Week 15 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, DK Notes

Mayo Media

Dec 14, 2022

TNF SF at SEA DraftKings Picks + Props

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HOT LINKS

Week 15 Rankings Debate

Week 15 RANKS LISTS

RB https://bit.ly/22W15RBRanks

WR https://bit.ly/22W15WRRanks

QB https://bit.ly/22W15QBRanks

TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W15DSTTE

Week 15 Injuries

Kenneth Walker III (ankle) — Likely IN

DeeJay Dallas (ankle) — Likely OUT

Jeff Wilson (Hip) — Likely OUT

Rhamondre Stevenson — Questionable

Damien Harris (thigh) — Questionable

Dameon Pierce (Ankle) — Expected To Miss 1-2 Weeks

Dontrell Hilliard (neck) — Likely OUT

Mike Boone (Ankle) — Placed on IR

Mark Ingram (knee) — Placed on IR

Khalil Herbert (hip) — May return Week 16.

Deebo Samuel (Ankle) — OUT 3-6 Weeks

Corey Davis (Concussion) — Likely OUT

Kendall Hinton (Hamstring) — Likely OUT

Courtland Sutton (hamstring) — Likely OUT

Brandin Cooks (Calf) — Likely OUT

Nico Collins (foot) — Likely OUT

Treylon Burks (Concussion) — Likely OUT

Rondale Moore (Groin) — Placed on IR

Tyreek Hill (Ankle) — Likely IN

DJ Moore (Ankle) — Likley IN

Chase Claypool (knee) — Questionable

Julio Jones (knee) — Questionable

Jakobi Meyers (concussion) — Questionable

Laviska Shenault (shoulder) — Questionable

Hunter Renfrow (oblique) — Questionable

DeVante Parker (Concussion) — Questionable

Tee Higgins (Hamstring) — Questionable

Tyler Boyd (Finger) — Questionable

Mecole Hardman (abdomen) — Questionable

Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — Questionable

Romeo Doubs (Ankle) — Questionable

Richie James (Concussion) — Questionable

Hayden Hurst (calf) — Likely OUT

Pat Freiermuth (foot) — Questionable

Darren Waller (hamstring) — Questionable

Dallas Goedert (Shoulder) — Questionable

Russell Wilson (Concussion) — Questionable

Kenny Pickett (Concussion) — Questionable

Kyle Murray (Knee) — OUT for Season

Lamar Jackson (Knee) — Likely OUT

Tyler Huntley (Concussion) — Likely IN

Mike White (Ribs) — Likely IN

John Wolford (neck) — OUT

Galaxy Brain: Fading The King

Derrick Henry is priced as RB3 and is in the ideal spot against a porous Chargers run defense. There aren’t any bye weeks, but there are 12 teams not on the main slate (TNF, Saturday triple header, SNF and MNF), giving managers even less room for creativity. How do you not land on Henry as a building block and go from there?

Faith. Well, that and some numbers. The game theory angle is pretty clear: Henry is in a great spot and is the type of back with slate breaking upside. He’s going to be (and should be) popular. But humor me for a minute. His Titans opened as a ‘dog this week and he averages 10.5 fewer DK PPG in losses this season than wins. There is no denying that his floor is lower than those he is priced around (his ceiling is admittedly as high, if not higher, but that’s not the world we are living in here). Three of his five dud games this year came against a player that is currently priced as a top-5 MVP contender. No, Justin Herbert isn’t there, but can you name five guys playing the position at a higher level right now? It’s also worth noting that three of those five underwhelming Henry games came against a defense that currently allows more fantasy points than average to the position … in theory, plus matchups like what the Chargers are. Game script, people. If we are telling the right story … we want to be really right. I mean REALLY right.

Remember those three dud games against MVP candidates I mentioned?

*Hurts threw for 380 (Brown and Smith combined for a 13-221-3 line)

*Allen threw for 317 (Diggs went 12-148-3)

*Tee Higgins accounted for 42.2% of Burrow’s passing yards and caught a TD

So if you’re fading Henry, loading up on the Chargers pass game (Herbert and Williams for me) makes plenty of sense. Oh, and Henry isn’t trending up like he normally does this time of year. Over his past five games: 3.6 yards per carry (and that includes a 50-yarder, 3.1 YPC without that big run). And in those five games … just 3 of his 92 carries gained more than 10 yards.

You’re obviously living dangerously by fading Henry. That said, it’s rare to leverage such a spot like this with some math backing you. Ready to get funky in Week 15??

Week 15 DraftKings

At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across the main slate. With the Chargers back on the main slate (only 10 games), they’re back to populating the top of the optimals.

Week 15 Spread Picks

That damn step counter APP is back to bullying cust. Geoff is ready for a Nanny State if it means giving out more parking tickets, and some football is discussed also.

WATCH: Week 15 Spreads + Cust Corner

— PM