing season…

WATCH: SHRINERS DRAFTKINGS PICKS

I did do a cheatsheet of my picks up if you care about that

CHEATSHEET: SHRINERS DK PICKS

GALAXY BRAIN: Just Don’t Be Stupid

DFS is such a hard game, so why make it harder? We are coming off a week where three elite QBs fell well short of expectations (Allen, Jackson and Hurts combined for twice as many interceptions as TD passes) and the Jared Goff (you’re welcome for that in this space last week) Geno Smith showdown resulted in seven figure pays days. Great. You know what that was? It was last week. Not this week.

I suspect that paying down for QB will be more popular this week than most because of how much that strategy paid off this past week. Awesome. Let the field do that. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are priced well above the rest of the field with Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert well ahead of Tier 3 … they might be the top four per dollar QBs this week. If I’m ranking them, price factored in, I’m tempted to go Hurts – Herbert – Allen – Murray. Why Hurts?

  • Over/under is flirting with 50 points

  • He is 7 designed runs from matching his 2021 total

  • Arizona is top-10 in pace and has skill guys to make this fun

  • Arizona blitzes like crazy …

  • Blitz and force Hurts to move (yes please!)

  • They rank 20th in pressure rate when NOT blitzing

  • Hurts is the 4th most accurate pressure when not blitzed this season

You’re telling me I get all of that and I don’t have to sell my soul to get a low ownership number? Let’s keep going. Pair Hurts with two primary receivers, bring it back with Zach Ertz and maybe even pay up for the Birds defense … thought being that this playground Kyler attack eventually gives an elite defense like this a chance to break the slate … and you’re on your way. Maybe a skinny Raheem Mostert/Elijah Moore stack? Sure. Want to go chalk with Rhamondre Stevenson? Go for it. It often takes extreme creativity and finesse to profit in these GPP’s … but after a week of QB failures, Week 5’s main slate has rare “don’t be dumb” upside.

Week 5 DraftKings Main Slate

Obviously, all the numbers will get fine tuned through the week injuries becomed settled and situations are made far more clear, but I always like to see what the inital run of numbers say after we have a clearer idea of what the injury report is going to be.

At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across each sim. And to no surprise, the Sims can’t quit uncle Leo, and the projections, as all projection models do, LOVVVVEEEEEE Rondale Moore.

NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan

With the injuries and Allen Robinson’s corpse being propped up Weekend at Bernie’s style, the Rams passing attack is uber concentrated with Kupp and Higbee now. Stack up those two with Stafford is gross, but maybe a solid play. We’ll see if I end up there on Friday’s show with Tambo.

Week 5 Spread Picks Cheatsheet

WATCH: Week 5 Spreads, Monopoly & Cust Corner

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes

Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

— PM

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Week 5 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, DK Notes

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