Ever wanted to use an optimizer or customize your weekly projections with ease? Well, RunTheSims.com has no paywall from now til Sunday and you can use all the tools on the site. Plus, there’s a $333 DK Wildcat Entry, 10 Milly maker ticket, and a free sub up for grabs just from signing up. No Credit Card or any of that shit. Unlock everything will a free account.
Do it here
Thursday Night BONUS MONEY!!!!!
Prize Picks is just handing out money again!!!! If you’ve never deposited before, use code “MMNNFL” to, not only, get a deposit match up to $100, but it gets you in a draw for $250 too. Look, I can tell you, not many people are going to be in this draw so your chances are pretty good.
If you live in one of those places where sports betting is not yet legal, but WANT IN on this action Prize Picks is a good solution. It’s available in way more states. And, for some reason, they’re now offering 3.5x your money on two picks instead of just 3x better than any props parlay you’ll find for odds.
Week 4 Injuries (Ranks updated to reflect)
Ranks Breakdown
RB https://bit.ly/21W4RBranks
WR https://bit.ly/21W4WRranks
QB https://bit.ly/21W4QBranks
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W4TEDSTranks
Thursday Night Special: Tyler Boyd vs. Jaguars
I got you. Because I am you. Lemme guess. You want action on Thursday Night Football, but can’t bring yourself to give over a touchdown with the Bengals OR to bet the Jags in any capacity. Sound about right? Thank God for props. My numbers and the numbers from Run The Sims line up this week … usually a good thing. Since the beginning of last season, the are a bottom 10 defense in terms of touchdown rate, yards per reception and completion percentage when opponents target the slot. So it’s worth noting that Boyd has more slot catches this season (13) than all other Bengals have slot targets (11). But wait, like your favorite infomercial, THERE’S MORE! Opponents have completed 58-of-69 passes for 457 yards and 4 TDs against the Jags when throwing less than 10 yards down field. That, friends, is a weakness Boyd (6.2 aDOT) is more likely to exploit than Tee Higgins (9.2 aDOT) or Ja’Marr Chase (16.8 aDOT) .
GET the most customizable NFL tools at Run The Sims
Boyd over receiving yards is very much a play on DK Sportsbook and the number is even lower on Prize Picks. In fact, over on Prize Picks, playing Boyd over on both catches and fantasy points along with your favorite Sunday prop (spoiler alert: we like Jonathan Taylor) can net you 5x your money. What’s not to like?
If you live in one of those places where sports betting is not yet legal, but WANT IN on this action, I suggest Prize Picks. It’s available in way more states. And, for some reason, they’re now offering 3.5x your money on two picks instead of just 3x. Considering they’ll match your deposit up to $100 with code MMN, seems like a good time to take advantage.
This is what I went with for Thursday night. You have to play someone from each team, hence the Lawrence under.
Or just play Boyd as a part of your MMN 7/11 contest picks. Here’s the updated leaderboard in case you wondering. Shout out to Alan W. for being the last perfect picker. He finally had a 4/5 week and leads all 633 entrants by 2 with 14/15 through three weeks. I’m tied for 179th with 7/15. Because I suck.
Week 4 Spicy Sunday Takes
Tom Brady is not a top-10 quarterback
The Patriots rank 4th in pressure rate this season and 5th since the beginning of last season
Brady’s ranks over that stretch when feeling the heat (24 qualified QBs):
22nd in Passer Rating (ahead of only Drew Lock and Carson Wentz)
23rd in fantasy points per pass attempt (ahead of only Lock)
23rd in completion percentage (ahead of only Wentz)
Robby Anderson (PPR WR73) outscores Tyler Lockett (PPR WR3)
Since the beginning of last season, the Cowboys’ defense ranks 31st in deep completion percentage and 32nd in deep touchdown rate.
This season, Anderson has a 31.6% deep target market share (6.1% market share on all other throws) and has an aDOT that is greater than DJ Moore’s and Terrace Marshall’s combined.
Since 2019, Lockett is the most efficient perimeter receiver among the 48 that have at least 225 targets (2.3 PPR points per target)
Over that same stretch, no defense allows fewer yards per perimeter pass attempt than the Niners
Over that same stretch, Lockett’s aDOT against San Fran (7.9) hints are far less upside than he’s got against the rest of the league (11.6)
More extensive Sunday player notes along with Injuries and the like in Saturday’s post.
If you need the RANKS for Week 4, me and Ciely broke them down HERE. Or, peep the HOT LINKS
Ranks Breakdown
RB https://bit.ly/21W4RBranks
WR https://bit.ly/21W4WRranks
QB https://bit.ly/21W4QBranks
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W4TEDSTranks
SANDERSON FARMS
After a fun, sort of, Ryder Cup, we’re back to the grind with a cut event at the Sanderson Farms. I broke down the field with Axis from FTN HERE. JUST THE PICKS????? np. Here’s the DK cheatsheet. If you don’t care for what I have to say, and you shouldn’t, Kenny and Tambo have their opinions on the event.
I was gonna take it easy on the betting front, and but the more I talked to Axis and started playing around with the numbers from Fantasy National, the more shots I wanted to take. So, I did. Even added in some EUROs after listening to Tom and Sky break down the field.
Apparently, it’s Mito week. And I don’t wanna miss that. And I was able to abstain from Ghim and Si WOOOOO, but I fell for Pendrith again.
If you were wondering, here’s what I used for my stats on Fantasy National this week.
Modelling is tough this time of year with so much of the field without SG stats since they were on the Korn Ferry. So, I suggest either taking a reallllllllllly long sample or a reallllllllllllly short one. I prefer the short view for this week
Here’s what it looks like from the past 12 rounds
Shorten it to past 8 rounds and you get…
Swing season is actually. really fun on DK btw. It’s not easy money, but it’s much easier money than usual. Especially when you use Fantasy National.
SECRET SHOW
Yes, the spread picks show will be available publicly Wednesday morning. But what kinda jabroni wants to wait for then when… YOU CAN HAVE IT NOWWWWWW??????
Do me a favor while you’re here and sub to the newsletter too. THANKS, PALLLLLLS
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2021 Fantasy Basketball RANKS
Obviously, I didn’t do these. I enlisted the assistances of someone who actually knows these things, because I figured some of you have season long Fantasy B Ball drafts to do.
— PM