Week 18 + PGA Picks/Bets/DraftKings
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Sentry ToC DraftKings Picks
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Week 18 Spread Picks + Cust Corner
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2023 FANTASY GOLF DRAFT
PGA Season & Majors Preview
PME RAKE FREE PGA CONTEST
DOP UFC YEAR IN REVIEW + AWARDS
SENTRY BETS
It’s THAT TIME AGAIN to go full speed into golf season. Here’s where I’m going in the year opener…
JOIN: ME DRAFTKINGS RAKE FREE PGA CONTEST
Collin Morikawa — Morikawa only managed three Top 10s after leaving the California swing last year; Masters, US Open, and St. Jude. Three elite fields. And while he’s never won at Kapalua, he been uber consistent. Three appearances; three Top 7 finishes. If he managed to improve his putting stroke, even a little, over the break, he’ll certainly be lingering Sunday with a chance to get back into the winner’s circle. I’m expecting a YUGE bounce back year in 2023, so why not start here?
Hideki Matsuyama — The results were quite poor from June on, but Matsuyama has flashed at Kapalua in the past (Three Top 4s in five starts), and his iron play wasn’t all that poor during the fall stretch. It was mainly the driving. And even then, in two of three starts in the swing, he gained distance on the field but the accuracy was so bad he lost strokes off the tee. You need to be hilariously inaccurate to miss these giant fairways. The number simply seems too large for a player of this quality.
BRIAN HARMAN — Closed the swing season on a heater, and returns to a course which should fit his eye. He’s posted a 3rd/T17 in two appearances in his career which tracks, because half the time the ToC just boils down to a wedge and putting contest. The perfect scenario for Harman to excel.
Viktor Hovland — Vik closed the year claiming victory at the ultimate hit and giggle in the Bahamas when he bested 13 others for a win at the Hero World Challenge. That now gives him four PGA (and adjacent) titles in his career. None of which have come on the mainland of the United States. So, he’s in luck, as last time I checked a globe, Hawaii was still an island in the Pacific. Beyond silly narratives, the biggest improvement in his game over the last year as been his around the green work. No, it’s still not good, but at least it vacillates between OK and truly terrible now instead of just being the worst. If he can not chip himself out of this event Hovland certainly as the ball striking to generate the amount of birdie opportunities to claim another title. Or at least a Top 10
PGA DRAFTKINGS
On the DraftKings side, it’s always tough in a no-cut, 39 player event. Especially when it comes to projecting ownership. Here are the projected Top 4 from Fantasy National for larger GPPs but the margin of error is quite large this week. For example, Sungjae is 28% projected. There’s a decent chance he could push 35%+ with the buzz I’ve heard about him. But ownership is just one part of making DK lineups, and Fantasy National has the model, lineup generator, and more tools to help you come to your best decisions. Including some new tools dropping very soon…
GET 20% OFF FANTASY NATIONAL DFS/BETTING TOOLS
ONE AND DONE
The Race For the Mayo Cup ($50K to FIRST) starts next week at the Sony Open, but it’s pacing to be full well before that. It’s appraoching
The Race For the Mayo Cup ($50K to FIRST) starts next week at the Sony Open, but it’s pacing to be full well before that. It’s approaching 75% full as of this writing and there’s still the people who haven’t realized that golf has actually started yet. I gave away a free entry on the DraftKings Picks show Wednesday with Tambo; I’ll be giving four more FREE ENTRIES away on next Monday’s show with Fienberg.
If you wanna get in the draw just send a screen shot to me (@ThePME on Twitter/Instagram/Facebook) with two entries already in the contest. (You can have up to five). Do that and you might get topped up to a third.
For those who don’t know the concept for a One and Done league; it’s as simple as it gets: Pick one player per tournament all year long. Once you pick a player you can’t use them again. That’s it. Takes about 20 seconds a week if you want it to. Or you can stress about it for days. That’s the beauty. $125 per entry for the year and you can have up to five of them.
JOIN: 2023 GOLF ONE AND DONE LEAGUE
For more golf coverage, I highly recomend my guy Axis’ substack newsletter. Since you’re already on the page, you may as well check it out. Completely free!
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NFL PICKS
Yes, football is still happening. So muc so, that me, Cust and Geoff got together to pick the games. As we’re want to do. The Best Bets and DK Picks show will be out Thursday and Friday. In this episode we learn you should never invite Cust to a Potluck unless you’re really into 50% off expired birthday cake.
WATCH: Week 18 Spread Picks & Cust Corner
NFL DRAFTKINGS
As more and more players get benched and held out in Week 18 the more and more the projections are going to change. However, Week 18 can be a printfest if you’re up to date on all the last secodn information. GOOD NEWS, Justin at Run The Sims will have the last batch of projections and optimals primed for after actives are announced Sunday morning. (Well, before each game). So now’s an excellent time to get in on Run The Sims NFL product with the smaller slate/Larger dollar weeks approaching…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
NFL Betting Insight
Week 18 is a strange beast. News will come in and numbers will shift, but if you’re looking for teams that have been over/under estimated by Vegas over the past eight weeks, I have you covered:
A final parting shot that might be worth storing in the back of your head as you prepare for the final weekend of the regular season. Over the past five (regular) seasons, unders have cashed 58.3% of the time in games with a double digit favorite. The board is littered with them this week … betting unders is no fun, but making money is and they may be a means to that end to wrap the season!
— PM