Week 3 Spread Picks, Betting Trends, Injury Report, Cheatsheets
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FREE PICKS!!!!
Here’s the Underdog promo schedule for the week. May as well use that deposit bonus on a the Ceedee FREE PICK starting Wednesday and any NEW DEPOSITOR not only get the bonus up to $1,000, they get an extra FREE PICK for TNF.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000
WEEK 3 INJURIES
QB
Bryce Young — BENCHED; Dalton to start
Justin Herbert (Ankle) — Expected IN
Russell Wilson (Calf) — Fields will start Week 3
Jordan Love (Knee) — Expected OUT Week 3
Tua Tagovailoa (Head) — Placed on IR
RB
Joe Mixon (Ankle) — Quetsionable
Rachaad White (Groin) — Quetsionable
Kenneth Walker III (Oblique) — Quetsionable
Raheem Mostert (Chest) — Quetsionable
Tyjae Spears (ankle) — Quetsionable
Tank Bigsby (Chest) — Expected IN Week 3
Pierre Strong (Hamstring) — Expected OUT
Jeff Wilson (Oblique) — Quetsionable
Isiah Pacheco (Leg) — Fractured Fibula; Expected OUT 6-8 Weeks
MarShawn Lloyd (Ankle) — ON IR
Christian McCaffrey (Calf) — ON IR
WR
Justin Jefferson (Quad) — Expected IN
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Knee) — Expected IN
Tee Higgins (Hamstring) — Could Return Week 3 (MNF)
Devaughn Vele (ribs) — Quetsionable
Jordan Addison (Ankle) — Quetsionable
Keenan Allen (Heel) — Quetsionable
Josh Downs (ankle) — Expected IN
Deebo Samuel (Calf) — Expected OUT Multiple weeks
AJ Brown (Hamstring) — Expected OUT Multiple weeks
Puka Nacua (Knee) — On IR; Out at Least 4 Games
Cooper Kupp (Ankle) — Placed on IR
TE
Evan Engram (Hamstring) — Expected OUT (MNF)
Jake Ferguson (Knee) — Expected IN
Taysom Hill (Chest) — Quetsionable
Davis Allen (Back) — Quetsionable
David Njoku (Ankle) — Expected OUT
BTW: I set up a Twitter list for the Top Fantasy Football Doctors if you’re only interested in a feed about that
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WEEK 3 NFL POWER RANKINGS
In case you haven’t heard, Jake and I are doing NFL POWER RANKINGSS every Monday this season. We also use that time to talk about each teams fantasy players a two-for-one. Check it out.
WATCH: Week 3 NFL POWER RANKINGS | Fantasy Football Week 3 Waiver Wire Pickup Rankings
Also, I’m doing the quick hits every morning on the YouTube Page and on a different audio podcast feed. If you need to get caught up on injuries and news in less than 10 minutes, it’s for you. Sub and rate to help out too!
Apple: https://bit.ly/NFLPBApple
Spotify: https://bit.ly/NFLPBSpot
SHIP IT NATION FREE WEEK
Tambo’s off this week at a far away wedding. He feels bad. So he came up with this promo for Ship It Nation. A FREE WEEK trial for anyone that uses code MAYO. Just use code MAYO on any monthly Football or All-Access pass. That’s it.
You can catch the SIN squad FREE and LIVE on MMN Thursday afternoon for their TNF slate breakdown too!
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Some of their members are off to a HOT START in 2024 NFL Season.
WEEK 3 SPREAD PICKS
There’s a little bit of everything in this one. Cust and Geoff’s anxiety over the blind tasting menu, being scared to travel, screaming matches, and of course the preview of the games. It’s the style of show that the casual PME viewer hates, but the die hards love. Also, we restarted survivor since Cust already won.
WATCH: 2024 Week 3 Spread Picks, NFL Game Predictions, Survivor Picks | Cust Corner Drive Thru Quickness
Reminder to SUB to this FREE Newsletter to get the Tuesday advanced copy of the Spreads Show
WEEK 3 BETTING TRENDS
New England Patriots at New York Jets (TNF)
Betting: Aaron Rodgers is making his second consecutive start on short rest – he failed to cover five of his final seven short rest games as a favorite with the Packers.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Betting: Daniel Jones has failed to cover in his last 8 starts, twice as long as the next-longest active streak for any starting QB. The last QB to fail to cover in 9 straight starts was Matt Ryan in 2015 (9).
Betting: Deshaun Watson is 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) in his past 18 starts as a favorite.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
PACKERS AT TITANS
Betting: Since 2014, overs are 14-5 when the Packers play on the road with a total under 45 points.
Betting: Even with an understanding of the limitations of Will Levis, bookmakers are struggling to set Tennessee totals low enough – unders are 4-1-1 in their past six games.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Betting: For the second straight week, Caleb Williams and the Bears are playing inside. Rookie QBs are 11-5-1 ATS in their past 17 such games (Chicago lost by six
Betting: Betting against the Colts? Take the over. In eight of their past 11 games in which they’ve failed to cover, the total has gone over the closing number.
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Betting: Only the Panthers (18.2%) have a lower cover rate when favored since 2021 than the Texans (27.3%).
Betting: Sam Darnold is 12-7-1 ATS for his career as a home underdog, a vast improvement from his 2-7 ATS mark when favored at home.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Betting: First half overs? Here are the leading scoring units this season:
1st: Saints: 91 points
2nd: Cardinals: 69 points
T-3rd Bills: 65 points
T-3rd First Half Saints: 65 points
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Betting: Four straight Chargers games have gone under the total, the longest active streak in the league. Since the start of 2023 the Chargers have the highest under pct in the league (14 out of 19, or 73.7%).
Betting: The Steelers have covered in 5 straight games, the longest active streak in the league. Another cover would be Pittsburgh’s 2nd-longest cover streak since Mike Tomlin took over in 2006 (had a 7-game streak from 2014-15).
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Betting: The Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 games when they are catching more than three points.
Betting: Baker Mayfield is seeking his 3rd straight cover when favored, which would be the longest streak of his career. In his career, Mayfield is 13-27-1 (.325) ATS when favored. Only Cam Newton (.286) has a worse cover pct when favored since 2018 (among 29 starting QBs with 20+ starts as a favorite).
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders
Betting: The Panthers have failed to cover four straight games, falling to reach the spread by 78.5 points across those losses (cumulative score: 108-13).
Betting: The Raiders have covered five of their past six games when favored (in large part to the defense: in those five covers, they’ve allowed an average of 14.2 PPG).
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
Betting: The Dolphins have covered six of their past seven road September games (covering by an average of 4.0 points).
Betting: Geno Smith is 0-2-2 ATS in his past four starts as a home favorite – all four of those games have gone over the projected total (average over margin: 8.3 PPG).
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Betting: Lamar Jackson is 3-1 ATS when playing indoors with under tickets cashing in all four of those games.
Betting: There are three active QBs with a MVP trophy on their mantle (Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson) – here are Dak Prescott’s last five results in a game against one of them, including the playoffs.
31-28 loss as a 3.5 point favorite
19-9 loss as a 2.5-point underdog
34-24 loss as a 3.5-point underdog
35-31 loss as a 2.5-point favorite
34-31 loss as a 5.5-point favorite
That’s an 0-5 ATS record with a failure to cover rate of 8.5 points per game.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Betting: Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 11-6-1 ATS when playing on the road the game following a road contest (last instance: 42-19 win in Philadelphia in Week 13 last season as a three-point favorite).
Betting: Sean McVay is 4-10-1 ATS against the 49ers with six of those ATS losses carrying a cover rate of double figures for San Francisco.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Betting: Much was made this offseason about Detroit rarely playing outdoors – Jared Goff is 6-2 ATS in his past eight outdoor starts.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in eight of Kyler Murray’s last 12 starts as a home underdog.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Betting: The Chiefs covered an indoor Super Bowl last season – their four consecutive indoor cover when Mahomes starts (cumulative score in those four games: 114-72).
Betting: Overs are 25-14 (64.1%) when Kirk Cousins starts as a home underdog. He went 0-4-1 ATS in his final five such games with the Vikings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (MNF, 7:30)
Betting: The Jags covered (by 0.5 points) in their season opener in Miami, improving them to 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games against AFC East competition (they’ve covered their past two games against the Bills by a total of 28.5 points).
Betting: The Bills are 2-6 ATS over their past eight home games, the same mark that overs have in those contests.
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (MNF, 8:15)
Betting: Since 2007, rookie QBs are 21-8-1 ATS on Monday nights (72.4%).
Betting: Unders are 4-0-1 when Joe Burrow plays in primetime as a favorite
— PM