Week 17 Picks, Props, Trends, Injuries, Cheatsheets
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
If you only tune into The PME during football season, what kind of shows would you like to see between Super Bowl and Week 1 to keep you listening and watching during the off-season? You can reply to this newsletter with an answer. Thanks
ONE AND DONE
The One and Done starts at the Sony Open, which is exactly two weeks from today. It’s 30% full right now and that’s going to start filling VERY FAST once I start dropping golf shows, so reserve your spot ASAP. If you have an entry already or are going to get one soon, tweet a screen shot to me and you’ll be in a draw for another entry, but this time, FOR FREE!!!!
JOIN: $800K PRIZE POOL 2024 GOLF ONE AND DONE ($200 per Entry; 5-Max Entries)
I’ll have more FREE ENTRY GIVEAWAYS coming next week, so stay tuned.
If you’re fiending for more golf content, I have you cover, as do some of my friends. Geoff and I did our year in review. That’s out now.
WATCH: Golf Year in Review | PGA TOUR vs LIV, Hovland Breakthrough, Michael Block, Biggest Winners
We also did a look-a-head to 2024 with predictions and Majors preview. That is getting released on New Year’s Day, but you can watch it now if you like…
WATCH: 2024 Fantasy Golf Season Preview | PGA TOUR & LIV | 2024 Majors Picks | Tiger Return + Mailbag
If you’re a reader, you’ll want to check out Byron Lindeque’s (The Model Maniac) breakdown of of whether betting markets are more favorable to you if “ties paid in full” or “dead heat rules apply” at each sports book. A very interesting read.
ARTICLE: To Bet Ties Paid in Full or The Better Odds with Dead Heat?
You can also sub to
on substack for free to get weekly Golf betting info for PGA and worldwide tours.Week 17 Injuries
RB
Isiah Pacheco (Concussion) — Expected OUT
D’Onta Foreman (Personal) — Expected IN
Zack Moss (Shoulder) — Questionable
Brian Robinson (Hamstring) — Questionable
Josh Jacobs (Knee) — Questionable
Chris Rodriguez — Placed on Injured Reserve
Jerick McKinnon (groin) — Placed on Injured Reserve
Rhamondre Stevenson (Ankle) — Placed on Injured Reserve
Week 17 Rankings
WATCH: Week 17 Rankings, Starts, Sits
RB https://bit.ly/23W17RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W17WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W17QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W17TEDSTRanks
WR
Amari Cooper (heel) — Questionable for TNF
Joshua Palmer (concussion) — Expected OUT
Keenan Allen (Heel) — Expected OUT
Courtland Sutton (Head) — Expected OUT
Christian Watson (Hamstring) — Expected OUT
Kadarius Toney (hip) — Expected OUT
Michael Pittman (Concussion) — Expected IN
Jayden Reed (Toe) — Expected IN
Zay Jones (Hamstring) — Expected IN
Jaylen Waddle — Questionable
Jordan Addison (Ankle) — Questionable
Dontayvion Wicks (Chest) — Questionable
Deebo Samuel (neck) — Questionable
Ja'Marr Chase (Shoulder) — Questionable
JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) — Questionable
Marquise Brown (Heel) — Questionable
TE
TJ Hockenson (Knee) — OUT FOR SEASON
Greg Dulcich (hamstring, foot) — Expected OUT
Michael Mayer (toe) — Expected OUT
Cole Kmet (Game) — Questionable
Luke Musgrave — Questionable
Hunter Henry (Knee) — Questionable
QB
Nick Mullens (BENCHED) — Jaren Hall Starting
Russell Wilson (BENCHED) — Jarrett Stidham Starting
Sam Howell (BENCHED) — Jacoby Brissett Starting
Tommy DeVito (BENCHED) — Tyrod Taylor Starting
Kenny Pickett (ankle) — Mason Rudolph Starting
Trevor Lawrence (Shoulder) — Expected OUT
Brock Purdy (Stinger) — Expected IN
CJ Stroud (Concussion) — Expected IN
Will Levis (Leg) — Expected IN
TNF PROP
Breece Hall has hit the over of 14.5 rushes just three times this season. Twice in Jets wins, and once in that weird MNF game vs the Chargers for reasons unknown. With little left to play for and as 7.5 point dogs it would seem surprising if they just made Hall a work horse on the ground playing from behind.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
I’ll wait for more props to get released through out the day and try to cobble together another losing same game parlay effort. I’ll put that out in Twitter if you care and wanna find it.
Week 17 Cheatsheets
Pat Mayo, Rob Pizzola, and Cam Stewart give their 2023 NFL Week 17 Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.
WATCH: Week 17 Best Bets, Teaser + Russell Wilson Benched
Pat Mayo, Geoff Fienberg and Tim Anderson go game-by-game and make their 2023 Week 17 Spread Picks, Bets and Props. Plus, a mini Cust Corner on QR Menus, Food Dollies.
WATCH: Week 17 Spread Picks, Circa Survivor, NFL Awards | Cust Corner: QR Code Menus, Food Dollies
Week 17 Team Trends
Overs are 7-2 since the beginning of last season when the Lions play a top 10 passing offense. The Cowboys are the best ATS home team since the beginning of last season, covering 12 of 16 games.
The Patriots are a league worst 1-8 ATS when getting more than three points in a game since the start of 2022. The Bills have won four of their past five games against the Patriots with an average of 52.8 points being scored in those games.
Since the beginning of last season, unders are 12-4 when the Falcons are catching points, the highest hit rate in the NFL. The Bears are fresh off of a win at home against the Cardinals and that made Week 16 a success -- but Week 17? Chicago has failed to cover four of five games following a home victory since the beginning of last season, tied for the worst rate in the league.
The Colts give up the fifth most rushing yards per game and the Raiders are 7-2 ATS against bottom 10 run defenses since the beginning of last season (second best). The Colts are a perfect 5-0 outright this season when favored.
The Rams are the fourth best ATS road team this season (5-2). No team has a higher under rate since the beginning of 2021 when playing at home than the Giants (76.2%).
Overs are a league-best 9-3 since the beginning of last season when the Cardainls play a top 10 offense. Overs are a league-best 12-4 when the Eagles play in front of their home fans since the beginning of last season.
The Bucs have proven to be a stout run defense and vulnerable pass defense through 16 weeks. Well, the Saints have seen all seven games this season against bottom 10 pass defenses come in under the projected total this season. No team has a worse ATS record at home since 2022 than the Buccaneers (4-10).
Unders are 8-3 since the start of last season when the 49ers oppose a bottom 10 run defense. The Commanders are just 4-9-2 ATS at home since the beginning of last season, underachieving based on spready by an average of 6.7 points.
The Panthers are the worst ATS road team since the beginning of 2021 (8-16-1), but they've been better than you think ATS against the division since the beginning of last season: 7-3-1. The Jaguars are just 9-14 ATS at home since the beginning of 2021 (39.1%).
Overs are 14-9 since 2021 when the Dolphins play on the road, the second highest hit rate in the league over that stretch (only the Chiefs have a higher over rate). The Ravens are 8-2 ATS since the beginning of last season when facing a top 10 offense.
Four straight games in this series have been decided by a single possession. Over those four games, the Titans have outscored the Texans 75-73. The Texans have seen under tickets in 10 of their past 12 games against bottom 10 pass offenses.
Unders are a league-best 5-1 this seaosn when the Steelers play on the road. The Seahawks are 4-0 outright against bottom 10 pass offenses this season.
The Chargers are 0-7 outright since the beginning of last season when getting more than a field goal. The Broncos won the first meeting in Week 14, snapping a seven-game win streak by the home team in this series. The Bolts last won in Denver on December 30, 2018.
If you consider the slumping Chiefs a top 10 pass game, it's worth noting that the Bengals are 6-1 outright since the beginning of last season against top 10 pass offenses. Unders are 5-1-1 when the Chiefs play at home this season (third highest).
Overs are a perfect 6-0 this season following a Packers win this season. The Vikings are looking to sweep the season series with the Packers, something they haven't done since the 2017 season, a team led by Case Keenum.
— PM