Week 18 Recap, Team Notes + Sony Open
We made it to the end. Another season of PME Sunday Night LIVE is in the books, and I want to thank everyone for supporting the show and tuning in every Sunday night. Or downloading and listening Monday morning. This week, we recapped the week Lions playing their starters and getting Laportapotty injured, Philly bottoming out, Jake Browning’s Girlfiend, Arthur (not Art) Smith before ranking each team in the AFC and NFC.
In one of my favorite segments every year, we tried to predict the time slots of every playoff game before guessing the spreads for the Wild Card Weekend games. Then we speculated on what the spreads may be if the SNF game went either way
WATCH: Week 18 NFL Recap, NFL Wild Card Weekend Spreads, NFL Playoff Schedule Draft
Oh, Cust gets a surprise gift LIVE on the show and acts like your 80 year old grandma upon receiving it. Just skip to that point tbh.
2024 ONE AND DONE
REMINDER: STARTS THURSDAY with the Sony Open and there’s only 598 spots remaining as of this writing.
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Sony Open First Look & Quick Info
I’ll have my full write up THIS newsletter henceforth so sub if you’re used to reading it elsewhere. Probably coome out later Monday or Tuesday morning. We’ll see. If you’re subbed, it’ll get sent to you the moment it drops, so you may well do that considering it’s FREE…
WATCH: Sony Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds
If you don’t have time for the full 45 mins, here’s the 60 second quick preview…
Sony Open in Hawaii is played at Waialae country club just a shade over 7000 yards, Bermuda grass greens, Par 70, difficult to hit fairways, but the rough is pretty minimal. So it really doesn't matter if you hit the fairways or not. And it is the only course on the PGA tour which had its own N64 game.
Nine of the past 11 winners had played at Kapalua the week before. There are 38 players from the century in the field this week of 144.
It's the first cut event of the 2024 season and we're seeing a slew of players from the DP world tour, graduated from the Korn Ferry tour or just been grinders on the PGA tour for a while. Plus we get the returns of Mav Mcnealy, Will Zalatoris and Gary Woodland for this event.
Almost any skill set plays long off the tee, short off the tee you just need to be dialed in with your irons and make a ton of putts. It's gonna be a birdie fest with the winning score lingering somewhere around minus 20.
Field: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 11
Defending Champ: Si Woo Kim
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained
Eagles Gained
Good Drives Gained
Course
Course: Waialae CC
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,044
Greens: Bermuda
Past Winners
2023: Si Woo Kim -18
2022: Hideki Matsuyama -23
2021: Kevin Na -21
2020: Cameron Smith -11
2019: Matt Kuchar -22
2018: Patton Kizzire -17
2017: Justin Thomas -27
Early POWER RANKINGS (Will update once Kapalua is finished and stats are loaded)
20% OFF TOOLS, STATS & LINEUP BUILDER AT FANTASY NATIONAL
Sony Opening Odds Guesses
If you want to complain about someone’s theoretical odds, I posted this on Twitter so you can have an instant outlet to yell at someone.
Aberg 12
Fitz 12
Hatton 14
Harman 16
Kirk 16
Hideki 20
Henley 22
Theegala 22
Conners 25
Si Woo 28
An 28
Keegan 28
Denny 30
Cole 33
Grillo 35
Rose 35
Poston 40
Davis 40
Glover 45
Todd 45
Bobby Mac 45
List 45
English 45
Noren 50
Hadwin 50
Taylor 50
Others
Kuchar 60
Rai 60
Kitayama 65
Ryo 75
EVR 80
Horschel 80
Tosti 100
Will Z 100
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 150
Woodland 200
Many are saying I’m way off on the Will Z number. They’re probably correct.
Week 18 Team Notes
SEA: Kenneth Walker is the real deal, but think there's a world in which Zach Charbonnet is a post hype sleeper in 2024.
AZ: Michael Wilson is going to generate some hype and I might well stay ahead of it as long as Kyler Murray is in tow.
CHI: We will see how this QB situation plays out. If Chicago drafts a QB, DJ Moore could fall into the back half of my WR2 tier. If Fields is back, he's in the WR1 discussion.
GB: Jordan Love impressed and will get a chance to show out in the playoffs. Not sure if I'm in on him as much different than a variety of QBs in that tier, but I have no issue on counting on his WR1 in Jayden Reed.
PHI: As long as the Brotherly Shove remains, banking on an Eagles RB is going to be difficult ... Swift had a strong role and had his moments, but the floor/ceiling math is tough to justify at what always seems to be an optimistic ADP.
NYG: A niec close to the season for Darius Slayton is just enough to have my attention if they have a reasonable down field threat under center.
DAL: Dak Prescott with a monster year and Tony Pollard destroying teams. Their ADPs will be interesting, but without the rushing potential of the top tier guys, I probably won't end up in the Prescott business in 2024.
WAS: They worked hard to get Terry McLaurin to 1,000 yards ... maybe they'll work hard to get him consistency under center next year. He's a flex option until they do that, even with a skill set that is above that level.
DEN: Who knows where this passing game goes, but I'd guess that the dip on Javonte Williams is significant -- let's see how far he falls, but not against the idea of going this direction.
LV: They probably did enough under Pierce to have him take over this job and if the final month is a sign of things to come, Zamir White is going to matter on a weekly basis.
KC: Travis Kelce has a way of ending seasons slow for fantasy managers. I'm not too worried about him for playoff fantasy leagues or for 2024 redraft ... he's still my TE1, he's just not a first round pick.
LAC: Is it possible that all Charger players come at something of a discount next season? I'm just as nervous as you, but if the price is right, I could see being in on Geoff's Bolts ... again.
CLE: They sat everyone, so nothing new here. Nick Chubb had 32 rushing TDs in 43 games from 2020-22. He's not built like most -- don't forget about him om the early rounds this summer.
CIN: Joe Mixon makes as few highlight plays as any viable option, but he's averaging over 12 TDs per season over his past three. I look forward to another reasonable price tag in 2024.
MIN: Jefferson jot triple digit receiving yards in half of his games this season and even with the unknown QB situation for 2024, he's a pretty clear redraft first rounder.
DET: Sam LaPorta gets banged up, but not before joining Gronk and Ditkas as the only rookie TEs with 10 TD receptions ... It's easy to argue him as a tier 1 TE next season.
JAX: Evan Engram caught 4+ passes in every game this season and somehow kind of flies under the radar. The upside is capped, but he is a solid player with a legitimate QB under center ... that gives him elite potential at this position.
TEN: Derrick Henry did Derrick Henry things, but Tyjae Spears continues to look the part and will be viewed as a safe fantasy starter in 2024 as Henry moves on.
NYJ: It's not crazy to think that two of the top 15 overall players in drafts this summer are Jets. The raw production from Hall and Wilson may not have reached expectations, but given that they had everything possible go wrong, they will enter 2024 with plenty of hype.
NE: I said not to forget about Nick Chubb and the same applies for Rhamondre Stevenson. If you look at his production through 17 weeks last season and use his numbers + Ezekiel Elliott's following his injury, they are nearly identical.
ATL: Arthur Smith's job potentially on the line and Bojan Robinson finds himself featured. Go figure. I have him with a first round grade for 2024 -- ideally with a new head coach.
NO: Derek Carr himself may not be much of a fantasy asset, but he's capable of supporting productive teammates and that leaves me optimistic on Chris Olave in a big way next season.
TB: Rachaad White will be an interesting player this summer. We can all agree that he is limited as a runner, but the role in the pass game is as solid as it gets. I'm OK not drafting him, but he's not an active fade for me.
CAR: I have a hard time thinking any of these Panthers are relied upon in any sort of significant fashion next season. That said, I'll be rolling the dice late in drafts as a way to bet on second season development from Bryce Yong. Low cost, high reward. That's the name of the game!
— PM