SUNDAY LIVE SHOWS
Sunday 945am ET: Week 18 DFS Picks & Viewer Qs
Tambo, Hoop, and the Ship It Nation gang are live on MMN walking you through the incentive of each team, how to stack up your lineups and take Qs if you need to know anything.
Sunday 715pm ET: Week 18 Recap; Wildcard Round Spreads Guesses
It’s the SEASON FINALE of PME Sunday Night Live. Garion is on to close the year with Cust in-studio as Garion will no doubt begin getting panicky leading up to the Dolphins game. If nothing else, it’s your last chance to see who WONT score the 1st TD on SNF until September.
Week 18 Injuries
Levitan and the ETR crew have been all over the injuries and playing time this week. Bless them. I can assure you I didn’t want to track that shit. Here’s where we stand from an injury perspective early Sunday morning.
In DFS, weeks like this where the information gap between the studied and shitter guys is enormous, can be the most fruitful of weeks if you fall into the “studied” category. Run The Sims takes most go the actual studying out of the equation if you’re a member. Here are the optimal plays per 10,000 simulation this week.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS DFS & PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
For the cheaper guys to jam into your lineups to make this all work, here are RTS’ top points per dollar options at RB and WR in Week 18.
Christian Kirk is currently a GTD, but his activation will push so much ownership to him at $3K. I’m fading regardless so that likely makes him a good play.
Back to ETR. Anthony Amico wrote up the most in-depth piece of team motivation this week (That I read, at least).
READ: Week 18 NFL Team Movivation Rankings
Other DraftKings Notes…
GAME STACK: Jaguars at Titans
The Cowboys are likely to be overwhelming chalk and I 100% get that -- division on the line, league worst scoring defense on the other side, proven elite upside. It makes a ton of sense and I'll have some exposure. But when you want to be different, the Jags are in a great spot and will check in at a fraction of the ownership.
Trevor Lawrence is coming off a DNP, so there will be some natural hesitation, even against a pass funnel. But he is fighting for a divisional title and could have his full set of weapons active this week. Travis Etienne is coming off his only 100-yard rushing game in the US this season and wherever he gets rostered, the pass game likely won't be included.
If the Jags are going to produce (I have Ridley/Engram penciled in as my three-player stack, but you can spin it however you like as we get updates), the Titans are in a passing script against a defense that has the 4th highest PROE against this season -- Tyjae Spears has seen 6+ targets in 4 of his past 5 games.
Pick a cheap defense and you're looking at ~ $6,000 left per player
ONE OFF PIECES
DK Metcalf: The Cardinals are flirting with a historic season in terms of RZ trips allowed and the ceiling is crazy for an alpha receiver averaging 17 yards per catch this season.
Zamir White: 20+ touches in 3 straight games, his team isn't motivated to win, but they are motivated to confirm that he is their guy for 2024.
Jake Ferguson: You're going to want some exposure to this game ... 4+ catches in 5 straight games and 10 games this season with 5+ targets. It takes less for a TE to pay off his price tag, so a quick score could not only get him there, but also get this game one step closer to a run script.
DEFENSES
Tampa Bay: Are they a good defense? Nope! But they are better against the run than the pass (5th best YPC defense, 7th worst YPA) -- that could mean we get 40+ Bryce Young dropbacks. There's worse spots to invest in, especially with TB playing with motivation. Paying up to be different can have success
Jacksonville: If the Lawrence thing hits, the Titans are going to be more aggressive than they want to be and that can pay. They are coming off a game with a season high 6 sacks against the Panthers -- if the ownership number is low, this isn't a bad way to correlate further with that Lawrence stack.
That said, I’ll probably just load up SEA/ARZ and pick the wrong players.
2024 ONE AND DONE
REMINDER: STARTS THURSDAY with the Sony Open and there’s only 782 spots remaining as of this writing.
JOIN: $800K PRIZE POOL 2024 GOLF ONE AND DONE ($200 per Entry; 5-Max Entries)
GET A FREE ENTRY!!!!!! (DRAW ON MONDAY)
Two ways:
If you have an entry already or are going to get one soon, tweet a screen shot to me and you’ll be in a draw for another entry, but this time, FOR FREE!!!!
Per the usual SUBSCRIBE (and turn on auto downloads), Rate 5 Stars, and review the PME Audio Podcast. Do it on both Apple & Spotify and get two shots to win!
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Sony Open First Look & Quick Info
I’ll have my full write up THIS newsletter henceforth so sub if you’re used to reading it elsewhere. Probably coome out later Monday or Tuesday morning. We’ll see. If you’re subbed, it’ll get sent to you the moment it drops, so you may well do that considering it’s FREE…
The research show is OUT. I actually included a 1-Minute Quick Preview off the top off the video and Podcast incase you have 60 seconds to get some into and not 45 minutes. Again, please leave those ratings and reviews for the audio pod. Critical at this time of year.
WATCH: Sony Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds
Field: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 11
Defending Champ: Si Woo Kim
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained
Eagles Gained
Good Drives Gained
Course
Course: Waialae CC
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,044
Greens: Bermuda
Past Winners
2023: Si Woo Kim -18
2022: Hideki Matsuyama -23
2021: Kevin Na -21
2020: Cameron Smith -11
2019: Matt Kuchar -22
2018: Patton Kizzire -17
2017: Justin Thomas -27
Early POWER RANKINGS (Will update once Kapalua is finished and stats are loaded)
20% OFF TOOLS, STATS & LINEUP BUILDER AT FANTASY NATIONAL
Sony Opening Odds Guesses
If you want to complain about someone’s theoretical odds, I posted this on Twitter so you can have an instant outlet to yell at someone.
Aberg 12
Fitz 12
Hatton 14
Harman 16
Hideki 20
Henley 22
Theegala 22
Conners 25
Si Woo 28
Kirk 28
Keegan 28
Denny 30
Cole 33
Grillo 35
Rose 35
An 35
Poston 40
Davis 40
Glover 45
Todd 45
Bobby Mac 45
List 45
English 45
Noren 50
Hadwin 50
Taylor 50
Others
Kuchar 60
Rai 60
Kitayama 65
Ryo 75
EVR 80
Horschel 80
Tosti 100
Will Z 100
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 150
Woodland 200
NFL BETTING CHEAT SHEETS
WATCH: Week 18 Best Bets + Teaser + CAM SUPER TEASER!!!
WATCH : Week 18 Spread Picks + Cust Corner
— PM