Discover more from Mayo Media Newsletter
Week 15 Injury Report, Updated Ranks, DK Own
+ Player Notes & Secret Golf Show
First of all, fill up the PME DraftKings league. It’s Rake Free, this should be the first tournament you enter every week. So here’s the link…
Week 15 Props Contest
REMINDER: TAKE ADVANTAGE of the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. ANDa bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. It’s the perfect bankroll builder
Here’s the weekly two-pack…
Week 15 Rankings
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Inactives
Week 15 Injury Report
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Inactives
LV/CLE Postponed Until MONDAY
PHI/WAS Postponed Until TUESDAY
SEA/LAR Postponed Until TUESDAY
Here’s the deal, with the NFL and NFLPA agreeing to new testing/eligibility rules on the fly, coupled with three games having already been moved and more players being added to the COVID List by the minute, creating an accurate assessment of who is actually in and out (unless previously announced) is going to be pretty tricky.
Beware of the inactive report before the start of each of the games too. The league may change it this week, but so far this season, the official inactive list from the teams haven’t included players on the COVID/RESERVE List. So, don’t jump for joy when a player’s name isn’t on the graphic the team account tweets out. Double, then triple check, then maybe check again just to make sure you know exactly who is in and out.
I’ll update the list Sunday morning, then again after 1135am ET, but that’s not going to reflect the official status of any player not on the 1pm ET slate. If you have a Start/Sit decision that’s relatively close, don’t wait, just start the players you know are actually going to be on the field. With the way this week is going, why would you risk a zero?
Carlos Hyde (concussion) OUT
Elijah Mitchell (Head/Knee) OUT
D’Andre Swift (shoulder) OUT
Kareem Hunt (Ankle/COVID LIST) OUT
Phillip Lindsay (COVID LIST) OUT
Jamaal Williams (COVID LIST) OUT
Darrell Henderson (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Myles Gaskin (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Salvon Ahmed (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Michael Carter (ankle) Likely IN
Leonard Fournette (Ankle) Likely IN
Aaron Jones (Knee) Likely IN
James Conner (Foot) Likely IN
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) Likely IN
Tevin Coleman (Concussion) Likely IN
David Johnson (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Javonte Williams (leg) Likely IN
Tony Pollard (Foot) Likely IN
Miles Sanders (Ankle) Likely IN
Jordan Howard (knee) Likely IN
Mark Ingram (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Mike Boone (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Alex Collins (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Alexander Mattison (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Rex Burkhead (Groin) QUESTIONABLE
Adrian Peterson (Back) QUESTIONABLE
Travis Homer (Calf) QUESTIONABLE
JD McKissic (Neck) QUESTIONABLE
Damien Harris (Hamstring) DNP
Gio Bernard (Knee) OUT For Regular Season
Sammy Watkins (COVID LIST) OUT
Jaylen Waddle (COVID LIST) OUT
Allen Robinson (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Emmanuel Sanders (Knee) Likely OUT
Marquise Goodwin (foot) Likely OUT
Breshad Perriman (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Adam Thielen (Ankle) GAME TIME DECISION (Likely OUT tho)
Odell Beckham (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Freddie Swain (ankle) Likely IN
D'Wayne Eskridge (foot) Likely IN
D.J. Moore (Hamstring) Likely IN
Marquise Brown (illness) Likely IN
Terry McLaurin (concussion) Likely IN
DeAndre Hopkins (Knee) OUT FOR SEASON
Anthony Schwartz (concussion) QUESTIONABLE
Jarvis Landry (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Quez Watkins (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Dez Fitzpatrick (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Tyler Lockett (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Kadarius Toney (quad/COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Nelson Agholor (Head) Exited Game
Elijah Moore (Quad) ON IR
Randall Cobb (Core) ON IR
AJ Brown (Chest) ON IR
Antonio Brown (FAKE VAX) OUT til Dec 26
Deonte Harris (DUI) OUT two more Games
Will Fuller (finger) ON IR
Taylor Heinicke (Knee/COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Baker Mayfield (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Lamar Jackson (Ankle) Likely OUT
Daniel Jones (Neck) OUT
Jalen Hurts (Ankle) Likely IN
Josh Allen (Toe) IN
Darren Waller (Knee) OUT
Adam Troutman (Knee) Likely IN
Zach Ertz (hamstring) Likely IN
Foster Moreau (core) Likely IN
David Njoku (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Tyler Higbee (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Brevin Jordan (hand) QUESTIONABLE
Austin Hooper (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Harrison Bryant (ANKLE) QUESTIONABLE
David Njoku (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
T.J. Hockenson (hand) OUT FOR SEASON
Week 15 Player Notes
With the fantasy playoffs upon us, it’s important to be trending in the right direction. Here are some standout recent rankings (PPR per game, Week 9-14), for better or worse:
QB5 – Kirk Cousins (19 PPG)
*He struggled last week, but he finished 4 of his previous 5 games inside the top-10 at the position
QB9 – Patrick Mahomes (17.4 PPG)
*Over the past 8 weeks, he’s finished one week better than QB10
QB11 – Jimmy Garoppolo (16.3 PPG)
*Multiple TD passes in 5 of his past 6 games
QB14 – Lamar Jackson (14.9 PPG)
*Week 9 was the last time he finished a week as a top-10 QB
RB2 – James Conner (25.8 PPG)
*Week 7 was the last time Conner finished outside a week outside the top-20 RBs
RB7 – Javonte Williams (17.8 PPG)
*The Broncos have had a top-10 RB in 6 of their past 7 games (both did it last week)
RB24 – Ezekiel Elliott (13.1 PPG)
*He’s finished outside the top-30 at the position 3 times this season: twice in the past 2 weeks
RB35 – Aaron Jones (10.4 PPG)
*In 5 of his past 6 games, Jones has finished inside the top-10 or outside the top-30 at the position
WR6 – Hunter Renfrow (18.8 PPG)
*He’s been a top-12 WR in 5 of his past 6 games (0 such finishes prior)
WR7 – Jaylen Waddle (18.7 PPG)
*He’s finished inside the top-20 at the position in 6 of his past 8 games
WR18 – Tyreek Hill (14.1 PPG)
*More finishes outside the top-40 WRs than as a top-10 player at the position this season
WR66 – DK Metcalf (6.9 PPG)
*Week 8 was the last time he finished a week better than WR30
TE5 – Pat Freiermuth (11.9 PPG)
*Has been a top-10 TE in 5 of his past 8 games
TE16 – Kyle Pitts (8.3 PPG)
*Since returning from the Week 7 London trip, he’s finished just 2 weeks better than TE15
GOLF IS BACK!!!!!!
The Race for the MAYO CUP is BACK for 2022. And the prize pool is BIGGER this time around. It’s one pick in golf per week for the season, $125 per entry, up to five entries. So there’s $625 in dead money just from me.
If you’re a higher (or lower) roller, there are contests for you as well. This doesn’t start until the second week in January, but based on last year, it may be filled by New Year’s day. so GET IN NOW!!!!!
SPOLIER: There may be private leagues coming as well if you wanna take on your buddies.
Additionally, we always want to make sure Fantasy National is up to snuff for tools and data, and I’m FIRED UP to announce a BRAND NEW feature to the site. If you click on “Distance/Accuracy” on each player profile, you can now see how players shape the ball off the tee! I know this is something people have be looking for for years and now we’ve got it.
Oh, we recorded the season long golf draft show and I’ll be giving away FREE ENTRIES into the One and Done as a part of the MEGA SHOW. And there’s good news. You can watch part one (Picks 1-33)… RIGHT NOW!!!!!!
GALAXY BRAIN: Cardinals Double
How many quarterbacks have a higher ceiling on a week-to-week basis than Kyler Murray? The answer is “not many”. And that number is even smaller than normal this week with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert off the main slate.
How many quarterbacks will have a higher ownership number than Kyler Murray? The answer there, I’m thinking, is “many”. He’s coming off an island game where 0 of his 49 passes resulted in a touchdown … operating now without DeAndre Hopkins … with Chase Edmonds coming back … and priced above every quarterback not named Josh Allen. Not exactly a story that lends itself to a popular play. At all. And that’s when we strike. Let’s walk through this together. Bite sized analysis:
The Lions allow a league-high 16.2 yards per deep pass
*Kyler ranks top-3 in deep CMP%, yards/attempt and TD rate
The Lions create pressure at the 5th lowest rate
*1 of Arizona’s 75 offensive plays last week was a designed run for Kyler
That’s appealing, no? Now, what if I told you that Hopkins (out), AJ Green and Christian Kirk have combined for a 76.8% deep target share in Arizona this season? How would that make you feel?
Kyler has accounted for 19 touchdowns in Arizona’s six double digit point wins this season (something that the current line suggests is happening this week). In those games, he either has 150 yards courtesy the deep ball or has a long touchdown pass. No real advanced calculus. Not going overboard with the math to support a narrative. Simply letting the numbers (with a little game theory) walk me in a direction. Does anything about the above analysis sound crazy? Here’s an example of what you can create around the Arizona stack:
GALAXY BRAIN 2 — Maybe Lamar Plays?
Now, Lamar Jackson is not expected to play at this point. However, is he is somehow active, although you’d have to expect he’s going to be limited, no one is going to use him. What’s the difference between a great leverage play and simply burning your money? I actually have no idea. It all comes out the same color in the end. Spoiler: That color ain’t green.
Still, let’s have some fun with numbers.
There are no shortage of banged up quarterbacks atop the board this week, something that figures to spread ownership thin and I think that applies most to Lamar Jackson (again, assuming he’s active). He’s not exactly playing well (just one game with multiple TD passes over the past 2 months, 0 rushing scores since Week 2) and the other QBs priced $6,500 higher are going to appeal to the masses (Josh Allen off the big week, Kyler Murray coming off of 400+ yards of offense in an island game, Aaron Rodgers with over 1,000 pass yards/10 pass TD in his last 3 games, Matthew Stafford with 3 pass TD in 3 straight, and Dak Prescott against a Giants team he lit up in Week 5). He’s also one of the least appealing stack options when it comes to GPP’s.
Or is he?
In his biggest 4 games this season, he has averaged 34.2 DK PPG. Great. Amazing. At his $7,200 price tag, that would put you in a great spot. In those games, Marquise Brown is averaging 26.4 PPG. And that’s what you want in a stack, right? You want to win BIGGG when you win and trends this year point to “hitting” on a Ravens stack as a print fest. If you miss on the stack, you’re losing anyway, so let’s aim for the big score.
It’s no secret that Hollywood’s best games have come when he is effective at stretching the field. Season long deep passing numbers against the Packers aren’t good, but how about the recent ones?
Weeks 6-10: 7.8 yards per deep pass allowed, 2.4% deep TD rate
Weeks 11-14: 11.6 yards per deep pass allowed, 9.4% TD rate
Green Bay is a road favorite, with Aaron Jones battling a knee injury and flirting with the wrong side of a committee with AJ Dillon even when healthy. All of that said, Dillon is $900 cheaper and makes for a terrific bring back option if you think the Packers lead, forcing the Ravens to get aggressive and thus speed up the game with big pass plays to Hollywood. ORRRRRRRR, you not tie up a RB slot and so with the big play option against this depleted Ravens secondary.
And, you know, it saves another $800. That will help at the end.
That doesn’t feel like a major stretch in terms of stories to tell and by building a GPP lineup around that thought, you can land on something like this (the Jets D/ST gives you nice leverage off of what is likely to be a popular MIA offense, top-10 in sack rate when not blitzing since Week 10 is something).
Then, you can alleviate more salary for another pay up opportunity with the pivot from the UBER CHALK DaVante Parker to Albert Wilson who is expected to take over the Jaylen Waddle spot in the Miami Offense. If you’re THAT concerned with having a WR going against your DST (I’m not), but Gabriel Davis ($3,700), Nico Collins ($3,500) or Laquon Treadwell ($3,300) are other acceptable fliers from the bottom of the WR pricing.
Now, if Lamar can’t go, and you merely swap with Tyler Huntley, you free up $2,000 and can upgrade where ever you want.
Frankly, while it’s fun to galaxy brain this pitiful slate, simply leveraging the optimizer at Run The Sims and letting a computer which simulates the slate 10,000 times may be the better route. And, GOOD NEWS, it’s only $100 for the rest of the NFL season.
WEEK 15 BETS
Me, Pizzola and Cam were back it with your three fav bets for Week 15. Of course, this was before they shifted games to Monday and Tuesday. Still, this is what we;’re rolling with…
It’s hilarious how much the spreads have moved this week.
Week 15 DraftKings Ownership
Now that the main slate is down to nine game, the chalk has consolidated in a few key spots. What I’m saying is, James Robinson may be the highest owned player in GPPs to this point in 2021.