Week 14 WEEKEND UPDATE - Injuries, Top Props, DraftKings Notes
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Week 14 Injuries
RB
Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) — OUT
Jonathan Taylor (Thumb) — Expected OUT
Elijah Mitchell (knee) — Expected OUT
Zach Charbonnet (Knee) — Expected IN
Ken Walker (Oblique) — Expected IN
Aaron Jones (knee) — Questionable
AJ Dillon (groin) — Questionable
Breece Hall (ankle) — Expected IN
Jerick McKinnon — Expected IN
Derrick Henry (Shoulder) — Expected IN
Brian Robinson (Hamstring) — ON BYE
Emari Demercado (Neck) — ON BYE
Rhamondre Stevenson (Ankle) — Missed Week 14
Week 14 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/23W14RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W14WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W14QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W14TEDSTRankings
WR
Christian Watson (Hamstring) — OUT
Rashid Shaheed (Thigh) — OUT
Josh Palmer (Knee) — OUT
Noah Brown (knee) — Expected IN
Amari Cooper (Head/Ribs) — Expected IN
Hollywood Brown (Heel) — On Bye
Michael Wilson — On Bye
Demario Douglas (Head) — Missed Week 14
TE
Dalton Schultz (Hamstring) — OUT
Hayden Hurst (concussion) — OUT
Tyson Hill (Foot/Hand) — OUT
Tyler Higbee (Concussion) — Expected OUT
Darren Waller (Hamstring) — Expected OUT
Taysom Hill (foot, hand) — Questionable
Dawson Knox (Wrist) — Expected IN
Dallas Goedert (Arm) — IN
QB
Derek Carr (Concussion/Shoulder/Back) — WILL START
Trevor Lawrence (ankle) — Expected IN
Geno Smith — Game Time Decision
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) — IN; Started Not Yet Named. Likely to be Flacco.
Kenny Pickett (Ankle) — Missed Week 14
Week 14 Props
LETS GET IT!!!!
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
With D’onta Foreman back on the field, find me something the prop sniper loves more than Khalil Herbert rushing attempt unders. Now, I was extremely dubious at the win%, so I had to go check the math on how RTS has the splits going. They had Herbert firmly in 4th for rushing share behind Fields, Foreman, and Roschon.
That may seem extreme, but it’s how I would have set everything as well, except I would give Foreman the Roschon share. Maybe more. Hence why I love RTS’ customizability. So, I decided to mess around with the inputs a bit to give Herbert a better Sunday.
As you can see, I increased Herbert’s rushing share to 16%, but I also increased the number of plays the Bears run from 55 to 63 and the rushing rate from 50% to 56% just to see what would happen. When I ran the sims, Herbert still doesn’t get to 6 carries (5.7) in a favorable spot. Now, there’s simply the chance Herbert is now fully health and his usage lately has been an aberration and he gets 20 carries and we look foolish, but I’m riding with it.
Reminder to check back to the Sniper Sunday morning when more props have been loaded in the system, and I’ll tweet out a SGP if I get bored.
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Week 14 DRAFTKINGS
The biggest chance since Tambo and I did the show was Pacheco getting ruled out opening up both CEH at 4.2K and Jerick at 4.7K. Fortuneately, we talked through that and provided some late swap commentary and made builds with JSN as a placeholder in the FLEX and $100 left over to prep for CEH being a viable option.
WATCH: NFL DFS WEEK 14 DraftKings Picks
Getting Different 1.0
Double tight end! Rostering 3-5 players from the Chiefs/Bills game isn't going to be an off the radar strategy, but going with both TEs in this game is a way to be a little different. Kincaid is averaging 7.5 targets over his past six games and Kelce has been fine over the past two weeks (10 catches for 172 yards) despite most people being underwhelmed with the Chiefs as a whole.
Rashee Rice and Kelce have combined to see 44.1% of the Chief targets over the past 3 games. That's one way to go.
Getting Different 2.0
Zack Moss: After flopping as uber-chalk, Moss finds himself in a near ideal matchup against the second worst per carry run defense on short rest. Despite the "failure" last week, Moss had every RB carry for the Colts and accounted for nearly 84% of their RB scrimmage yards. While there isn’t traditional “flop leg” maybe he can be 35% owned this week instead of 60%.
Mini Stack
Breece Hall: The Texans rank 6th best in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 7th lowest rate -- that means RB targets without those backs having to pick up a blitzer (Hall: 23 targets over his past 3 games). Rachaad White had 24 touches for 119 yards and 2 TDs against them in Week 9
Noah Brown: Big slot role? He figures to avoid Sauce Gardner more often than not and I have zero faith that Houston can run the ball. The goose egg in his return may lead to limited ownership -- he had a 30+ yard catch in each of the four games prior, I'll take my chances! Of note, there is a chance Brown doesn’t play this week, but signs are still pointing to him being in.
Ravens
Isaiah Likely: 20% target share in Week 12, 0.3 aDOT speaks to their desire to get him the ball in space (LAR: 7th most missed tackles per game)
Odell Beckham: Rams are attacked down field (3rd highest opponent aDOT), OBJ's aDOT is 47% higher than that of Zay Flowers.
D/ST
Chicago Bears (vs DET): The GOOF on the road in a spot where his team might not have balance? I'd pay $3,400 for that profile, but you only have to spend $2,400! The Bears went into the bye in great form (multiple INTs in two straight, multiple sacks in three straight) and their QB contact rate is much more impressive than their pressure rate ... when they get home, they make it count!
— PM