Week 3 Updated Injuries, Player Notes
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Week 3 DraftKings Picks
Week 3 Best Bets
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Week 3 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/22W3RBs
WR https://bit.ly/22W3Wrs
QB https://bit.ly/22W3QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W3TEDST
Week 3 Injury Cheatsheet
WATCH: Week 3 Rankings Debate & Injuries
RB
Brandon Bolden (Hamstring) — IN
Dontrell Hilliard (Hamstring) — IN
Christian McCaffrey (Ankle) — IN
Damien Harris (Knee) — Likely IN
Alvin Kamara (ribs) — Likely IN
Leonard Fournette (hamstring) — Likely IN
James Conner (Ankle) — Game Time Decision
Josh Jacobs (Illness) — Questionable (Could not travel Friday to TEN)
D’Andre Swift (Ankle) — Questionable
JK Dobbins (knee) — Questionable
Damien Williams (ribs) — Questionable
Gio Bernard (Ankle) — Questionable
Tyrion Davis-Price (High Ankle) — OUT Multiple Weeks
WR
Mike Evans — Suspended One Game
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) — OUT
Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — OUT
Chris Godwin (hamstring) — OUT
Kyle Phillips (Shoulder) — Likely OUT
Van Jefferson (Knee) — Likely OUT
Ronald Moore (hamstring) — Likely OUT
Velus Jones (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — Likely OUT
Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — Game Time Decision
Julio Jones (knee) — Game Time Decision; Leaning OUT
Michael Gallup (knee) — Likely IN; Expect limited snaps
Andy Isabella (Back) — Likely IN
Gabe Davis (Ankle) — Likely IN
Jakobi Meyers (knee) — Likely In
Alec Pierce (Concussion) — Likely IN
KJ Hamler (Knee) — Likely IN
Tre’Quon Smith (Hamstring) — Likely IN
Russell Gage (Hamstring) — Questionable
Michael Pittman (Quad) — Questionable
Jerry Jeudy (Ribs) — Questionable
Devin Duvernay (Concussion) — Questionable
QB
Trey Lance (Ankle) — Out for The Season
Justin Herbert (Ribs) — Questionable
TE
Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — OUT
Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Likely OUT
George Kittle (groin) — Likely IN
Donald Parham (hamstring) — Likely IN
Isaiah Likely (Groin) — Likely IN
TJ Hockenson (Hip) — Questionable
Hayden Hurst (Groin) — Questionable
CJ Uzomah (Hamstring) — Questionable
Dawson Knox (foot) — Questionable
CJ Uzomah (hamstring) — Questionable
TNF Picks
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The Run The Sims DIY simulator and lineup builder continues to dominate on DraftKings Showdown Slates. Half of it is known what the rest of the field is doing so you can be somewhat unique. Here are the two most common optimals after 10,000 sims of the game…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
I’m playing around with my lineups, but I think I’m gonig to project the game as an over and Steelers win. I would have guessed that would mean 4-2 PIT players but…., NOPE. In a 26-24 PIT win, the sims LOVEEEEEE a 5-1 Browns stack and with everything going through Najee.
I think I’m going to roll with something like this, but probably go 4-2 with Najee and PIT DST as my two from the Steelers side as my primary build.
2022 Presidents Cup Bets
Look, there’s is absolutely no value in anything USA related, and if you think the International team gets crushed, as the -700 betting line would indicate, who is good and who is bad on the Internationals doesn’t make a difference, as they’re all expected to be bad and not score points.
WATCH: Presidents Cup Picks & Bets w/ Fienberg
The top players, per the odds, like Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners and Adam Scott are really at no advantage over the back end of the team, since most their over/unders on points scored is around 1.5 over the four days. That leave the door open for some long shots from the world side cash if they can sneak in a win or two.
Since each of the sessions only features two players per side, there’s a good chance Cameron Davis, Taylor Pendrith and Mito Pereira can see themselves in four or five sessions each. Compare that with their odds as Top International Points Scorer and you’ll see there’s real value.
I’m also going to play them in the Top Wild Card selection, as well. If they can start out hot, besides Jordan Spieth if he’s always playing with Justin Thomas, there’s a good chance most of the American Wild Card picks will be riding the pine at least twice. This way, you can have a chance to attack that market with value on the International side through volume. Davis and Pendrith have the best value in the overall Top Wild Card market, while Mito at +850 is quality for Top International Rookie — a softer market to beat.
Additionally, at a course this long, while the shorter hitters can compete, the bombers have a significant advantage.
MY BETS
Cameron Davis — Top International (+1100), Top Wild Card (+1400), Top International Rookie (+650), Top Rookie (+2200)
Taylor Pendrith — Top International (+1200), Top Wild Card (+1600), Top Rookie, Top Rookie (+2000)
Mito Pereira — Top International (+1400), Top International Rookie (+900), Top Rookie (+3500)
On DraftKings, wait until the Thursday pairings and match ups are set and public before committing to a lineup build. The USA is a -700 favorite, if you believe that, you’ll want to jam as many USA players on to your roster as you can. That’s what worked last year at the blow out Ryder Cup.
For more Sky (and Tom Jacobs), and more ways to bet golf, they have the bets and breakdown for the L’OPEN DE FRANCE this week in Europe OUT NOW!!!
Here’s what I went with in FRANCE. Blind tailing of people I like week in Europe!
FRANCE
Campillo 50
Korhonen 50
Southgate 60
Y. Paul 70 (With 5 Places)
Krogh Joannessen 75 (With 5 Places)
Kjeldsen 125 (With 5 Places)
Wacky Valimaki 140 (With 8 Places)
WATCH: Open de France Picks & Bets
GALAXY BRAIN: Human Behavior
“Absence makes the heart grow fonder”, “the pain of parting is nothing to the joy of meeting again”, “love isn’t finding someone to live with. It’s finding someone you can’t live without”.
Pick a cliché. Any cliché. It’s human nature to want what you can’t have and DFS is no different. You know what we couldn’t have last week? Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Justin Hurts or Kirk Cousins. To some degree, all of those quarterbacks balled out in a primetime spot. Besides Cousins. Because of course. Over his last seven primetime games, Captain Kirk is averaging just 12.2 DK PPG (non-primetime games over that stretch: 21 PPG).
My point? We were forced to build lineups last week (on the main slate) with a compromised QB pool and were forced to watch the stars do what stars do on the national stage. Show out. So who do you think is getting clicked on this week?
- Josh Allen vs suddenly explosive Miami
- Lamar Jackson coming off of a historic double bonus
- Patrick Mahomes on extended rest vs the underwhelming Colts
- Jalen Hurts against a Commanders team that saw the Lions hang 36 on them
Kirk Cousins is priced as QB7 on this main slate. His name is wedged in-between the highlight reel of Kyler Murray and defending AFC Champion Joe Burrow. He’s priced ahead of the easy stackability of Matthew Stafford against a porous Cardinals defense and Tua potentially in catchup mode following his career day. I don’t know where the chalk lands come lineup lock, but I’m having a hard time seeing Cousins drawing a high number, even against the Lions. Stack him with Justin Jefferson (306 yards against the Lions last season) against a blitz heavy defense (Jefferson has more catches than any other Viking has targets vs the blitz since the beginning of last season) and you get some strong upside without much ownership. Throw in Big Irv (one drop away from a huge Week 2) and you’ve got a nice double.
The natural bring back is Amon-Ra St. Brown and let’s say you eat that chalk. Throw in a cheap defense and we are looking at just over $5,200 left per player. With Mike Evans suspended, Michael Pittman hobbling and a various other WR question marks (Godwin, Keenan Allen, Gabe Davis, etc), you can find a cheap WR to help you lock in 40-ish touches from your RBs. For better or worse, this lineup came together WAY to easily … and I like it.
You bring a spoon to a gun fight whenever you have the chance. Loaded QB slate and I’m building around a probably too expensive Kirk Cousins
Week 3 DraftKings Main Slate
Obviously, all the numbers will get fine tuned through the week injuries becomed settled and situations are made far more clear, but I always like to see what the inital run of numbers say. At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across each sim.
CPATT doesn’t feel right to me, but I’ve learn to turn myself over to the numbers and trust what the sims say. Worked out for me last week. If I only could have played just ONE good RB it would have been a a down payment on a house, well almost. Alas…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
Since you’re here already, here’s the direct link to the Week 3 NFL PME OPEN
DIRECT LINK: Week 3 PME DK League (Already 47% full)
Week 3 Spreads
Yes, the audio podcast drops Wednesday VERY early morning, but as loyal subs to the newsletter know, the SECRET LINK to the video is available in the Tuesday newsletter each week.
WATCH: Week 3 Spread Picks + Cust Corner
— PM