Week 14 Injury Report, Updated Ranks, DK Own

Props and Tools

Dec 11, 2021

WATCH: Week 14 Props Breakdown

TAKE ADVANTAGE of the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. ANDa bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. It’s the perfect bankroll builder, and you get to compete against Mayo, Fienberg, Cust and the crew.

PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”

Here’s this week’s TWO-PACK on the Prize Picks Fantasy Props…

Fields crushed this number in four straight starts, and was well on his way against the Ravens (4-23) before getting injured. They depressed the price on his return so let’s get that over. For reference, at DraftKings Sportsbook, it’s already 4 yards higher (33.5).

Then we have Uncle Leo and his receiving yards. He’s been under this number just once in his past four games, and in that contest at IND, he still had seven receptions. Pretty unlucky not to hit the over in that one. But them the breaks. It’s clear, especially since Antonio Brown has been OUT, Fournette is a main cog in the Bucs passing game, an offense which passes the most in football. The volume will be there, and against the Bills formidable pass rush, we could see an uptick of RB targets to alleviate the pressure.

Week 14 Rankings

Last Updated: Sunday Inactives

WATCH: Week 14 Weekend Injury/Ranks Spin

RB https://bit.ly/w1421RBs
WR https://bit.ly/21W14Wrs
QB https://bit.ly/21W14qbs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W14TEs

Week 14 Injury Report

Last Updated: Sunday Inactives

Week 14 Bye Weeks: NE, MIA, PHI, IND

Running Back

Tevin Coleman (Concussion) OUT
Adrian Peterson (Back) OUT
Travis Homer (Calf) OUT
David Johnson (thigh) OUT
Darrell Henderson (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Jamaal Williams (COVID LIST) OUT
Elijah Mitchell (Head/Knee) OUT
Mark Ingram (COVID LIST) OUT
D’Andre Swift (shoulder) OUT
Mike Boone (COVID LIST) OUT
JD McKissic (Head) OUT
Tony Pollard (Foot) OUT
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ARZ Will wait til Monday to Decide Status
Melvin Gordon (hip) Likely IN
David Montgomery (Shoulder/Groin) IN
Joe Mixon (Illness) Likely IN
Damien Harris (Hamstring) Exited Game; On Bye Week
Miles Sanders (Ankle) Exited Game; On Bye
Jordan Howard (knee) on Bye
Michael Carter (ankle) OUT FOR WEEK 14
Kenyan Drake (Ankle) OUT FOR SEASON
Phillip Lindsay (ankle) ON BYE
Myles Gaskin (COVID LIST) On Bye
Salvon Ahmed (COVID LIST) On Bye

Wide Receiver

Elijah Moore (Quad) Placed on IR; OUT
Adam Thielen (Ankle) Likely OUT 2-4 Weeks
Keenan Allen (COVID LIST) OUT
Kadarius Toney (quad) OUT
Marquise Goodwin (foot) Likely OUT
Deebo Samuel (Groin) Likely IN
Tee Higgins (Ankle) Likely IN
Mike Williams (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) Likely IN
Kenny Golladay (Ribs) Likely IN
Julio Jones (Hamstring) IN
Allen Robinson (hamstring) IN
Brandon Cooks (Back) QUESTIONABLE
Cedrick Wilson (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Randall Cobb (Core) Placed on IR
AJ Brown (Chest) On IR
Antonio Brown (FAKE VAX) OUT til Dec 26
Deonte Harris (DUI) OUT Three Games
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT Indefinitely
Corey Davis (Ankle) OUT FOR SEASON
Will Fuller (finger) ON BYE

Quarterback

Mike Glennon Likely To Start
Tyrod Taylor (Wrist) Davis Mills to Start Week 14
Taysom Hill (Finger) Will Start
Justin Fields (Ribs) WILL START
Andy Dalton (Hand) Likely OUT
Jalen Hurts (Ankle) Missed Week 13; On BYE

Tight End

Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) IN
Harrison Bryant (ANKLE) OUT
David Njoku (COVID LIST) OUT
T.J. Hockenson (hand) Likely OUT
Logan Thomas (Knee) Placed on IR; OUT FOR SEASON
Darren Waller (Knee) OUT
Ryan Griffin (Ankle) DOUBTFUL
Eric Ebron (Knee) Missed Week 14

Lookahead Week 15-17 D/ST Streams

49ers (vs ATL/at TEN/vs HOU)
Dolphins (vs NYJ/at NO/at TEN)
Jaguars (vs HOU/at NYJ/~~at NE~~)
Titans (at PIT/vs SF/vs MIA)
Seahawks (~~at LAR~~/vs CHI/vs DET)
Saints at (TB/vs MIA/vs CAR)

GALAXAY BRAIN: C.J. Uzomah ($3,000) vs SF

Locking in a TE priced outside the top-20 frees you up for plenty, but make no mistake about it. This is not a punt play for the sake of a punt play … it’s one I’m actually a fan of.

Location location location. Joe Burrow is among the best in the NFL when throwing his left. Be it a scheme thing, something to do with the roster construction or just blind happenstance … the man is top-5 in CMP%, yards per attempt, touchdown rate and fantasy points per pass when throwing to left. At the very least, that’s interesting. But this is a week where “interesting” could quickly turn into “profitable”. This season, the Niners are allowing the 8th highest passer rating, 4th highest CMP% and 3rd highest TD rate when the opposition throws left. Now that is something. It’s an identified weakness. How do I know? When teams throw to the right against San Fran: 5th lowest TD rate and in the middle third of the league in the stats I mentioned previously.

But what would overthinking be without taking it that next step? Uzomah has caught 12 of 13 left-side targets for 194 yards and 4 scores this season. Not crazy volume, but that level of efficiency? At this price tag? In this spot? Uzomah ran a route on over 85% of Burrow drop backs last week and if he’s anywhere near that rate on Sunday … smash spot!

Take: QB production when pressured is NOT sticky

Top 5 in fantasy points per pressured attempt this season:

Tom Brady (1st)
Kyler Murray (2nd)
Josh Allen (3rd)
Matthew Stafford (4th)
Jimmy Garoppolo (5th)

How those QBs ranked in that same stat last season:

Tom Brady (36th)
Kyler Murray (14th)
Josh Allen (12th)
Matthew Stafford (8th)
Jimmy Garoppolo (31st)

Spin: Defenses that create pressure are valuable, no matter the opponent. Here are the pressure ranks for the Week 14 D/ST’s priced $2,500 or cheaper over the past 3 weeks …

Football Team (7th) vs DAL
Jets (12th) vs NO
Texans (20th) vs SEA
Giants (28th) at LAC
Lions (29th) at DEN
Jaguars (32nd) at TEN

Take: Air yards per game is a stat to track, as it folds in both volume and depth of target

Spin: Here are the five worst defenses (yards/attempt) against the deep pass on the main slate and the opponent’s top (healthy) WR in terms of air yardage per game

Lions – Courtland Sutton ($5,300)
Texans – Tyler Lockett ($6,700)
Footballs – CeeDee Lamb ($7,200)
Jaguars – Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4,500)
Cowboys – Terry McLaurin ($7,000)

Now, NWI may see a big time downtick in air yards with Julio Jones expected to return,. but let’s roll with it.

What do those lists mean for Week 14? Who knows, but you ow have information that most of your opponents won’t, so that’s a start. If you wanted to build a lineup around these thoughts …

WEEK 14 BETS

It was a messy show Friday with the gang, but an absolute MUST WATCH

WATCH: Week 14 Best Bets

Never this season (or ever, really) have Cam, Rob and I been so aligned on picks. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or bad thing.

Of course, we went through every game and made picks earlier in the week. In full disclosure, a lot has changed since then. The one benefit to being us on the spread picks show, no one’s actually watching for the picks, so I suppose it really doesn’t matter. It was a fun one.

WATCH: Week 14 Spread Picks

Remember to Sub to the Newsletter so you can always get the Spread Picks show a day in advance!

Week 14 DraftKings

This is the week to take advantage of the Run The Sims custom optimizer is you’re going hard on DFS. ON a slate with so many injuries and players with unknown status, let the computer do the work for you. And there’s GOOD NEWS, the entire site has been discounted to $100 for the rest of the season. So through the Super Bowl. And code MAYO gets you another 10% off. Time to test it out.

TOOLS: RUN THE SIMS OPTIMIZER, PROJECTIONS, SIMULATIONS

Here’s the sad state of affairs for my optimals after I made my custom adjustments on RTS

HEY, some say the worse you feel about a lineup the better it is. That’s probably not true, but it makes me feel better regardless.

DraftKings Chalk Report

It’s tough to truly get a good grasp on the highest owned RBs this week because so much information came out Friday/Saturday that it’s difficult to gauge how popular come of the cheaper options are going to be at the position. For example, with no Coleman or Carter, how popular is $4,400 Ty Johnson going to be? I actually have no clue. You can make the case he’s the best of the cheap RBs, but does anyone actually want to play him in a tough matchup vs NO, or will they opt in to cheaper, riskier options like Jermar Jefferson, JaMycal Hasty, Godwin Igwebuike, or Jeff Wilson? I’d play Johnson, but I know that won’t be a consensus selection.

So, here’s what I got.

Josh Jacobs
Austin Ekeler
Alvin Kamara
Antonio Gibson

Tyreek Hill
Hunter Renfrow
Mike Williams
Stefon Diggs

Taysom Hill
Josh Allen
Tom Brady

Travis Kelce
Rob Gronkowski

DST

Saints
Panthers
Seahawks

Good Luck

— PM

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