If you’ve ever wanted to test of a DFS optimizer or the ability to customize your own projections, NOW is the weekend to sign up for Run The Sims and try it all out. Free access to the site is available until Sunday and it comes along with some nice giveaways. (Anyone who is already a RTS member is in the draw automatically.)
If you’re in the prop game and want to use the player prop tool to run each game 10,000 times for that player with their odds baked in, GOOD NEWS, that’s available too. Derek Carr’s passing completions really stands out this week from MNF, even with a -135 vig. You can search other places to find a o24.5 completions btw at better vig. (+105 at Bet365 right now)
Here are some other overs the simulations LOVED this week. Obviously, the MNF games aren’t eligible for the MMN Prize Picks Props contest, but there are some decent ones available for the Sunday Slate.
(these are all overs)
After crushing the TNF Prize Picks, let’s see if we can go STREAKING into the weekend. First, if you haven’t deposited at Prize Picks yet, change that. Use this link or just go to PrizePicks.com and use code MMN to get up to $100 in a deposit match. (AKA Deposit $100, receive $200). I always like playing my two pick POWER PLAY for the week, and this is what I landed on…
Although Run The Sims would caution me against Robby, I think this is achievable on one play against the Dallas D which is weak at the back end. Especially if Diggs negates DJ Moore in this spot.
Also, for everyone with a Prize Picks account, don’t forget to enter your lineup in the MMN props contest this week (REMEMBER, NO MNF PROPS. Just Thursday and Sunday every week.) If you’re new and want to leverage the Run The Sims tools for props, once you deposit at Prize Picks, just make a 5 Pick entry for $7.11. That amount qualifies you for the contest. You may not be able to catch up for the big money in the prizes, but there’s a $50 bonus on top of your winning entry if you go 5/5, so you may as well take advantage of a potential 17/1 payout.
If you’re put off my big stakes and want to keep your investment down, this is a fantastic way to build a bankroll with very little downside. And since Sports Betting isn’t available in a lot of states, Prize Picks is a great alternative as it’s available in a lot more.
Week 4 Injuries
I usually have my injury show out by now, (NOW IT IS!!!!) but it won’t actually get released until Saturday afternoon/evening this week as I have been on the injury report most of the week. Regardless, here’s the cheatsheet for Week 4 Injuries
NOTE: Claypool, Mitchell & GRONK now officially ruled OUT as of Sunday morning.
UPDATED Week 4 Rankings LISTS
Week 4 Best Bets
Me, Rob and Cam got together again coming off AN IMPRESSIVE 1-8 week for the Week 3 bets. Still, Cam is now 3-0 in his Gold plays this season. Let’s see if we can get back on track.
Also, there is a game-by-game picks show you may have heard of. That came out Wednesday. Still plenty of time to watch (or listen) however.
Here’s the cheatsheet. As you can see, we’re very good at this…
GALAXY BRAIN TIME - Terry McLaurin (at ATL)
In order to properly overthink things, you’ve got to consider everything and get creative. How about a small sample market share, Vegas line movement and a very specific alignment? Here. We. Go.
Through the first three weeks of the season, 25 times has a WR reached the 25 DK point threshold. In 18 of those instances, the producing receiver’s team won the game. That’s 72%, a pretty good sized number. Bookmakers made Washington a 2.5-point ‘dog when they first released this line and it swung 4 points toward The Footballs in a hurry … that’ll work.
In Taylor Heinicke’s two starts this season, McLaurin has seen nearly a 31% target market share (9th highest). That’s a role worth buying against this Falcons “defense”, but anyone could land on “volume against a bad defense”. You subscribe here for a deeper dive and that’s what you’re going to get. Since the beginning of last season, there are two quarterbacks completing 70% of their passes with a Passer Rating of 115:
2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers
QB throwing outside the numbers vs ATL
So yes, if you’re looking through the Week 4 lens, I just put Rodgers and Heinicke on the same list. And no, that isn’t an Atlanta stat skewed for last season … opponents are 36-of-50 for 342 yards and 7 TDs this season on those passes against the Falcons. They played Brady in Week 2, but that was sandwiched by games against Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones. OK, weakness identified. Now for the exploitation. Here are McLaurin’s splits in terms of outside the number stats:
2020: 9.1% of his routes and just under 23% of his targets
2021: 46.7% of his routes and 40% of his targets
ALL IN on McScorin this week. That said, there are different levels of going all in. Here is one path to truly push all your chips in on this Washington offense and another to use McLaurin outside of a stack. “Cash games” aren’t a thing. We go for broke here at MMN:
- If you wanted to save even more salary and upgrade in spots, Curtis Samuel at $3,000 is the move.
Some player notes for the rest of Week 4. Rest assured, the same galaxy braining took place with these guys.
Jalen Hurts ranks 13th in completion percentage when not pressured (74.7%, ahead of Tom Brady), a major step up from his 28th ranking when feeling the heat (36.4%, behind Famous Jameis).
The Chiefs rank 27th in pressure rate this season, a major downtick from their #2 ranking a season ago.
Najee Harris is the unquestioned guy in Pittsburgh. I mean, 60-of-63 running back touches this season. The Packers have played two games against a team with their lead back healthy and in those weeks, they’ve allowed the 7thmost yards to RBs before contact. Well, this season, Harris averages more yards per carry after contact than before. Imagine a world in which he has holes to run through … could be the case on Sunday.
Mooney Tunes gets the Lions this week and I still don’t think he’ll be rostered anywhere because of how Justin Fields looked last week. Maybe that’s right. Or. Maybe Fields won’t be historically bad in a plus-matchup at home. Mooney has seen the majority of his targets come when lined up on the perimeter this season (65.3% last season, it’s his jam) and the Lions allowed the highest TD rate on such passes a season ago. They struggled through the first two weeks on those passes this season and while the numbers look improved last week, if Marquise Brown remembers how to catch, the Detroit secondary would have flagged again. I’m more comfortable betting against the Lions than I am counting Fields out. Salary relief if you go with an expensive stack or want to pay up for volume RBs.
Top 10 Players on the Week 4 DK Main Slate in Air Yards
In GPP’s, you want players going deep and in a spot to score, right? I highlighted two guys that pop in both categories (Davis Mattek’s “puke play” of the week among them). From a lineup construction stand point, it’s worth noting that Diggs and Cooks along with Adams and Claypool (if active) play in the same game. If a game is going to shootout, long TDs are a good bet to be a part of it. I’m just sayin’.
Here’s this week’s shitter lineup ICYMI