Week 4 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes
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Week 4 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/22W4RBRanks
WR https://bit.ly/22W4WRRanks
QB https://bit.ly/22W4QBRanks
TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W4TEDST
Week 4 Injury Cheatsheet
RB
David Montgomery (Ankle/Knee) — OUT
D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — OUT; Likely Multiple Weeks
Boston Scott (Ribs) — OUT
Christian McCaffrey (thigh) — GTD
Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) — IN
Alvin Kamara (Ribs) Likely IN
Jonathan Taylor (Toe) — IN
Dameon Pierce (hip) — IN
Travis Homer (Ribs) — Placed on IR
WR
Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUT
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ankle) — OUT
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — OUT
Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — OUT
Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT
Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) —OUT
AJ Green (Knee) — OUT
Jake Kumerow (ankle) — OUT
Sterling Shepard (Knee) — OUT FOR SEASON
Breshad Perriman (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
Chris Godwin (hamstring) — GTD
Julio Jones (knee) — GTD
Marquise Brown (Foot) — Likely IN
Ronald Moore (hamstring) — Likely IN
Michael Gallup (knee) — Likely IN
Mecole Hardman (heel) — Likely IN
Velus Jones (Hamstring) — Likely IN
Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — Likely IN
Christian Watson (hamstring) — Likely IN
Jakobi Meyers (knee) — Likely IN
DJ Chark (Ankle) — IN
Kyle Phillips (Shoulder) — Questionable
QB
Jameis Winston (Back) — OUT
Mac Jones (Ankle) — OUT
Zach Wilson (Knee) — Likely IN
Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — Left Game; OUT Indefinitely
TE
Foster Moreau (Knee) — OUT
Ryan Griffin (Achilles) — Likely OUT
Taysom Hill (Ribs) — Likely IN
Dawson Know (Back) — Likely IN
Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — Questionable for Week 4
Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Questionable for Week 4
2022 Sanderson Farms & Alfred Dunhill Links
Took home some LIVEEEEE Guido moneies on the weekend so I'm trying not to give it all back in one go. Hopefully we’ll catch a swing season HEATER
WATCH: Sanderson Farms Picks
WATCH: Sanderson Farms DraftKings Picks
WATCH: Alfred Dunhill Links Picks & Bets
Note: After reviewing the FN Simulator, I added Taylor Moore at Sandersons.
Taylor Montgomery 30/1— Almost any skill set can win at CC of Jackson, but a bomber having a hot putting week is likely the easiest path, since they can dominate the Par 5s. Wouldn’t expect him to repeat +11.2 SG: PUTT from him like we saw at the Fortinet, but a massive rebound with the driver (-1.6 SG:OTT) is about the best bet you can make this week. Arguably the best Korn Ferry grad, looking back his past five starts, he finished 3rd in his season debut in Napa, and churned out four straight Top 10s to end the KFT season before that. Buy now before his odds are sub 20/1 in a few weeks.
Emiliano Grillo 45/1 — This course is weirdly set up for the Argentinian when he’s running good. It’s a course that emphasizes driving, but not all distance. That’s the Grillo wheel house. Over the past 24 rounds he’s actually No. 1 in this field in SG: OTT despite only being 45th in Driving Distance in that stretch. Average to above average length with deadly accuracy is a great combo anywhere, but the stats show it is greatly weight at CC of Jackson. The craziest part of his recent run though; Grillo’s normal high-end irons have become middling, while one of the worst flat sticks of the past half decade has suddenly come alive. He’s gained on the greens in each of his past five starts, picking up an average of +3 SG: PUTT on the field. You worry that he’ll turn back into a pumpkin any week now, but you gotta ride incase he actually figures out his wedges while the putter is hot.
Trey Mullinax 55/1 — A near lock to gain with his driver, it’s the rest of his game, starting with his win at the Barbasol, that is becoming the impressive part. Including his breakthrough win, he’s gained against the field on approach in each start, including stacked field in two events in the FedEx Cup playoffs and at The Open. It really comes down to which putter he decides to bring: The freezing cold or scorching hot. In four career starts at the Sanderson Farms we’ve seen both, he’s gained over +4 SG: PUTT in two of his past three starts in Jackson, and dropped almost five in the other. Seems worth the risk.
Thinking hard about adding Taylor Moore at 60/1 as well. Haven’t pulled the trigger yet, but I feel like I’ll get there. (Mayo Note: I DID!)
Sanderson Farms Championship DraftKings Picks
Elite Values
Taylor Montgomery $9,600
Scott Stallings $9,500
High-End Value
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $9,300
Emiliano Grillo $9,200
Second-Level Values
Trey Mullinax $8,300
Gary Woodland $8,100
Mid-Level Values
Byeong Hun An $7,400
Michael Gligic $7,100
Scrub Values
MJ Daffue $6,800
Vincent Norrman $6,700
GALAXY BRAIN: Less is More?
Much has been made about the Dolphins not deserving their Week 3 win over the Bills. I get it. The snap disparity was off the charts, historic even. The issue? Everyone is well aware of Miami’s defense being left in the Florida sun for basically the entire game and, as a result, it seems that DraftKings Sportsbook is looking for some Miami action this week.
Both the spread and moneyline continue to favor the host Bengals in this spot. While the Dolphins were busy expending every ounce of energy to send a message to the AFC, the defending AFC champs got their first win of the season in dominating fashion over the Jets. Cincy held the lead for over 83% of their offensive snaps on Sunday, won the time of possession battle and experienced zero high stress moments down the stretch. Yea, a littttttle different than what Miami went through in Week 3 and if we are being honest, my inclination was to load up on the Bengals in this spot. But …
The Week 3 Dolphins/Bills game was the 15th time since 2010 that a team had at least 40 more defensive snaps than offensive. So I went back to see what the betting story was on the next game for those hypothetically tired teams. Obviously the Dolphins haven’t played their follow up game yet and in two of the other instances, the tired team went on bye the following week. So that leaves us with a 12 game sample size …
- ATS: 8-4 (1-2 when favored, 7-2 otherwise)
- Overs: 9-2-1
Clearly, we aren’t talking a huge sample, but that’s a troubling trend for those of use that want to pound the Bengals in this spot. The tired team has an average cover margin in those games of 7.5 points, thus making the Dolphins ML (inching towards +180) a live play. DraftKings is running their “Up 7” bonus this week, so maybe you hedge. Bet the Bengals ML using that promo and then go the Same Game Parlay avenue with the Dolphins? Per HOLLYWOOD Mike Clay, Xavien Howard is expected to shadow Ja’Marr Chase and given Miami’s off the charts blitz rate, we could see a nervous Joe Burrow if he can’t go right to his favorite receiver when blitzed. Dolphins ML, over and Burrow to throw a pick pays over 6-to-1, so if you use the bonus to back the Bengals for 2 units and play this for 1 unit, you put yourself in a good spot to at least break even and leave the upside for a huge start to Week 4!
Week 4 DraftKings Main Slate
Obviously, all the numbers will get fine tuned through the week injuries becomed settled and situations are made far more clear, but I always like to see what the inital run of numbers say after we have a clearer idea of what the injury report is going to be.
At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across each sim. Spoiler: early in the week, the sims LOVVVVVVVEEEEEEE the expensive RBs
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DIRECT LINK: Week 4 PME DK League
Week 4 Spreads
Yes, the audio podcast drops Wednesday VERY early morning, but as loyal subs to the newsletter know, the SECRET LINK to the video is available in the Tuesday newsletter each week.
WATCH: Week 4 Spread Picks + Cust Corner
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— PM