Discover more from Mayo Media Newsletter
Week 5 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, DK Notes
+ Golf Bets & Not So Secret Link
ALERT!!!! Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”: https://bit.ly/JOCKMKTMMN
Week 5 SPREADS
I got fat fingers and accidentally hit “publish” instead of “Schedule” on the podcast, so it’s OUT NOW on all audio and video platforms. Yes, we do spreads and a McDonald’s Monopoly sticker break, but Cust also talks about his want to become a bingo number caller, and how he watches it on TV without any skin n the game. Weird stuff.
While you’re here, you may as well get in the Listerner’s League before it’s too late.
Oh, and if you want some cash to play on a new DFS Site, email firstname.lastname@example.org with the subject line “FREE MONEY”
Week 5 Injury Cheatsheet
Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — Missed Week 5
D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — OUT
Justice Hill — OUT
Brian Robinson (GUNSHOT) — Likley IN
Alvin Kamara (Ribs) — Likely IN
David Montgomery (Ankle/Knee) — Questionable
Boston Scott (Ribs) — Questionable
Javonte Williams (Knee) — OUT FOR SEASON
Gus Edwards (Knee) — Designated To Return; Likely OUT
Cordarrelle Patterson (Knee) — Plasced on IR (Out at least 4 weeks)
WEEK 5 RANKINGS
Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — OUT
Jamison Crowder (ankle) — OUT
Laviska Shenault (Hamstring) — Likley OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) — OUT
Treylon Burks (Foot) — OUT; Likely a few weeks
Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUT
DJ Chark (Ankle) — OUT
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — OUT
Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — Likely Out
Rashod Bateman (foot) — OUT
Quintez Cephus (Foot) — OUT
Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT
Jake Kumerow (ankle) — OUT
AJ Green (Knee) — Likely IN
Isaiah McKenzie (Concussion) — Likley IN
Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — Likley IN
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ankle) — Questionable
Ceedee Lamb (groin) — Questionable
Tyreek Hill (quad) — Questionable
Russell Gage (back) — Questionable
Diontae Johnson (hip) — Questionable
Jakobi Meyers (knee) — Questionable
Zay Jones — Questionable
Kyle Pitts (hamstring) — OUT
Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — OUT
Cameron Brate (Concussion) — OUT
Jonnu Smith (Ankle) — Likely OUT
Brian Hoyer (Head) — OUT
Mac Jones (Ankle) — Likely OUT
Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — OUT
Daniel Jones (Ankle) — IIN (London Game)
Jameis Winston (Back) — Likely OUT; Dalton Starting Regardless
Emiliano Grillo — It’s tough by passing the top of the board with so much win expectancy up there amount the top 3, but Grillo is teetering on the verge of a win, and we need to pounce (just like he does) before the putter turns back into a pumpkin.
KH Lee +6500 — TPC Lee at a TPC track? LETS GOOOOO!!!!!!! Was rolling through the playoffs with excellent ball striking before hitting the skids at the TOUR Championship, but rebounded quite nicely as a massive underdog in all his matches at the Presidents Cup. Gains on the field in fairways, which is helpful at a course that doesn’t require players to be long drive champions. Already a two-time winner on TOUR, he’s fallen deeper down the board than many who have proved only that the can’t close when the pressures on.
Troy Merritt — Has gained on approach in his past six starts at TPC Summerlin, and at least +2.4 SG: APP in four of his past five overall entering play. His putter is currently running extremely cold, so his killed his odds, however Merritt has gained an average of a stroke per event on the greens in his career versus the -2.2 SG: PUTT he’s lost over his past five starts. Buy the dip.
If it’s DraftKings you DEMAND, Tambo and Kenny have you covered during the swing season…
I did do a cheatsheet of my picks up if you care about that
GALAXY BRAIN: Just Don’t Be Stupid
DFS is such a hard game, so why make it harder? We are coming off a week where three elite QBs fell well short of expectations (Allen, Jackson and Hurts combined for twice as many interceptions as TD passes) and the Jared Goff (you’re welcome for that in this space last week) Geno Smith showdown resulted in seven figure pays days. Great. You know what that was? It was last week. Not this week.
I suspect that paying down for QB will be more popular this week than most because of how much that strategy paid off this past week. Awesome. Let the field do that. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are priced well above the rest of the field with Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert well ahead of Tier 3 … they might be the top four per dollar QBs this week. If I’m ranking them, price factored in, I’m tempted to go Hurts – Herbert – Allen – Murray. Why Hurts?
Over/under is flirting with 50 points
He is 7 designed runs from matching his 2021 total
Arizona is top-10 in pace and has skill guys to make this fun
Arizona blitzes like crazy …
Blitz and force Hurts to move (yes please!)
They rank 20th in pressure rate when NOT blitzing
Hurts is the 4th most accurate pressure when not blitzed this season
You’re telling me I get all of that and I don’t have to sell my soul to get a low ownership number? Let’s keep going. Pair Hurts with two primary receivers, bring it back with Zach Ertz and maybe even pay up for the Birds defense … thought being that this playground Kyler attack eventually gives an elite defense like this a chance to break the slate … and you’re on your way. Maybe a skinny Raheem Mostert/Elijah Moore stack? Sure. Want to go chalk with Rhamondre Stevenson? Go for it. It often takes extreme creativity and finesse to profit in these GPP’s … but after a week of QB failures, Week 5’s main slate has rare “don’t be dumb” upside.
Week 5 DraftKings Main Slate
Obviously, all the numbers will get fine tuned through the week injuries becomed settled and situations are made far more clear, but I always like to see what the inital run of numbers say after we have a clearer idea of what the injury report is going to be.
At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across each sim. And to no surprise, the Sims can’t quit uncle Leo, and the projections, as all projection models do, LOVVVVEEEEEE Rondale Moore.
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
With the injuries and Allen Robinson’s corpse being propped up Weekend at Bernie’s style, the Rams passing attack is uber concentrated with Kupp and Higbee now. Stack up those two with Stafford is gross, but maybe a solid play. We’ll see if I end up there on Friday’s show with Tambo.
Week 5 Spread Picks Cheatsheet