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Week 4 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes

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Week 4 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes

+ Golf Bets & Spread Link

Mayo Media
Sep 28, 2022
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Week 4 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes

mayomedia.substack.com

LASTEST CONTENT

Week 4 DraftKings Picks

Week 4 Best Bets

Week 4 Spread Picks + Cust Corner

UFC Vegas 61 Picks, Bets, Props

DIRECT LINK: Week 4 PME DK League

MONTY OUT, HERMBERT PROJECTION

Twitter avatar for @ThePME
Pat Mayo @ThePME
Get ahead of the books by adjusting the numbers post injury release & running 10000 simulations in under 10s so you can pounce at the new opener 10% off all memberships runthesims.com/mayo Here's how Herbert's new projection on my estimated workload. Adjust however YOU want
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7:10 PM ∙ Sep 30, 2022

NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan

Week 4 Rankings

RB https://bit.ly/22W4RBRanks

WR https://bit.ly/22W4WRRanks

QB https://bit.ly/22W4QBRanks

TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W4TEDST

Week 4 Injury Cheatsheet

RB

David Montgomery (Ankle/Knee) — OUT 

D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — OUT; Likely Multiple Weeks

Boston Scott (Ribs) — OUT

Christian McCaffrey (thigh) — GTD

Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) — IN

Alvin Kamara (Ribs) Likely IN

Jonathan Taylor (Toe) — IN

Dameon Pierce (hip) — IN

Travis Homer (Ribs) — Placed on IR

WR

Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUT 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ankle) — OUT

Kennan Allen (hamstring) — OUT

Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — OUT

Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT

Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) —OUT

AJ Green (Knee) — OUT

Jake Kumerow (ankle) — OUT

Sterling Shepard (Knee) — OUT FOR SEASON

Breshad Perriman (Hamstring) — Likely OUT

Chris Godwin (hamstring) — GTD

Julio Jones (knee) — GTD

Marquise Brown (Foot) — Likely IN

Ronald Moore (hamstring) — Likely IN

Michael Gallup (knee) — Likely IN

Mecole Hardman (heel) — Likely IN

Velus Jones (Hamstring) — Likely IN

Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — Likely IN

Christian Watson (hamstring) — Likely IN

Jakobi Meyers (knee) — Likely IN

DJ Chark (Ankle) — IN

Kyle Phillips (Shoulder) — Questionable 

QB

Jameis Winston (Back) — OUT

Mac Jones (Ankle) — OUT

Zach Wilson (Knee) — Likely IN

Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — Left Game; OUT Indefinitely

TE

Foster Moreau (Knee) — OUT

Ryan Griffin (Achilles) — Likely OUT

Taysom Hill (Ribs) — Likely IN

Dawson Know (Back) — Likely IN

Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — Questionable for Week 4

Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Questionable for Week 4

2022 Sanderson Farms & Alfred Dunhill Links 

Took home some LIVEEEEE Guido moneies on the weekend so I'm trying not to give it all back in one go. Hopefully we’ll catch a swing season HEATER

WATCH: Sanderson Farms Picks

WATCH: Sanderson Farms DraftKings Picks

WATCH: Alfred Dunhill Links Picks & Bets

Note: After reviewing the FN Simulator, I added Taylor Moore at Sandersons.

Taylor Montgomery 30/1— Almost any skill set can win at CC of Jackson, but a bomber having a hot putting week is likely the easiest path, since they can dominate the Par 5s. Wouldn’t expect him to repeat +11.2 SG: PUTT from him like we saw at the Fortinet, but a massive rebound with the driver (-1.6 SG:OTT) is about the best bet you can make this week. Arguably the best Korn Ferry grad, looking back his past five starts, he finished 3rd in his season debut in Napa, and churned out four straight Top 10s to end the KFT season before that. Buy now before his odds are sub 20/1 in a few weeks. 

Emiliano Grillo 45/1 — This course is weirdly set up for the Argentinian when he’s running good. It’s a course that emphasizes driving, but not all distance. That’s the Grillo wheel house. Over the past 24 rounds he’s actually No. 1 in this field in SG: OTT despite only being 45th in Driving Distance in that stretch. Average to above average length with deadly accuracy is a great combo anywhere, but the stats show it is greatly weight at CC of Jackson. The craziest part of his recent run though; Grillo’s normal high-end irons have become middling, while one of the worst flat sticks of the past half decade has suddenly come alive. He’s gained on the greens in each of his past five starts, picking up an average of +3 SG: PUTT on the field. You worry that he’ll turn back into a pumpkin any week now, but you gotta ride incase he actually figures out his wedges while the putter is hot. 

Trey Mullinax 55/1 — A near lock to gain with his driver, it’s the rest of his game, starting with his win at the Barbasol, that is becoming the impressive part. Including his breakthrough win, he’s gained against the field on approach in each start, including stacked field in two events in the FedEx Cup playoffs and at The Open. It really comes down to which putter he decides to bring: The freezing cold or scorching hot. In four career starts at the Sanderson Farms we’ve seen both, he’s gained over +4 SG: PUTT in two of his past three starts in Jackson, and dropped almost five in the other. Seems worth the risk.

Thinking hard about adding Taylor Moore at 60/1 as well. Haven’t pulled the trigger yet, but I feel like I’ll get there. (Mayo Note: I DID!)

Sanderson Farms Championship DraftKings Picks

Elite Values

  • Taylor Montgomery $9,600

  • Scott Stallings $9,500

High-End Value

  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout $9,300

  • Emiliano Grillo $9,200

Second-Level Values

  • Trey Mullinax $8,300

  • Gary Woodland $8,100

Mid-Level Values

  • Byeong Hun An $7,400

  • Michael Gligic $7,100

Scrub Values

  • MJ Daffue $6,800

  • Vincent Norrman $6,700

GALAXY BRAIN: Less is More?

Much has been made about the Dolphins not deserving their Week 3 win over the Bills. I get it. The snap disparity was off the charts, historic even. The issue? Everyone is well aware of Miami’s defense being left in the Florida sun for basically the entire game and, as a result, it seems that DraftKings Sportsbook is looking for some Miami action this week.

Both the spread and moneyline continue to favor the host Bengals in this spot. While the Dolphins were busy expending every ounce of energy to send a message to the AFC, the defending AFC champs got their first win of the season in dominating fashion over the Jets. Cincy held the lead for over 83% of their offensive snaps on Sunday, won the time of possession battle and experienced zero high stress moments down the stretch. Yea, a littttttle different than what Miami went through in Week 3 and if we are being honest, my inclination was to load up on the Bengals in this spot. But …

The Week 3 Dolphins/Bills game was the 15th time since 2010 that a team had at least 40 more defensive snaps than offensive. So I went back to see what the betting story was on the next game for those hypothetically tired teams. Obviously the Dolphins haven’t played their follow up game yet and in two of the other instances, the tired team went on bye the following week. So that leaves us with a 12 game sample size …

-          ATS: 8-4 (1-2 when favored, 7-2 otherwise)

-          Overs: 9-2-1

Clearly, we aren’t talking a huge sample, but that’s a troubling trend for those of use that want to pound the Bengals in this spot. The tired team has an average cover margin in those games of 7.5 points, thus making the Dolphins ML (inching towards +180) a live play. DraftKings is running their “Up 7” bonus this week, so maybe you hedge. Bet the Bengals ML using that promo and then go the Same Game Parlay avenue with the Dolphins? Per HOLLYWOOD Mike Clay, Xavien Howard is expected to shadow Ja’Marr Chase and given Miami’s off the charts blitz rate, we could see a nervous Joe Burrow if he can’t go right to his favorite receiver when blitzed. Dolphins ML, over and Burrow to throw a pick pays over 6-to-1, so if you use the bonus to back the Bengals for 2 units and play this for 1 unit, you put yourself in a good spot to at least break even and leave the upside for a huge start to Week 4!

Week 4 DraftKings Main Slate

Obviously, all the numbers will get fine tuned through the week injuries becomed settled and situations are made far more clear, but I always like to see what the inital run of numbers say after we have a clearer idea of what the injury report is going to be.

At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across each sim. Spoiler: early in the week, the sims LOVVVVVVVEEEEEEE the expensive RBs

NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan

DIRECT LINK: Week 4 PME DK League

Week 4 Spreads

Yes, the audio podcast drops Wednesday VERY early morning, but as loyal subs to the newsletter know, the SECRET LINK to the video is available in the Tuesday newsletter each week.

WATCH: Week 4 Spread Picks + Cust Corner

Also, while you’re here, do me a favor and deposit $20 on Jock Market with code MMN. It’ll help out tremdously…

Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”

— PM

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