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Week 3 Questions
Finally Time To Trust Mike Williams?
In his career, Mike Williams has 5 games with 10 targets - and two of those have been this season. Clearly Williams has the connection with Herbert, and if that’s the case, he should be a reliable target machine as long as he stays healthy.
Your mileage may vary on how likely that is, of course.
Might Be Time To Sell High On Gronk?
Gronk’s got multiple TDs in consecutive games, and he’s been wildly good so far. The thing is, it was against the Cowboys and Falcons, both of whom suck defensively, and his name still holds value. If you can get someone who thinks Old Gronk is back, selling at peak value might make some sense.
Minnesota’s Offence Worth Investing In?
Last season, Minnesota ranked 31st in terms of plays with 3 WRs on the field, a shade over 36% of the time. So far? They’re going three wide a lot, with 77% of snaps in Week 1 with 3 WRs, and week 2 was much more of the same. KJ Osborne is very viable, and the fact their defence seems to be bad helps boost their passing game.
Never Invest in Niners Running Backs
The information out of San Francisco is unreliable at best, straight up wrong at worst, and nobody, including beat writers, have any idea what is being planned at any given time.
Buy Low On Jets Weapons?
Zoomer Zach can’t be this mad moving forward, and that defence is putrid, so they’re gonna get a lot of passing game scripts and soft prevent defences. Just don’t watch any of the games (unless you want to understand why Cust is so sad).
Jameis Sneaky Mobile
Winston rushed for over 20 yards yesterday for the 20th time in his career, which was also the 30th start of his career to go over 15 yards rushing. It’s a bit of upside that could make Jameis a little less volatile week to week.
BEST DK PLAYS
Run The Sims offers the ability to simulate an NFL slate 10,000 times in less than 5 seconds. I did this and here are all the players who appear in an optimal lineup over 15% of the time this week.
You can make a custom adjustments you want if you’re a member at Run The Sims btw.
Pete Overzet did his early look and research on the DraftKings slate if you want to get ahead of the game before the Thursday DK PME. This week with BIG T!!!! From Run Pure Sports. BIG T from the challenge was not available.
RYDER CUP
If you missed the Ryder Cup show you’re in luck. It’s right here. While it appears like Geoff is on speed the entire time, I can assure you, he’s just very excited.
If you want more of a EURO Slate on thing, Tom (THE BRIT) and Sky mixed it up on the EURO PICKS show.
I’ll have my final picks Thursday after the first pairing are released.
WEEK 3 RANKINGS
Rankings Breakdown
RB https://bit.ly/21W3RBs
WR https://bit.ly/21W3WRranks
QB https://bit.ly/21W3QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W3TEDST
WEEK 3 PLAYER NOTES
Twice this season has a player had 125+ receiving yards while averaging north of 16 air yards per target …
Week 1: Brandin Cooks vs JAX
Week 2: Courtland Sutton at JAX
DeAndre Hopkins gets the Jags this week and is averaging 10.6 air yards per target through two games. Not only does that represent a near 18% bump from last season, it hints at WR1 upside. Like top overall WR upside. The last time he had an aDOT that high was 2018, a season which happened to be his second with a game-changing athlete under center (Deshaun Watson). Sound familiar? He finished that season with career-highs in grabs (115) and receiving yards (1,572) while seeing his catch rate from his budding star QB rise from 62% to 70.1%. He ended that season by either hitting the 100-yard bonus or scoring in 11 of his final 13 games. DFS print fest.
Since the beginning of last season on perimeter passes, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool have combined for a 68% target market share, a 67% reception market share, a 70% TD reception market share and a 74% receiving yardage market share in Pittsburgh.
Tyler Boyd went to college in Pittsburgh and heads back to town to face a Steelers defense that has been elite vs the deep ball since the beginning of last season (top-6 in CMP%, passer rating and yards per pass attempt on those long throws). In a matchup like this, aDOT is worth being aware of …
Ja’Marr Chase (18.2 yards), Tee Hee Higgins (9.2) and Boyd (4.9)
Keep an eye on the health of Ben Roethlisberger, but as we sit here today, a secondary stack of Claypool and Boyd is penciled into the GPP lineup. Come back for the Friday Newsletter for the finished product: I can promise you it’ll be unique!
DK Weekly Special … fade points?
Multiple scores is tough to do. Yes, I know Gronk has done it twice, but that doesn’t make it a likely outcome, let alone a plus-money bet. In addition to there being six guys more than capable of scoring (thus making any one of them less likely to score twice), these defenses are elite. Since the beginning of last season …
Both are top-6 in percentage of opponent drives that result in a TD
Both are top-10 at creating pressure
Brady has a bottom-10 TD rate vs pressure during that stretch
Stafford ranks bottom-10 in yards per pressured red zone pass attempt over that stretch
Both are above average in preventing TDs when the opponent reaches the red zone
Betting Trends: Overtime Teams
Teams who played in OT in Week 1 went 3-1 ATS in Week 2, and you honestly might have gotten a push on the Bengals (there were +3s available), so for everyone who wonders whether Geoff is living his own truth on this stat, Week 1 suggests yes. (Also, all four teams were underdogs in Week 2, and went 2-2 straight up).
Monday Night Fireworks
Dak Prescott has 3 career games with at least 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. All three of those games have either been the first or the last division game of the season. The Cowboys get the Eagles with their first and last divisional games this season, so you know at least one of them will be big. The first of those two matchups is on MNF this week.
Early Week Galaxy Brain Time: Miles Sanders
Since Sanders entered the league, he is the standalone leader in carries gaining at least 55 yards with five. Well, over that stretch, the ‘Boys are a bottom-5 defense in terms of preventing big RB runs (20-plus yards) and RB yards per carry before contact. Hmm.
Ease of upside is another factor fantasy managers need to consider. It’s why guys like DeSean Jackson profile as “best ball” types … the upside is there, but those upside plays require much to happen. Not so much the case in this spot … the top 5 players over that stretch (min. 300 total carries) in yards per up-the-gut run:
1. Lamar Jackson – 6.54
2. Christian McCaffrey – 5.42
3. Sanders – 5.37
4. Nick Chubb – 5.26
5. Aaron Jones – 5.25
That’ll play. Runs up the middle are pretty simple to execute. But wait, there’s more. Dallas over that stretch just so happens to be allowing the 4th most yards to RBs per carry on such runs.
SPREAD SHOW
Frankly, the Week 3 show is like the Week 3 slate, kinda boring. But it really picks up when Cust has to backtrack on stealing cheap shampoo, then gets into who Zoomer Zach reminds him of.
— PM