Week 2 Injuries, Rankings, Player Notes

+ DK Ownership, Props, NFTs

Sep 18, 2021

NFL PROPS CONTEST

LAST CHANCE!!!! Yes, the contest started last week, but it’s not like you can’t catch up 5 picks over 17 more weeks? Especially since only 40/550 went 5/5 on their selections.

Deposit at PrizePicks.com and use code “MMN” or this link, both will get you a deposit match up to $100. (So, depositing $100 will get you $200).

Make an Entry of any 5 NFL over/unders available (NO MNF tho) and make it for $7.11. That $7.11 notifies Prize Picks that it’s an entry for the MMN contest.

That’s all you gotta do. If you have a PP account already just play the $7.11 entry and you’re in. This is perfect for people who don’t have access to sports betting in their state and wanna get in on some action as Prize Picks is available in over half of states and all of Canada.

Plus, even if you can’t catch up in the over contest, Prize Picks is giving a bonus $50 to anyone who plays a $7.11 entry and gets all 5 picks right as a weekly prize. So, you can turn $7.11 into $121.10 on a weekly basis even if you don’t give a shot about the $3K top prize in the contest. Prize Picks is dying for you to sign up, so they’re just giving away FREE MONEY where ever they can. Take advantage.

Here’s the full leaderboard btw

WEEK 2 INJURIES

I recorded an injury + Ranks Update show. It’s fine, but essentially regurgitates this newsletter. I’d recommend you watch the Friday Best Bets show with Pizzola and Cam. Many people are saying it’s the best PME of the week now.

WEEK 2 PLAYER NOTES

Kirk Cousins

This will be the Vikings 4th straight regular season road game. In the first 3, Cousins … 1,047 pass yards (70% complete), 8 TDs and 0 INT. Since 2018, the Cardinals rank 21st in pressure rate when blitzing. So why would they blitz? IF the Vikes can control Chandler Jones even a little bit, this leaderboard for fantasy points when not blitzed since 2018 is worth being aware of:

1.       Patrick Mahomes – 0.70
2.       Lamar Jackson – 0.70
3.       Cousins – 0.65

D.J. Chark

Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller were the only players with more air yards than Chark in Week 1. Danny Dimes completed 7 of 8 deep passes against Denver last weekend. Yes, that Daniel Jones. The one who was not a top 20 QB in air yards per pass last season, making me think it was something NYG identified as something to exploit in this specific matchup. Trevor Lawrence matched Jones with a league-high 7 deep completions in his NFL debut last weekend.

Brandin Cooks

Cooks paid off last week, but I’m told he doesn’t get to face the Jags every week. Since the beginning of last season. The Jags rank 27th in pressure rate when blitzing and this week’s opponent in the Browns rank 7th. Cleveland has created pressure on 38.4% of drop backs over their past 4 games (2020 prior: 24.1%). They are finding ways to create heat and Tyrod Taylor has just 1 TD on his last 100 pressured pass attempts.

GALAXY BRAIN TIME

In Week 1, in this section, we highlighted two quarterbacks that profiled as favorable options due to their efficiency changes when not pressured. Those QBs? Kyler Murray (309 total yards and 5 TDs) and Kirk Cousins (351 yards and 2 TDs, 3rd most completions). That’ll do! And it only cost us brain power/time. It cost you exactly nothing. In fact, hopefully it made you money!

Tuesday night, we told you a lengthy Falcons/Bucs story and built out a DFS lineup to put that overthinking into action.

Today’s project? GABRIEL DAVIS

In Week 1, five WRs had 150+ air yards … Emmanuel Sanders and Stefon Diggs were two of them.
Hollywood Mike Clay is worried about shadow coverage for both of them this week.
Since Week 5 of last season, Josh Allen ranks 6th in air yards per throw and has seen over 16% of his attempts travel 15+ yards in 12 of those 13 games (total: 19.8% of attempts have traveled 15+ yards in the air)
He’s throwing 36.5 passes per game over that stretch, which means 7-8 deep throws is projectable
Since the beginning of last season, opponents average the 5th most air yards per pass attempt against the Dolphins
Since the beginning of last season, opponents are averaging 29.4 yards per completion on balls thrown 15+ yards (2nd most)
· Gabe Davis has multiple targets 15+ yards down field in 6 of his past 7 games
· Per NextGenStats, since the beginning of last season, two qualified players get an average of 6+ yards of cushion AND STILL average over 14 air yards per target. In short, these two guys are being given space and even with the defense getting that head start, their offense STILL believes their guy can beat the defense downfield. Those two names: Calvin Ridley and Davis.
Josh Allen has a 114.3 career passer rating against the Dolphins. The only QB with a Passer Rating that high in 2020? MVP Aaron Rodgers.
CONCLUSION: Josh Allen is poised for a big game, his top two air yards guys from Week 1 are set to see shadow coverage, Gabe Davis is not priced as a top-60 WR on the DK main slate.

If you’re combining Galaxy Brain thoughts from the newsletters this week (and, I mean, what could possibly go wrong), this is a DK GPP option (assuming Davis’ health of course, but it appears as if he’s playing):

Now THIS is what I call a GPP lineup — Guaranteed Piss Poor lineup. But Ima play it anyway.

Here's the Week 2 DraftKings Chalk report for the Milly Maker Slate

RB 15%+

Najee Harris
Christian McCaffrey
Alvin Kamara
Chris Carson

WR 15%+

Keenan Allen
Amari Cooper
Cooper Kupp

TE 10%+

Darren Waller
Tyler Higbee

QB 10%+

Justin Herbert
Josh Allen
Tom Brady

DST 5%+

From the scrub WR tier, beyond Davis at $3,900 and Calloway at $4,200, I think Ced Wilson, Guyton, and Peoples Jones all have legit upside from the lower 3Ks if you NEEEDDDDD a salary saver. Obviously, they have ZERO potential too, hence why they’re so cheap.

There’s a bounty of DK content on MMN right now, but I’d steer you towards my Thursday show with Chris Raybon. Raybon’s usually way too busy to come on regularly but his shows are always awesome. This week’s being no different. If you want a change of pace, the Run Pure Sports crew of Tambo and JT Hayes have a DK breakdown from their POV which is always a part of my weekly research now. I suggest you give it a go too.

NFTs

I don’t really get NFTs, but I’m starting to see the appeal. Every Monday and Friday on MMN we have a NEW SHOW called NFTs Live.

I find it fascinating. I think you will too. If you prefer teh audio, it’s

APPLE https://apple.co/3nJuyss
SPOTIFY https://spoti.fi/3nGgAr5
GOOGLE https://bit.ly/3CnPdGt

WEEK 2 BETS

I love the Bills this week. I’ve said this a lot. I’ve make them my Gold Pick of the week. Watch that Best Bets show btw.

More on the Henderson pick.

It’s unlikely that Sony Michel sees as little usage this week as last, but even a decent decline in Henderson’s role (the man handled 94.4% of LAR RB touches in Week 1, a rate topped by only Najee Harris) could still cash this line. Over the past five seasons, team’s favored by more than a FG run the ball 41% of the time, up from 38.3% in all other situations.

Some other props to consider (outside of Jameis o15.5 rushing yards. Which I also bet)

*Laviska Shenault over 0.5 rushing yards: DEN allowed the 8th most yards per carry to non-QBs on perimeter runs last season (5.6) and Shenault has 19 carries in his 15 career games. The Broncos were 8th best against up-the-middle runs last season and 7th best in Week 1 this season, so I’m banking on Urban Meyer to bring a college gadget type of play (or two or three) to get us there with a player he labeled as his best playmaker this offseason.

*Mike Davis over 20.5 receiving yards: RunTheSims.com/mayo gives us a minor edge with this one and I expect game script to help out even more than our projections do. The Bucs are a pass funnel, something I’m hoping Arthur Smith is savvy enough to acknowledge, especially after he was beating his head against a wall last week trying to #EstablishTheRun. Davis went over this number in Week 1 despite the Falcons being the fifth run heaviest offense while trailing, so any sort of lessons learned from Week 1 should get us there with the Dirty Birds being 12.5-point ‘dogs.

Week 2 OPTIMAL LINUEP

Without making any adjustments to the numbers (something that is super easy) or putting in which stacks I wanted, I ran the opto at Run The Sims and these were the most Optimal lineups it spit out.