Week 14 Rankings
Last Updated: Thursday Night Pregame
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
WATCH: Week 14 Rankings Breakdown
RB https://bit.ly/w1421RBs
WR https://bit.ly/21W14Wrs
QB https://bit.ly/21W14qbs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W14TEs
Week 14 Injury Report
Last Updated: Thursday Night Pregame
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
Week 14 Bye Weeks: NE, MIA, PHI, IND
Running Back
Tevin Coleman (Concussion) OUT
Joe Mixon (Illness) Likely IN
Alvin Kamara Likely IN
Melvin Gordon (hip) Likely IN
Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) Likely IN
Austin Ekeler (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Tony Pollard (Foot) QUESTIONABLE
David Montgomery (Shoulder/Groin) QUESTIONABLE
JD McKissic (Head) QUESTIONABLE
David Johnson (illness, thigh) QUESTIONABLE
Elijah Mitchell (Head/Knee) Likely OUT
Mark Ingram (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
D’Andre Swift (shoulder) Likely OUT
Damien Harris (Hamstring) Exited Game; On Bye Week
Miles Sanders (Ankle) Exited Game; On Bye
Jordan Howard (knee) on Bye
Michael Carter (ankle) DOUBTFUL FOR WEEK 14
Kenyan Drake (Ankle) OUT FOR SEASON
Phillip Lindsay (ankle) ON BYE
Trey Sermon (Ankle) Placed on IR
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR; QUESTIONABLE
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen (Ankle) Likely OUT 2-4 Weeks
Tee Higgins (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Jarvis Landry (Knee) QUESTIONABLE
Keenan Allen (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Mike Williams (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE
Allen Robinson (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Kadarius Toney (quad) QUESTIONABLE
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Cedrick Wilson (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Deebo Samuel (Groin) QUESTIONABLE
Marquise Goodwin (foot) DOUBTFUL
Kenny Golladay (Ribs) Likely OUT
Randall Cobb (Core) OUT
AJ Brown (Chest) On IR
Antonio Brown (FAKE VAX) OUT til Dec 26
Deonte Harris (DUI) OUT Three Games
Julio Jones (Hamstring) Designated to Return from IR
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT Indefinitely
Corey Davis (Ankle) OUT FOR SEASON
Will Fuller (finger) ON BYE
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (Finger) Likely IN
Tyrod Taylor (Wrist) Davis Mills likely to Start Week 14
Taysom Hill (Finger) QUESTIONABLE
Jalen Hurts (Ankle) Missed Week 13; On BYE
Daniel Jones (Neck) DOUBTFUL; Jacob Fromm likely to Start Week 14
Justin Fields (Ribs) WILL START
Andy Dalton (Hand) Likely OUT
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson (hand) QUESTIONABLE
Logan Thomas (Knee) Placed on IR; OUT FOR SEASON
Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) QUESTIONABLE
Ryan Griffin (Ankle) DOUBTFUL
Darren Waller (Knee) QUESTIONABLE
Eric Ebron (Knee) DOUBTFUL
Lookahead Week 15-17 D/ST Streams
49ers (vs ATL/at TEN/vs HOU)
Dolphins (vs NYJ/at NO/at TEN)
Jaguars (vs HOU/at NYJ/
at NE)Titans (at PIT/vs SF/vs MIA)
Seahawks (
at LAR/vs CHI/vs DET)Saints at (
TB/vs MIA/vs CAR)
UFC 269
Only Two UFC Cards remaining in 2021. And this is the big one…
WATCH: UFC 269 Bets, Picks & DraftKings Plays
Here was tip Paul gave me before the show.
I can confirm he went MUCH harder at this than I did. Turn on notifications Saturday morning to get in on Cody’s PRP btw.
Gambling Notes – Week 14
Home favorites when the total is 50+: 9-21 ATS
- Tampa Bay and Arizona are in that spot this week
Games with a total of 45 or less and a spread under 7 points: unders have hit 62% of the time
- Steelers/Vikings
- Saints/Jets
- Browns/Ravens
- Falcons/Panthers
AFC Teams with extended rest have seen unders hit 65.6% of the time
- Browns/Ravens
- Titans/Jags
Top 5 teams overachieving teams since Week 7 (production vs Vegas expectations)
Patriots: 18.8 PPG ahead of Vegas implied result
Colts: 8.6
Dolphins: 8.0
Eagles: 6.7
Giants: 6.5
5 most underachieving teams since Week 7
Ravens: -9.1
Rams: -7.5
Falcons: -6.7
JUMBO Jets: -6.1
Raiders: -5.8
GALAXY BRAIN: SAQUON BARKLEY ($6,000 at Chargers)
Sometimes, to beat the field, you have to BE the field first. So here we go:
Over the past 3 weeks, 15 different teams have scored at least 33 points in a game
The Giants are not only not one of those teams, they don’t have 33 TOTAL points over that stretch
Barkley’s last game with 60 rushing yards was in 2019
Javonte Williams gets the Lions ($100 cheaper)
A rested Chuba Hubbard ($100 cheaper) has a better matchup per DK’s OPRK than Barkley
Neither Titan RB is more than $5,300 and they host the Jags
All of those things are 100% true. Cold hard facts. Not here to debate them, just here to highlight how easy it is to make the case for not clicking on Saquon Barkley’s name this week. Yes, he’s a big name, but he hasn’t helped anyone since returning and this offense as a whole appears as broken as there is. Buy. The. Dip.
Barkley has been on the field for over 80% of Giant offensive snaps over the past 2 weeks and faces a bottom-5 defense against running backs in basically any measure you want to take a look at (rush yards, yards per carry, rush TD rate, yadda yadda yadda). So that’s good. So is 20 targets in those 3 games. So is the occasional vintage run that we’ve seen from him over the past 2 weeks (23-yard last week in Miami and a 32-yarder the week before against Philadelphia). Nobody is suggesting that Barkley is the perfect running back or that this offense is one to get excited about investing in. Obviously. But look at Barkley’s past 4 fully healthy games. I’m not talking his limited usage in his Week 11 return or the game he got hurt in. We are looking at 20 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. Running backs this season that have gotten at least 15 opportunities against the FeinBolts this season are averaging 17.4 DK PPG. That AVERAGE number wouldn’t sink you at Barkley’s 6k price tag and given that I project MORE opportunities for a back I view as MORE talented than most in a game that probably stays close because … well, Chargers … I’m having a hard time passing on Barkley in what lines up to be a very unpopular spot.
What could the GPP lineup look like with Saquon locked in? And how much money will he cost me this week?
Week 14 Spread Picks
REMINDER: Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks to get a deposit match up to $100. DO IT!!!!!
WATCH: Week 14 Spread Picks
Remember to Sub to the Newsletter so you can always get the Spread Picks show a day in advance!
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
ALERT: Dalvin Cook is apparently trending towards playing tonight. It’s only 11 days after separating his shoulder, so if he is active, this could be a Darrell Henderson/Boston Scott “active'“ but doesn’t see the field situation. I’ve bumped down Alexander Mattison, slightly, in the Week 14 rankings, but he’s still the MIN RB I’m rollin with and expect at least a 75/25 split unless there is more revealing information released later today. UPDATE: Looks like Cook is a go. I’ve seen the stats on the last time this exact situation popped up with Cook and he went absolutely mental and won people a week, I just can’t do it with the lack of floor. It’s such a quick turnaround that the risk of in-game reinjury is gigantic along with him just being ineffective. I could be wrong, but I’ll keep Mattison in over Cook. For reference, I have Mattison at RB15 for the week with Cook at RB41.
FRIDAY UPDATE: This was an all time awful take.
READ: WEEK 14 RB RANKINGS
Here’s the full breakdown for props and DraftKings Showdown. In terms of skill players, this is one of the most fun Thursday
WATCH: TNF DraftKings Picks & Props
REMINDER: Get up to a $100 deposit match at Prize Picks using code "MMN" at sign up.
After fiddling with the score and making my own player customizations, here are the three lineups that turned out to be most optimal after simulating the slate 10,000 times.
You can always make your own adjustments to pace, score, market share, etc at Run The Sims.
btw, RTS has been discounted for the rest of the season (through Super Bowl), only $100, but you get another 10% off when you use this link ⬇️⬇️⬇️
TOOLS: Run The Sims Optimizer, Projections & Simulations
— PM