If xmas isn’t your bag, baby, merry day of relaxing. If you need time to kill, as is the annual tradition, you’re welcome to consume a BRAND NEW Very Custy Christmas. OUT NOW!!!!!
It’s up on all Audio Pod feeds too. Have some laughs and enjoy the break from the family.
Week 16 PROPS
Make sure to use code “MMN” at Prize Picks to get a deposit match up to $100. So, deposit $100, get another $100 for nothing. Easy game.
REMINDER: TAKE ADVANTAGE of the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. ANDa bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. It’s the perfect bankroll builder.
Or just lean on the computer to make the picks with its projections. You can customize the projections, or just roll out the base line. I assume you, it’s more accurate than me.
Week 16 Rankings
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Post Inactives
Week 16 Injury Report
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Post Inactives
Rhamondre Stevenson (COVID LIST) OUT
Leonard Fournette (Hamstring) OUT; Placed on IR
JD McKissic (Neck) OUT; Placed on IR
Dalvin Cook (COVID LIST) OUT
Kareem Hunt (Ankle) Likely OUT
David Johnson (quad) Likely OUT
Austin Ekeler (COVID LIST) OUT
D’Andre Swift (shoulder) OUT
Joe Mixon (Knee) Likely IN
Jamaal Williams (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Phillip Lindsay (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Travis Homer (Calf/COVID LIST) Likely IN
Alexander Mattison (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Alex Collins (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Damien Harris (Hamstring) Likely IN
Miles Sanders (Quad) Likely IN
Antonio Gibson (Toe) GAME TIME DECISION
Carlos Hyde (concussion) QUESTIONABLE
Elijah Mitchell (Knee) DNP
James Conner (heel) DNP
Brandin Cooks (COVID LIST) OUT
Mike Williams (COVID LIST) OUT
Jalen Guyton (COVID LIST) OUT
Cole Beasley (COVID LIST) OUT
Nelson Agholor (Head) OUT
Mike Evans (Hamstring) OUT
Gabriel Davis (COVID LIST) OUT
Devin Duvernay (ankle) OUT
Laviska Shenault (COVID LIST) OUT
Jamison Crowder (Calf) Likely OUT
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (COVID LIST) OUT
Breshad Perriman (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Allen Robinson (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Adam Thielen (Ankle) Likely IN
D.J. Moore (hamstring) Likely IN
Tyreek Hill (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Antonio Brown (FAKE VAX) Likely IN
Sammy Watkins (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Tyler Lockett (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Kendrick Bourne (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Marquise Goodwin (foot) QUESTIONABLE
Kadarius Toney (quad) QUESTIONABLE
Zay Jones (toe) QUESTIONABLE
Rondale Moore (Ankle) DNP
Chris Godwin (Knee) OUT FOR SEASON
Elijah Moore (Quad) ON IR
Tyler Huntley (COVID LIST) OUT
Lamar Jackson (Ankle) Likely OUT
Baker Mayfield (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Taylor Heinicke (Knee/COVID LIST) Likely IN
Sam Darnold (Shoulder) Likely IN
Taysom Hill (COVID LIST) OUT
Teddy Bridgewater (Head) OUT
Justin Fields (Ankle) OUT; Nick Foles Will Start
Jared Goff (COVID LIST) OUT
Austin Hooper (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Tyler Higbee (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Travis Kelce (COVID LIST) OUT
Pat Freiermuth (Head) OUT
Donald Parham Jr. (Concussion) OUT; Placed on IR
Darren Waller (Knee) Likely OUT
Juwan Johnson (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Adam Trautman (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
So let’s be clear: I have no idea who is actually suiting this week at this point. This week will favor the dedicated … or simply the available. If you’re tracking news up to lineup lock, you’re already ahead of the field. One other (less obvious) way to get ahead of the field: track the betting market. Vegas gets and processes information faster than the public (hence why they build tall buildings out there) and their lines will reflect the current state of these rosters. So what impact does the projected total have on fantasy production? We are targeting ceiling outcomes, so here are the PPG averages of the elite performances at each point total band.
*Note: The WR position is the one to prioritize in those projected shootouts
*Note: Fading D/ST in shootouts is fine, but don’t shy away from any other game environment
GALAXY BRAIN: The Art Of The Fade
Ronald Jones is going to be crazy popular and he should be. But this is the NFL. In 2021. Is there a single thing that will surprise you any more? So let’s do game theory overthinking before we select a single player. If we lock in Ronald Jones ($5,100) while assuming a punt D/ST and TE play (I like the Bears and Zach Gentry [with Freiermuth OUT] , but you can mix-and-match … point remains: popular pay down spots as we try to construct what will be common builds. This leaves you $6,550 per player.
QB: COVID concerns in KC, Josh Allen gets NE without Cole Beasley and with Ronald Jones, rostering Tom Brady minus weapons is unlikely. That leaves Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford among the top QBs to roster … I’m assuming the discount to get to Stafford will be enough to draw people that way.
RB: Consecutive big games for Miles Sanders and a lack of health at the top of the RB board: assuming health, he should draw plenty of clicks.
WR: With Stafford already on this roster, any reason to not go Cooper Kupp? And with Gabriel Davis gaining steam, tough to imagine he goes overlooked at $4,700, even in a less than ideal matchup. Well, he wouldn’t have been overlooked, but like the BEESSSSS, he too is now out. So just double up on Bucs and grab Antonio Brown as discount $4,900.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is another red hot receiver and he’ll benefit not just from increased discussion around him of late, but also the friendly “29th” next to his name on DK’s platform. Go that direction and you can get up to Keenan Allen for your flex, giving you exposure to the Justin Herbert offense without fully diving into the stack.
So how do we create something to beat this sort of build? Let’s start with paying down a bit with Joe Burrow. The Bengals had more than 4x as many passing yards as rushing yards in the first meeting with the Ravens and anything close to that game plan is going to be profitable in this spot. In Weeks 12-14, the three games prior to the Week 15 dud of a game against the Broncos, Tee Higgins accounted for 43.7% of Cincinnati receiving yards. That led all players that played in all three of those weeks.
Add in a dash of Antonio Brown to get off the Ronald Jones popularity and buy the dip on Cordarrelle Patterson/Saquon Barkley (as mentioned in the Tuesday newsletter): now we are in business. Want to get creative? Mini stack, two tight end build. It’s Week 16. Why not embrace the chaos? Over the past month, the Raiders D/ST has a total of 4 DK points, so I can’t imagine they are overly popular despite the spot against the Drew Lock led Broncos. Did you know that Vegas has the 3rd highest QB Contact rate this season? That’s enough for me!
The floor is obviously low. But this lineup has a combination of volume and scoring equity that will come without any real ownership concerns. Again, would anything this week surprise you? My answer is no, so I have no real problem fading what people think they know and chasing upside.
GOLF IS BACK!!!!!!
The Race for the MAYO CUP is BACK for 2022. And the prize pool is BIGGER this time around. It’s one pick in golf per week for the season, $125 per entry, up to five entries. So there’s $625 in dead money just from me.
If you’re a higher (or lower) roller, there are contests for you as well. This doesn’t start until the second week in January, but based on last year, it may be filled by New Year’s day. so GET IN NOW!!!!!
SPOLIER: There may be private leagues coming as well if you wanna take on your buddies.
Additionally, we always want to make sure Fantasy National is up to snuff for tools and data, and I’m FIRED UP to announce a BRAND NEW feature to the site. If you click on “Distance/Accuracy” on each player profile, you can now see how players shape the ball off the tee! I know this is something people have be looking for for years and now we’ve got it.
If you missed Part 1 of the Season Long Golf Draft… SHAME!!!!!! You can rectify that however and simple watch it now. I’m giving away free entrees into the OAD contest, so watch it just to find out what you need to do.
If you loved part one and for whatever reason can’t wait for part two, you’re in luck. Although it won’t come out until next Monday, you can get it here, right now
Week 16 BETS
I’ve already lost my gold pick, so fuck this week. Luckily, as mentioned on the show, waiting for those Julio props and smashing the unders helped make up for the cameo from Jimmy G League Thursday night.
Cust and his BEST PAL, The Coin, have jumped out to the early lead with Les Titans Thursday night. It’s funny in retrospect to see him try and curse the Dolphins by hyping them up, only to result in the Saints losing all their players for MNF.
Week 16 DraftKings Ownership
A new COVID drop Saturday or Sunday morning can really throw these out of whack. Or if Ekeler is all of a sudden playing. But for the most part, the chalk tends to be gravitating all towards the same place. If you can find a pay UP RB you like or one/two $6K-$7.5 WR you like, you team will be verrrryyyyyy different.
I went over the most common roster construction on Friday’s show. And, as a bonus, it’s only like 4-5 mins, not 4-5 hours like usual.