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Week 16 Injury Report, CUST CORNER, DK Own
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Week 16 Injury Report, CUST CORNER, DK Own

+ Cheatsheets & Golf OAD

Mayo Media
Dec 25, 2021
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MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!

If xmas isn’t your bag, baby, merry day of relaxing. If you need time to kill, as is the annual tradition, you’re welcome to consume a BRAND NEW Very Custy Christmas. OUT NOW!!!!!

WATCH: CUST CORNER 37: MERRY CUSTMAS 2021

It’s up on all Audio Pod feeds too. Have some laughs and enjoy the break from the family.

Week 16 PROPS

Make sure to use code “MMN” at Prize Picks to get a deposit match up to $100. So, deposit $100, get another $100 for nothing. Easy game.

PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”

REMINDER: TAKE ADVANTAGE of the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. ANDa bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. It’s the perfect bankroll builder.

Or just lean on the computer to make the picks with its projections. You can customize the projections, or just roll out the base line. I assume you, it’s more accurate than me.

TOOLS: Run The Sims Optimizer, Simulations & Projections only $100 from now through the Super Bowl

Week 16 Rankings

Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Post Inactives

RB https://bit.ly/21W16RBs
WR https://bit.ly/21W16WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W16QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W16TEDST

WATCH: Week 16 Injury Update/DK Picks

Week 16 Injury Report

Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Post Inactives

Running Back

  • Rhamondre Stevenson (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Leonard Fournette (Hamstring) OUT; Placed on IR

  • JD McKissic (Neck) OUT; Placed on IR

  • Dalvin Cook (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Kareem Hunt (Ankle) Likely OUT

  • David Johnson (quad) Likely OUT

  • Austin Ekeler (COVID LIST) OUT

  • D’Andre Swift (shoulder) OUT

  • Joe Mixon (Knee) Likely IN

  • Jamaal Williams (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Phillip Lindsay (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Travis Homer (Calf/COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Alexander Mattison (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Alex Collins (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Damien Harris (Hamstring) Likely IN

  • Miles Sanders (Quad) Likely IN

  • Antonio Gibson (Toe) GAME TIME DECISION

  • Carlos Hyde (concussion) QUESTIONABLE

  • Elijah Mitchell (Knee) DNP

  • James Conner (heel) DNP

Wide Receiver

  • Brandin Cooks (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Mike Williams (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Jalen Guyton (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Cole Beasley (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Nelson Agholor (Head) OUT

  • Mike Evans (Hamstring) OUT

  • Gabriel Davis (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Devin Duvernay (ankle) OUT

  • Laviska Shenault (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Jamison Crowder (Calf) Likely OUT

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Breshad Perriman (COVID LIST) Likely OUT

  • Allen Robinson (COVID LIST) Likely OUT

  • Adam Thielen (Ankle) Likely IN

  • D.J. Moore (hamstring) Likely IN

  • Tyreek Hill (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Antonio Brown (FAKE VAX) Likely IN

  • Sammy Watkins (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Tyler Lockett (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Kendrick Bourne (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Marquise Goodwin (foot) QUESTIONABLE

  • Kadarius Toney (quad) QUESTIONABLE

  • Zay Jones (toe) QUESTIONABLE

  • Rondale Moore (Ankle) DNP

  • Chris Godwin (Knee) OUT FOR SEASON

  • Elijah Moore (Quad) ON IR

Quarterback

  • Tyler Huntley (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Lamar Jackson (Ankle) Likely OUT

  • Baker Mayfield (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Taylor Heinicke (Knee/COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Sam Darnold (Shoulder) Likely IN

  • Taysom Hill (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Teddy Bridgewater (Head) OUT

  • Justin Fields (Ankle) OUT; Nick Foles Will Start

  • Jared Goff (COVID LIST) OUT

Tight End

  • Austin Hooper (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Tyler Higbee (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Travis Kelce (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Pat Freiermuth (Head) OUT

  • Donald Parham Jr. (Concussion) OUT; Placed on IR

  • Darren Waller (Knee) Likely OUT

  • Juwan Johnson (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE

  • Adam Trautman (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE

NOTES

So let’s be clear: I have no idea who is actually suiting this week at this point. This week will favor the dedicated … or simply the available. If you’re tracking news up to lineup lock, you’re already ahead of the field. One other (less obvious) way to get ahead of the field: track the betting market. Vegas gets and processes information faster than the public (hence why they build tall buildings out there) and their lines will reflect the current state of these rosters. So what impact does the projected total have on fantasy production? We are targeting ceiling outcomes, so here are the PPG averages of the elite performances at each point total band.

*Note: The WR position is the one to prioritize in those projected shootouts

*Note: Fading D/ST in shootouts is fine, but don’t shy away from any other game environment

GALAXY BRAIN: The Art Of The Fade

Ronald Jones is going to be crazy popular and he should be. But this is the NFL. In 2021. Is there a single thing that will surprise you any more? So let’s do game theory overthinking before we select a single player. If we lock in Ronald Jones ($5,100) while assuming a punt D/ST and TE play (I like the Bears and Zach Gentry [with Freiermuth OUT] , but you can mix-and-match … point remains: popular pay down spots as we try to construct what will be common builds. This leaves you $6,550 per player.

QB: COVID concerns in KC, Josh Allen gets NE without Cole Beasley and with Ronald Jones, rostering Tom Brady minus weapons is unlikely. That leaves Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford among the top QBs to roster … I’m assuming the discount to get to Stafford will be enough to draw people that way.

RB: Consecutive big games for Miles Sanders and a lack of health at the top of the RB board: assuming health, he should draw plenty of clicks.

WR: With Stafford already on this roster, any reason to not go Cooper Kupp? And with Gabriel Davis gaining steam, tough to imagine he goes overlooked at $4,700, even in a less than ideal matchup. Well, he wouldn’t have been overlooked, but like the BEESSSSS, he too is now out. So just double up on Bucs and grab Antonio Brown as discount $4,900.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is another red hot receiver and he’ll benefit not just from increased discussion around him of late, but also the friendly “29th” next to his name on DK’s platform. Go that direction and you can get up to Keenan Allen for your flex, giving you exposure to the Justin Herbert offense without fully diving into the stack.

So how do we create something to beat this sort of build? Let’s start with paying down a bit with Joe Burrow. The Bengals had more than 4x as many passing yards as rushing yards in the first meeting with the Ravens and anything close to that game plan is going to be profitable in this spot. In Weeks 12-14, the three games prior to the Week 15 dud of a game against the Broncos, Tee Higgins accounted for 43.7% of Cincinnati receiving yards. That led all players that played in all three of those weeks.

Add in a dash of Antonio Brown to get off the Ronald Jones popularity and buy the dip on Cordarrelle Patterson/Saquon Barkley (as mentioned in the Tuesday newsletter): now we are in business. Want to get creative? Mini stack, two tight end build. It’s Week 16. Why not embrace the chaos? Over the past month, the Raiders D/ST has a total of 4 DK points, so I can’t imagine they are overly popular despite the spot against the Drew Lock led Broncos. Did you know that Vegas has the 3rd highest QB Contact rate this season? That’s enough for me!

The floor is obviously low. But this lineup has a combination of volume and scoring equity that will come without any real ownership concerns. Again, would anything this week surprise you? My answer is no, so I have no real problem fading what people think they know and chasing upside.

GOLF IS BACK!!!!!!

The Race for the MAYO CUP is BACK for 2022. And the prize pool is BIGGER this time around. It’s one pick in golf per week for the season, $125 per entry, up to five entries. So there’s $625 in dead money just from me.

If you’re a higher (or lower) roller, there are contests for you as well. This doesn’t start until the second week in January, but based on last year, it may be filled by New Year’s day. so GET IN NOW!!!!!

PLAY: GOLF ONE AND DONE LEAGUE

SPOLIER: There may be private leagues coming as well if you wanna take on your buddies.

Additionally, we always want to make sure Fantasy National is up to snuff for tools and data, and I’m FIRED UP to announce a BRAND NEW feature to the site. If you click on “Distance/Accuracy” on each player profile, you can now see how players shape the ball off the tee! I know this is something people have be looking for for years and now we’ve got it.

JOIN: Fantasy National Golf Club (20% Discount)

If you missed Part 1 of the Season Long Golf Draft… SHAME!!!!!! You can rectify that however and simple watch it now. I’m giving away free entrees into the OAD contest, so watch it just to find out what you need to do.

WATCH: PGA PLAYER DRAFT PICKS 1-33

If you loved part one and for whatever reason can’t wait for part two, you’re in luck. Although it won’t come out until next Monday, you can get it here, right now

WATCH: PGA PLAYER DRAFT PICKS 34-66

Week 16 BETS

I’ve already lost my gold pick, so fuck this week. Luckily, as mentioned on the show, waiting for those Julio props and smashing the unders helped make up for the cameo from Jimmy G League Thursday night.

WATCH: Week 16 Best Bets

Cust and his BEST PAL, The Coin, have jumped out to the early lead with Les Titans Thursday night. It’s funny in retrospect to see him try and curse the Dolphins by hyping them up, only to result in the Saints losing all their players for MNF.

WATCH: Week 16 Picks Against the Spread + Cust Corner

Week 16 DraftKings Ownership

A new COVID drop Saturday or Sunday morning can really throw these out of whack. Or if Ekeler is all of a sudden playing. But for the most part, the chalk tends to be gravitating all towards the same place. If you can find a pay UP RB you like or one/two $6K-$7.5 WR you like, you team will be verrrryyyyyy different.

I went over the most common roster construction on Friday’s show. And, as a bonus, it’s only like 4-5 mins, not 4-5 hours like usual.

WATCH: Week 16 DraftKings Picks

RB

James Robinson
Alexander Mattison
Ronald Jones
Justin Jackson

WR

Cooper Kupp
Antonio Brown
Justin Jefferson
Keenan Allen

TE

Dallas Goedert
Rob Gronkowski
Mark Andrews

QB

Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts
Matthew Stafford

DST

Falcons
Eagles

— PM

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