NFL PROPS CONTEST
Yes, the contest started last week, but it’s not like you can’t catch up 5 picks over 17 more weeks? Especially since only 40/550 went 5/5 on their selections.
Make an Entry of any 5 NFL over/unders available (NO MNF tho) and make it for $7.11. That $7.11 notifies Prize Picks that it’s an entry for the MMN contest.
That’s all you gotta do. If you have a PP account already just play the $7.11 entry and you’re in.
This is perfect for people who don’t have access to sports betting in their state and wanna get in on some action as Prize Picks is available in over half of states and all of Canada.
Plus, even if you can’t catch up in the over contest, Prize Picks is giving a bonus $50 to anyone who plays a $7.11 entry and gets all 5 picks right as a weekly prize. So, you can turn $7.11 into $121.10 on a weekly basis even if you don’t give a shot about the $3K top prize in the contest. Prize Picks is dying for you to sign up, so they’re just giving away FREE MONEY where ever they can. Take advantage.
WEEK 2 QB NOTES
Patrick Mahomes’ top two career fantasy games have come against the AFC North … on the road … in his first road game against the division of the season (Steelers in 2018 and the Ravens last season). All of those boxes are checked on Sunday night when Kansas City travels to Baltimore to face a Ravens team on a shorter week.
Aaron Rodgers’ last 11 fantasy viable games (so excluding Week 17’s) as a 7+ point favorite against the NFC: 2,874 passing yards, 28 TD and 0 INT (402 pass attempts)
That’s 22.5 fantasy points per game. R-E-L-A-X
Josh Allen enters 2021 with 5 career games of 33 fantasy points
Against Miami: 3 such games (50% of his career games against MIA have been 33+ points)
Against the rest of the NFL: 2 such games (5.1% of his games against non-Dolphins teams
From 2011-20, the top two rookie QB fantasy games, came against the AFC East (Josh Allen vs MIA in 2018 and Russell Wilson at BUF in 2012). Mac Jones and Zach Wilson get a chance to extend that trend in the same game this weekend
In Week 2 last season, Dak Prescott scored 39.8 fantasy points while hosting the Falcons, the highest point total by a home QB last season.
Tom Brady threw for 370+ yards twice last regular season … Week 15 at ATL and Week 17 vs ATL
Also related, the Bucs host the Falcons on Sunday afternoon
Since 2015, Matt Ryan averages 19.9 fantasy points per September road game and 18.1 fantasy points per road game played in any other month.
The Bucs allowed over 20 QB FP six times last season … two games against the Falcons and the other four at home.
GALAXY BRAIN TIME: Who says no?
1. Matt Ryan has seen the 3 best fantasy games of his career come in the first month of the season
2. Ryan has seen 10 of his top 13 career games come in a game with a Vegas total of 50+
3. The 6 highest QB fantasy producers against the Bucs last season were either at home or against these Falcons.
4. Kyle Pitts burned everybody last week, but he ranked 4th at the position in percentage of team drop backs in which he ran a route (76.9%).
5. He and Calvin Ridley saw 16 of ATL’s 22 pass catcher (WR/TE) targets and all 7 of the Ryan’s looks on balls thrown 10+ yards down field.
6. Over the past decade, team aDOT jumps by 5.4% when trailing compared to when leading
7. Tom Brady went 21-of-23 for 299 yards and 3 TD when throwing to the slot vs ATL last season
8. Chris Godwin had more slot targets and more slot yards in Week 1 (8 targets, 62 yards) than Mike Evans and Antonio Brown combined (5 targets, 51 yards)
9. Since the beginning of last season, the Falcons allow a TD on a league-high 9.2% of slot targets (12th best at limiting TDs to all other spots on the field).
Conclusion: Matt Ryan – Calvin Ridley – Kyle Pitts stack with a Chris Godwin bring back. What could that look like in a GPP lineup?
Double stack with a bring back (ATL at TB). Secondary stack as a correlation play (DEN at JAX). A triple RB build, paying up for D/ST and doubling down on a pair of bust RBs for a unique build. Boxes. Checked
In case you ever wondered how I lose so easily. This is it.
Yes, there’s golf happening! The Fortinet Championship is happening, this is the old Safeway, Stewart Cink is the defending champion. Other than Cink last year, none of the winners at this course ended the season in the top 100 in Strokes Gained: Putting, but they all finished Top 76 in SG: Tee To Green. It’s a birdie fest, with the winning score being between -14 and -21 every year. Iron play is important, but someone’s putter is going to get ridiculously hot and that’s probably who wins.
Jon Rahm is playing for reasons, and while it’s unfair to say it’s him and a Korn Ferry field, it’s not that unfair. Hideki, Will Z, Kevin Na, Webb Simpson are good players, but unless one of them comes out and barnstorms this, it’s probably going to be a fairly random winner, whoever hits fairways, gets dialled with the irons, and makes some putt. Weather looks fine, too.
I’m going 100% Rahm on DraftKings, as I outlined here with Andy Lack on the DraftKings Show, but that left my betting card just full of longs hots in case Rahm bombs. It’s the swing season, let’s have some fun.
If you DEMAND more golf in your life, Kenny and Tambo still have their weekly breakdowns, while Tom and Sky persist in covering every EURO TOUR event. This week it’s the Dutch Open!
MAYO GOLF HOT LINKS
Pete Overzet went over some of the preliminary takes for DraftKings this week on the brand new Monday research show, over on Mayo Media Network and Fantasy Football Picks And Bets, but it looks like the big questions are going to be around San Francisco’s backfield, with the Sermon injury, and then the Chargers - Ekeler played, and only got 59% of the snaps, but he was a late decision to go, so deciding whether that usage will increase with a presumably full week of practice could be crucial.
There are 5 main slate games with a total of 50 or above on DK Sportsbook right now - SF @ PHI, MIN @ AZ, ATL @ TB, TEN @ SEA, and the highest total game, DAL @ LAC.
Here’s what the Run The Sims Optimizer is saying early on in the week.
NFL HOT LINKS
NFL PLAYER NOTES
Sell High On Stafford?
Matt Stafford make the most of his Rams debut, throwing for 321 yards and 3 TDs in primetime, but that’s par for the course. Since 2019, he’s averaging 24.3 fantasy points in Week 1’s and 17.4 points in all other games. Given everyone just saw him light up the Bears, it might be worth considering what could be gotten for him.
Buy Low On Rodgers?
This is the third straight season Rodgers has thrown up a stinker, with a sub-9 point performance in a game not marred by injury. His average performance the next week? 27 points. Oh, and his fantasy playoff defences? Cleveland, Minny, and (in week 18, so only kinda the fantasy playoffs) Detroit. If your Rodgers owner is worrying, might be a smart buy on the reigning MVP.
Don’t Get Too Excited About Indy’s RBs
Jonathon Taylor caught six balls this week! We’re finally getting the RB a whole lot of people have been hoping for! Hold on… Taylor had 6 catches in Week 1 last year too, and only caught 30 over his next 14 games. Oh, and he was only on the field for 53.5% of snaps, one of the most even splits in the league.
Antonio Gibson SZN Is Fully Here
With Ryan Fitzpatrick out for the foreseeable future, Gibson - who recorded 67% of his team’s snaps, got 20 carries, and led the team in targets - should be more relied on than expected, with the switch from Fitzmagic to Heinicke. The Fitz has never been big on checking down.
Oh, and here’s the exclusive access to the Week 2 Spread Picks show. It’s filled with Cust GIG FITS. Also, smash BUF -3 if you can still get that number anywhere. I’d even grab the -3.5 before it goes up.
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