Week 4 Betting Trends, Injury Report, Ryder Cup + Projections
Week 4 Injury Report
WATCH: Weekend Injury Update, Rankings, Props
RB
Austin Ekeler (Ankle) — Likely OUT
Saquon Barkley (Ankle) — Game Time Decision (MNF); Leaning OUT
Elijah Mitchell (knee) — Questionable
Miles Sanders (groin) — Expected IN
Kareem Hunt (Groin/Ribs) — Expected IN
Cam Akers — Expected IN
Gus Edwards (Concussion) — Expected IN
Justice Hill (toe) — Expected IN
Salvon Ahmed (groin) — Questionable
Jamaal Williams (Hamstring) — OUT; On IR
Jonathan Taylor — OUT; On IR (Eligible to return in Week 5)
Jeff Wilson — OUT; On IR (Eligible to return in Week 5)
Week 4 Rankings Lists
RB https://bit.ly/23W4RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W4WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W4QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W4TEDSTRankings
WR
Zay Jones (knee) — OUT
Treylon Burks (knee) — OUT
Quez Watkins (Hamstring) —OUT
Odell Beckham Jr. (Ankle) — OUT
Rashod Bateman (Hamstring) — OUT
Jauan Jennings (shoulder) — Expected OUT
Deebo Samuel (ribs) — Questionable
Jaylen Waddle (Concussion) — Expected IN
Jonathan Mingo (concussion) — Expected IN
Allen Robinson (ankle) — Expected IN
Jameson Williams (Teasing Through Zero) — Eligible to Return in Week 5
River Cracraft (Shoulder) — OUT; On IR (Robbie Chosen elevated to roster for Week 4)
Diontae Johnson (Hamstring) — OUT; on Injured Reserve
Cooper Kupp (Knee) — OUT; On IR (Eligible to return in Week 5)
TE
David Njoku (Burns) — Expected IN
Tyler Higbee (Achilles) — Questionable
Foster Moreau (ankle) — Questionable
Irv Smith (Hamstring) — OUT
Will Dissly (shoulder) — OUT; On IR
Luke Musgrave (Concussion) — Exited Game
QB
Jimmy Garoppolo (Concussion) — Needs to pass protocol to play; Hoyer Expected to Start
Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) — Expected IN
Derek Carr (Shoulder) — Questionable
Bryce Young (ankle) — Will Start
Anthony Richardson (Concussion) — Will Start
RYDER CUP BETS
Europe is now the betting favorite in the markets. What a time to be alive. While I’m not betting USA at this moment, it’s only because I grabbed the EUROs at +170 a few months back. At these prices, I would definitely bet USA if I didn’t have money down already.
WATCH: Ryder Cup Picks, Bets + Preview
Top USA Patrick Cantlay — Sure, you need to be good, but basically everyone is good in the Ryder Cup, so the difference between everyone is match up optimization. Who is going to play the most? If you play the most, you have the most opportunity to score points. Don’t need a PHD in math to unlock that secret. Somehow that gets over looked, though. Cantlay with Xander (And Spieth with Thomas) have the best chance to both play together and see all five sessions, so I’ll go with the player best suited for this style of course in Cantlay.
Top USA Jordan Spieth — I expect Xander, Spieth and Cantlaty to play the most, so I wanted to grab a piece of Spieth too.
Top Euro Tyrrell Hatton — Team Europe has three locks to see every match — Rahm, Rory, VIK — at least, we think. It’s likely Hatton starts as a team with Rahm and if they win their first match together, it may be good enough to days through the team portion and earn’s Hatton all five matches. He’s double the price of the others, and in singles play, he’s the Euro I trust the most to make a clutch putt when he needs it.
Top USA Rookie - Sam Burns — It’s as easy as — he’s likely going to be Scheffler’s partner. Now, if he and Scottie are paired together and they lose their first match, we may not see Burns again until singles and this loses in a big way. But, if he has an opportunity to go out with the world’s number one player, and he’s not the favorite in the market, you gotta go with that.
Top Euro Rookie - Nicolai Hojgaard —Essentially Aberg has crushed the rookie and Euro rookie market, where everyone else is a value now. Yes, Aberg is going to get the first crack, but he’s likely to draw Hovland as a partner, who has never won a Ryder Cup match. Things can change, sure, but if they go down in match one, Aberg is going to be out, and the Dane is going to take his spot at a course where’s he’s win and churned out another Top 5 finish. If he can win with Hovland (or whoever), he’s not coming out again.
Top USA Wild Card - Sam Burns — While I selected him as Top Rookie, I like this market better as it’s deeper odds. Now, you need to fade much better players in this market, but the same logic applies; Burns plays OK and Scheffler plays like the No. 1 player in the world and he just piles up points.
Brooks Koepka 0 Points (+4000) — Brooks could easily be the best player on this team, but his lack of natural partner could have him sitting early while more established teams hit the course, and he may just get a left over team mate and have to come in cold. It’s not inconceivable he only gets three matches in Rome if he loses his first.
Scottie Scheffler 0 Points (+10000) — YOLO!!!!!!!
For more info on the Ryder Cup, course, players, etc, I put it all in this X Thread for ya…
RYDER CUP: Player Records, History Course, Info
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Hoop, Tambo, and Zach Trivett break down their favorite NFL DraftKings Showdown picks and plays for Thursday Night Football LIVE at 2pm ET on Mayo Media Network. The ShipitNation.com crew is going to be LIVE every Monday, Thursday and Sunday during NFL season going over the slate and answering your questions.
Use code “MAYO” at Ship It Nation to get 10%
We don’t officially know the status or role of Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Taylor Decker or Christian Watson, however, we now know Jaire Alexander and David Bakhtiari are OUT for this game. You can customize the projections and rush/receiving shares for all players however you want on Run The Sims.
For this set of optimal results, I have included Aaron Jones and David Montgomery as IN while I’ve kept Watson OUT. Obviously, the projections et al will change once we get clearer news.
Update: Looking like Watson, Monty and Jones are IN. Time to go update your projections at RTS…
10% DISCOUNT ON RUN THE SIMS TOOLS: SIMS, OPTO, PROJECTIONS, RESEARCH TOOLS, CONTEST SIMS
WEEK 4 NFL PICK’EM
Leaguesafe is offering up $1,000 for a free pick’em game every week. Great way to build bankroll with no investment. Two reasons to play?
A) It’s Free
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Download the FREE Leaguesafe App (Apple or Android) and click “Games” on the bottom. Then BOOM, make your picks
GET APP: https://apps.apple.com/app/leaguesafe/id1639028513
We even have custom Qs this week for The PME
Week 4 Betting Trends
*Not to be taken too seriously* (Unless they prove predictive)
GB — No team has been better ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2021 season than the Packers (10-2).
JAX — At 1-7 ATS since the start of the 2020 season, the Jags are the worst team in the NFL to back when favored.
MIA — The Dolphins have played each of their past six road games within seven points (four decided by no more than a FG).
CHI — It's been over a calendar year since the Bears won a home game and they've lost each of their past three by more than 15 points.
BAL — Under tickets have cashed in seven of Baltimore's past 10 games against a top-10 run defense.
CIN — Only the Giants have a better road ATS mark since the start of last season than the Bengals (7-2).
LAR — Unders are 10-5 since 2021 when the Rams are coming off of a loss.
IND — The Colts are just 1-6 ATS since the beginning of last season when favored.
TB — The Bucs lost on Monday night and are a league worst 2-8 ATS following a loss since the beginning of 2021.
PHI — Overs are 13-5 at Philadelphia since the start of 2021, the highest hit rate in the NFL over that stretch.
WAS — The Commanders are 4-9 ATS when facing a top-10 offense since 2021 (30.8% cover rate).
MIN — Overs are 20-4 in Viking games following a Minnesota loss since 2020.
CAR — Overs are 9-2 since the beginning of 2021 when the Panthers take on a top-10 passing offense, a box the Vikings check with Kirk Cousins passing for over 6,000 yards.
PIT — Unders are 8-4 in the past 12 games in which the Steelers have been favored.
LV — Overs are 7-3 since 2021 when the Raiders are getting at least four points.
SF —The 49ers are the best ATS home team since the beginning of 2022 with an 80% cover rate (only two other teams are even above 60%).
DAL —The Cowboys are a league best 8-1 ATS following a loss since the beginning of the 2021 season.
KC — Overs are 12-6 over the past two-plus seasons when the Chiefs play on the road.
NYG —Only the Commanders have seen a higher percentage of home games come in under the total since the beginning of 2021 than the Giants (72.2%)
Cheatsheets & Shows
Pat Mayo, Geoff Fienberg and Tim Anderson go game-by-game and make their 2023 Week 4 Picks, Bets and Props. Plus, a mini Cust Corner on No Booze Pubs and Delivery vs Pickup.
WATCH: Week 4 Spread Picks + Cust Corner
Pat Mayo, Rob Pizzola, and Cam Stewart give their 2023 NFL Week 4 Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.
WATCH: Week 4 Best Bets & Group Teaser
Look at this glorious cover photo…
— PM