Week 14 Picks, Props, Trends, Injuries, Cheatsheets
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Week 14 Injuries
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson (Ankle) — OUT FOR TNF
Najee Harris (knee) — GAME TIME DECISION FOR TNF
Jonathan Taylor (Thumb) — Expected OUT
Breece Hall (ankle) — Questionable
Zach Charbonnet (Knee) — Questionable
Ken Walker (Oblique) — Questionable
Aaron Jones (knee) — Questionable
Jerick McKinnon — Questionable
Elijah Mitchell (knee) — Questionable
Derrick Henry (Shoulder) — Expected IN
D’Onta Foreman (ankle) — Expected IN
Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) — Expected IN
Brian Robinson (Hamstring) — ON BYE
Emari Demercado (Neck) — ON BYE
Week 14 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/23W14RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W14WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W14QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W14TEDSTRankings
WR
Demario Douglas (Head) — OUT FOR TNF
Justin Jefferson (Knee) — IN
Mack Hollins (ankle) — IN
Puka Nacua (shoulder) — Expected IN
Christian Watson (Hamstring) — Expected OUT
Amari Cooper (Head/Ribs) — Expected OUT
Rashid Shaheed (Thigh) — Questionable
Josh Palmer (Knee) — Questionable
Hollywood Brown (Heel) — On Bye
Michael Wilson — On Bye
Mecole Hardman — Placed on IR
Christian Kirk (core) — OUT 6-8 Weeks
Tank Dell (Ankle) — OUT FOR SEASON
TE
Tyler Higbee (Concussion) — Expected OUT
Hayden Hurst (concussion) — Expected OUT
Darren Waller (Hamstring) — Expected OUT
Taysom Hill (foot, hand) — Questionable
Dalton Schultz (Hamstring) — Questionable
Dawson Knox (Wrist) — Expected IN
Dallas Goedert (Arm) — Expected IN
QB
Kenny Pickett (Ankle) — OUT
Trevor Lawrence (ankle) — Expected OUT
Derek Carr (Concussion/Shoulder/Back) — Expected OUT
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) — Expected OUT
TNF PROPS — NE/PIT
Despite sniffing the over when MNF went to OT, Tee Higgins bailed got the Run The Sims Prop Sniper back on track after DK metcalf laughed in the face of his unders on TNF. In fact, 4 of the 5 top rated plays from the Sniper hit on MNF — Great for the, sensible, individual bettor; SAD for my SGP.
Although unders across the board for everything is probably the move, it’s difficult to put together much in terms of props because of the questionable. Najee, Parker, and JuJu will probably all go, but you don’t want to lock yourself into any Jaylen Warren props without knowing that status. Fortunately, there is a top rated play you can lock in now, the Najee under rushing yards.
Either he plays banged up against a formidable rush demesne, likely on the back end of a split due to his knee or he simple doesn’t play and you get refunded. There’s always the out of playing a few snaps and exiting the game because the knee isn’t holding up. You’ll be the opposite of the “begging for refunds” people. Some books have already taken down Najee props while others have them lingering. Hopefully you can find them.
For a Same Game Parlay, I’ll likely tweet one out later Thursday night on X (gonna give it to ya).
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Week 14 Cheatsheet
Missed the shows? I got you covered on the picks. Although, I’m fairly certain no one is watching the shows for those…
Week 14 Betting Trends (For non-serious purposes only)
Unders are 8-3 since the beginning of last season when the Steelers are favorted (fourth highest hit rate).
The Bucs are 0-4 outright since the beginning of last season when getting a field goal or less.
At 4-7-3 ATS, the Bears are the fifth worst home team against the spread since the beginning of last season.
At 8-4, the Colts are the second best ATS team this season and, since the beginning of last season, overs are 5-2 when they play a bottom 10 run defense (also second best over that stretch). After just three of their first seven games were decided by a single possession, the Bengals have seen four of their past five finish that way.
The Jags are just 2-4 outright following an outright loss as a favorite (they were upset by the Bengals on Monday night to conclude Week 13).
Since 2021, the Panthers are the worst ATS road team (8-15-1). The Panthers swept this series last season, but the Saints won in Week 2 this season and won nine of the 11 meetings prior to the weird 2022 results. During that 9-2 run, their average win came by 12.3 points.
Unders are 8-1 since the beginning of last season when the Texans play a bottom 10 passing offense -- the Jets qualify as such in any metric you look at. Since the beginning of last season, 20 of 29 Jet games have gone under the number, tied for the highest rate in the league (18 of 29 Texans games have gone under).
Under tickets have come through in 10 of Baltimore's past 14 home games.
The Raiders are the fifth best ATS home team since the beginning of last season at 9-5.
The Seahawks have failed to cover five of their past seven games against top 10 run offenses.
Unders are 10-3 when the Bills play on the road since the beginning of last season. When this game kicks off, 804 days will have passed since the last time the Chiefs lost consecutive games outright.
The Chargers are 8-4 ATS following an outright win since the beginning of last season. They enter Week 14 coming off a thrilling 6-0 victory over the Patriots.
Since 2021, overs are 15-9 when the Cowboys play at home, easily the highest of the teams hosting games in Week 14.
Unders are 9-4 in Miami home games since the beginning of last season.
Unders are a league-best 16-4-2 in Giant home games since the beginning of 2021.
— PM