Week 5 PICKS, Injuries, DraftKings Notes
+ Updated Rankings, PGA + UFC
SUNDAY UPDATE — Rankings/Injury CHANGES
WATCH: Sunday Morning Ranks & Injuries Update
UPDATE: Will Fuller and DeVante Parker are OUT. Albert Wilson and Preston Williams will fill in. Don’t bother with him. It’s Waddle and Gesicki you want to play. Waddle is up to WR29, Gesicki TE8.
UPDATE: DALVIN COOK INACTIVE. Mattison up to RB6
Dalvin Cook may be active, he’s a true “game time decision,” but Mike Zimmer has said he’s no sure thing to get a full workload per Adam Scheffer. I’ve dropped him wayyyyyyy down in the rankings (RB37) and elevated Alexander Mattison up. Mattison would be ranked Top 10 at RB if we knew Cook was inactive, something we may know after 1130am ET, but since it’s not that time as I write this, I’ve slotted him in at RB17 in case Cook plays a little. Sportsbooks, including DraftKings, are still hanging props on Cook at the moment, so the move is to bet the UNDER 90.5 total yards NOW, and if he doesn’t play the bet will be voided and you’ll be refunded your money. No harm, no foul. We could all be getting duped here. And, if that’s the case, so be it. On Prize Picks, especially for the Mayo contest (Just make a 5 NFL over/under picks for the Sunday players on a $7.11 entry to qualify for the $$$ bonuses), you’ll want to wait on cook until the active/inactive news has been released because if Cook doesn’t play, it’s voided, but you can replace it on your entry so the max you can win is four of the five picks.
If you’re new to Prize Picks and you deposit this weekend with code “MMNNFL”, you’ll get a match deposit up to $100. And if you play a SNF only entry, they’ll give you $25 if Josh Allen complete one pass or more. You want FREE MONEY. That’s about as free money as it gets.
Curtis Samuel needs to go through warmups to see if he’s going to play. He’s probably going to go, but it’s 75/25 right now. You aren’t using him in your season-long rosters anyway (unless your team is horrid), but on DK he’s $3,000 and pretty appealing. I’m staying away and going with Jon Ross as the salary saving WR if I need one, or simply using Ricky Seals-Jones at $2,500 (or Dan Arnold at $2,900) at TE to save cash.
Joe Mixon now looks he’s going to play (not official until it is). They’ve admitted he’s not 100% and likely won’t see a full work load. I’d imagine Samaje Perine will split carries in this situation, and if the game script sees the Bengals in the hole early, we could get a lot of Chris Evans. This essentially renders all three of them inert. I’d liked Perine at $4,000 on DraftKings since most were staying away, turns out, per usual, they were right and I was wrong. For rankings, Mixon has entered the rankings, one spot above Dalvin Cook at RB36, and I’ve still kept Perine above him at RB35. Cap’t MURICA, Chris Evans, is in the McNichols/Hot Rodney Smith tier at RB46
George Kittle has been placed on IR. That means he’s out at least three games. Ross “Smelly” Dwelly will fill in. No idea how he’ll fare with Trey Lance at QB if we’re being honest. Dwelly is TE 17 this week.
Josh Gordon appears like he’ll be active for SNF. Like Gordon’s been told his entire career, just say NO.
The Patriots are down four OL against Houston. Their line is still probably better than the Texans, but it may stunt their offesnive ceiling.
The rest of the injury cheatsheet + Player notes are below.
If you have a start/sit question, join the LIVE CHAT at 1130am ET on Mayo Media Network (https://bit.ly/YTMMN). Or just use the updated rankings.
POSTED: Saturday Afternoon
SUNDAY NIGHT FREE MONEY!!!!!!!
Want a free $25? Well, $125 if you think about. If you’re new to Prize Picks and you deposit this weekend with code “MMNNFL”, you’ll get a match deposit up to $100. And if you play a SNF only entry, they’ll give you $25 if Josh Allen complete one pass or more. Josh Allen doesn’t even need to be a part of the Prize Picks entry. Just needs to be anything during SNF.
You can take advantage of the MMN Props Contest BONUS too (Here’s the updated leaderboard. Pretty sure the only person doing worse than me is Cust.) Just make a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest and you can take advantage of the bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment. Perfect for anyone trying to build a bank roll.
BONUS $$$: Get a deposit Match up to $100 and an extra $25 for playing a Sunday Night Football entry at Prize Picks with code MMNNFL
Look, I’m wring on these, but UNDER 70.5 for a banged up Dalvin Cook may be the play if the Vikes get up early and project him. Just make sure he’s active before committing on Prize Picks.
His total yards number is 90.5 on DK sportsbook too. If he doesn’t play it’s void, but that’s a juice UNDER too.
Week 5 Injury Report
I’ll have a full breakdown on the Saturday Pod and Video. But do me a solid and sub to the newsletter while you’re here.
WR
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT SUNDAY
Russell Gage (ankle) OUT SUNDAY
Julio Jones (hamstring) OUT
AJ Brown (hamstring) Likely IN
Courtland Sutton (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
DeVante Parker (hammy) GAME TIME DECISION
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) OUT
Darius Slayton (hamstring) OUT
Dyami Brown (knee) OUT
Curtis Samuel (hamstring) Likely IN
Tee Higgins (shoulder) Likely IN
Amari Cooper (hammy) Likely IN
Nick Westbrooke-Ikhine Likely IN
Elijah Moore (concession) Likely IN
Chase Claypool (hammy) Likely IN
James Washington (groin) OUT
Danny Amendola (tight) Likely IN
RB
Antonio Gibson (shin) Likely IN
Joe Mixon (ankle) Likely OUT
Christian McCaffrey (hammy) Likely OUT; (Listed as Doubtful)
Dalvin Cook (ankle) GAME TIME DECISION
Chase Edmonds (shoulder) GAME TIME DECISION
Gio Bernard (knee) Likely IN
Ezekiel Elliott (knee) Limited Practice; Likely IN
Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) IN
Justin Jackson (groin) Likely OUT (Listed as Doubtful)
Rex Burkhead (hip) OUT
TE
George Kittle (calf) Likely OUT (Listed as Doubtful)
TJ Hockenson (knee) QUESTION (Game Time Decision)
Rob Gronkowski (ribs) OUT
Albert Okwuegbunam (hammy) OUT (May be placed on IR)
Tyler Kroft (OUT)
QB
Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) Likely IN
Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) OUT
Russell Wilson (finger) OUT 6-8 Week
As a bonus, the Week 5 RANKINGS are all UPDATED to reflect the report. They be updated again early Sunday for the London game, then again after Inactives are released if any information changes.
Week 5 Bets
If you missed the Best Bets show, shame on you. We got Cam to talk about Candy…
WATCH: Week 5 NFL Best Bets
If you don’t wanna watch (weird), here’s the quick cheatsheet of the “best” bets. I put “best” in quotations because that’s just a moniker, they aren’t actually good. Except for Cam’s. He’s 10-2 on the show ATS through 4 weeks.
Even when you talk to a McDonald’s Monopoly addict, there is still time for NFL. Here’s what me, Geoff (who is currently watching Justin Herbert highlights at a club in Vegas. Not joking), and Thee CUST came up with for Week 5.
WATCH: Week 5 SPREAD PICKS
Galaxy Brain Time: James Robinson vs TEN
The Titans are road favorites, against a winless team that has lost three of four games by double digits. If you were crafting an ideal spot for Derrick Henry ($9,000), would this not be it? Oh yea, and he’s facing a team that he’s hung 30-plus DK points on three times (including one of the seven 50-point games by a running back since 2018).
You could get off of the Henry chalk by targeting the Titans pass game. That’s the natural pivot. Bet on Henry still performing, but them finishing drives through the air. That’s checkers. We play chess here. 3-D chess.
James Robinson ($6,000). And I don’t think it’s crazy. Consider this
- 20 carries for 127 yards and 2 TD when running left (4 runs of 10+ yards)
- 14 carries for 46 yards and 0 TD running right (0 runs of 10+ yards)
That’s cute, but can we read much into a month of data?
- 5.3 yards per carry running left last season (10+ yards on 17.6% of carries)
- 3.5 yards per carry running right last season (10+ yards on 9.2% of carries)
You’re still reading, so you’re interested (or bored, or both). Are you even more interested when I tell you that 41% of Robinson’s carries have been to the left side this season … up from 31% last season? Maybe these splits will have you join me on the dark side for this weekend. The Titans against opposing running backs by rush direction …
- 2020: 25th in RB yards per carry when running left (18th on runs to the right)
- 2021: 25th in RB yards per carry when running left (2nd on runs to the right)
And then there’s the game theory part of it. There’s a world in which Robinson produces in the same stratosphere as Henry. A chance. How big of an edge is the 3k in savings? For an extra $2,700, you can upgrade your double stack from Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool to Tom Brady, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I have a Twitter poll up: … (LINK)
“Does Derrick Henry outscore James Robinson by more points this weekend than the double stack of Brady/Godwin/Evans outscores Ben/Diontae/Claypool by?”
I’d vote no, so while no one is going to tell you Henry is a bad play … there are better plays. Still playing around with it, but if you fall back from Mike Evans to Antonio Brown in your Buccaneer double, you can make what I expect to be a reasonably unique and viable GPP lineup. I mentioned the Bengals pass game stack that could prove to be very unique given the chalk on Samaje Perine on the Thursday pod with Pete Overzet, so I’ve included a visual of that one below as well:
Of course, when Pete and I finished discuss all the positions we had to put together the SHITTER GUY lineup for Week 5 on DraftKings
Week 5 MORE DRAFTKINGS PICKS
Did you know Tambo and JT Hayes from Run Pure Sports do a DK Picks & Props show every week on MMN? Well, now you do. I appreciate everyone tuning in to The PME DK picks show, which I assume is for the laughs, but these two bring the goods in terms of legit picks. Check it out.
For my two cents, I think you can completely punt off TE this week be it with, in order of preference:
Ricky Seals-Jones $2,500
Dan Arnold $2,900
Ross (smelly) Dwelley $2,700 (if Kittle out)
More Week 5 PLAYER NOTES
Alvin Kamara is averaging career lows in … routes, targets per route, catches per route and catch rate. The touch count is fine, but he’s sacrificing value per touch and the Washington Football happen to be allowing the 3rd fewest yards to RBs after first contact this season. Be careful.
This season, the Cardinals have allowed the 15 most carries of 10-plus yards to RBs (2nd most) and during the Kyle Shanahan era, SF RBs rank 2nd in number of 10-plus yard runs.
The Cardinals are the 3rd blitz happiest defense through four weeks and Deebo Samuel has a 42.3% target share when his QB is blitzed this season.
The Packers are a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per deep completion and deep touchdown rate … they’ve face Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ben Roethlisberger. This week, they get Joe Burrow on extended rest who has 202 yards and 3 TDs on the nine times he’s targeted Ja’Marr Chase deep down field.
Buy Lamar Jackson. From 2016-20, over 54% of games in which a QB scored 25+ fantasy points came in home games … he doesn’t go on the road again until Week 10 at MIA
From 2019-20, Jackson averaged 22.7 PPG in the first half of seasons
From 2019-20, Jackson averaged 27.5 PPG in the second half of seasons (21.1% bump). Gets better with time
Use the RUN THE SIMS Custom Player Prop Tool
David Montgomery ranks 7th this season in percentage of team RB touches (73.5%). So the role is there, but wait, there’s more. The Raiders are allowing the 5th most yards per carry before contact this season. So you don’t even really have to buy Williams’ talent, you just have to buy the idea that this game stays close and that doesn’t trip over his own feet. 23 players ran for 59+ yards … why can’t he do that?
TRADE ALERT COMING: Nick Chubb
People are a bit down on Chubb and I get it … right now, he’s the second most appealing back in his own offense. BUT. Cleveland is currently a lookahead favorite next week (hosting Arizona), the first of what figures to be six straight weeks in which they are favored. For his career, Chubb has scored 26+ DK points in 25% of games when favored and 9% of games when an underdog. Cleveland is a ‘dog this week in LA against the Chargers … so I’m not banking on a big week from him. If he fails to score or get involved in the pass game this week, there’s a decent chance his manager is a bit frustrated. Pounce!
UFC
The real money is being made on the UFC these days. Since getting back TV two weeks ago, Cody has ran both UFC card to the tune of two triple digit parlay winners. Can it happen again? Unlikely. But most would have said the same last week too.
Here’s the UFC picks show. Cody generally releases his full card parlays sometime in the afternoon Saturday on Twitter.
If you want UFC DraftKings Picks, Brett Appley has you covered on that front.
Lineup Lock is at 2pm ET Saturday.
WEEKEND GOLF
I actually have some runners this week. That’s always nice for Sunday night after my NFL bets bust out. Anyway if you should already be a member at Fantasy National for all these stats (and lineup builder), but if not, here’s 20% OFF to join.
The Top Ball strikers after Two Rounds. (Weekend LOCK is at 9:50am ET btw)
And here are the worst putters who made the cut.
Henely looks great if he can figure out the driver.
Good luck this week
— PM