Week 13 RANKINGS
Last Updated: THURS Pregame
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
WATCH: Week 13 Rankings Debate
RB https://bit.ly/21W13Rbs
WR https://bit.ly/21W13WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W13QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W13TEDST
Week 13 INJURY REPORT
Last Updated: Friday Morning
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
Running Back
D’Andre Swift (shoulder) OUT
Jordan Howard (knee) OUT
Alvin Kamara Missed Week 13
Adrian Peterson SIGNED BY SEAHAWKS
Darrell Henderson (Quad) QUESTIONABLE
JD McKissic (Head) Likely OUT
Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) OUT Multiple Weeks
Boston Scott (Illness) QUESTIONABLE
Trey Sermon (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Miles Sanders (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Travis Homer (Calf) QUESTIONABLE
Rashaad Penny (Hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) Missed Week 12; On Bye
Michael Carter (ankle) OUT 1-2 Weeks
JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown (FAKE VAX) Out til Dec 26
Keelan Cole (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Odell Beckham (Hip) QUESTIONABLE
Cedrick Wilson (Ankle) Missed Week 13
Deebo Samuel (Groin) OUT 1-2 Weeks
Randall Cobb (Groin) Likely IN
AJ Brown (Chest) OUT; Placed on IR
Kadarius Toney (quad) Likely OUT
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) Likely OUT
Anthony Schwartz (concussion) Likely IN
Calvin Ridley (personal) Likely OUT
Will Fuller (finger) QUESTIONABLE
Corey Davis (Groin) QUESTIONABLE
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) Likely IN
Allen Robinson (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Quarterback
Taysom Hill (Finger) Week-to-Week
Jalen Hurts (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Daniel Jones (Neck) QUESTIONABLE
Kyler Murray (ankle) Likely IN
Justin Fields (Ribs) QUESTIONABLE
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth (Concussion) QUESTIONABLE
Darren Waller (Knee) Likely OUT
Dan Arnold (Knee) OUT 4-6 Weeks
Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) Missed Week 12
Eric Ebron (Knee) Likely OUT
Kyle Rudolph (Ankle) Missed Week 12
Week 15-17 D/ST Streams
49ers (vs ATL/at TEN/vs HOU)
Dolphins (vs NYJ/at NO/at TEN)
Jaguars (vs HOU/at NYJ/
at NE)Titans (at PIT/vs SF/vs MIA)
Seahawks (
at LAR/vs CHI/vs DET)Saints at (
TB/vs MIA/vs CAR)
Week 13 FUN WITH AIR YARDS!!!!
Fun with Air Yards (past 2 weeks, WR must have 150 air yards to qualify)
- Among qualifiers, receiving yardage was 74.6% of air yards. Makes sense. Deep balls that fall incomplete, but also short passes with big runs after the catch
Outliers over the past two weeks:
§ 3 qualified receivers cashed in under 40% of their air yards
· Jalen Reagor: 16.3% (30 yards, 184 air yards)
· DK Metcalf: 21.6% (44 yards, 204 air yards)
· Josh Reynolds: 39.8% (70 yards, 176 air yards)
§ 2 qualified receivers cashed in over 140% of their air yards
· Davante Adams: 143.1% (219 yards, 153 air yards)
· Hunter Renfrow: 142.6% (164 yards, 115 air yards)
§ 3 qualified receivers have over 200 air yards BUT 0 touchdowns
· Chase Claypool (269 air yards)
· Michael Gallup (222)
· DK Metcalf (204)
§ Top 5 catch rates
· Hunter Renfrow (92.3%)
· Jaylen Waddle (89.5%)
· Davante Adams (83.3%)
· Tyler Lockett (77.8%)
· Brandon Aiyuk (76.9%)
§ Bottom 5 catch rates
· Jalen Reagor (30%)
· Van Jefferson (33.3%)
· Josh Reynolds (37.5%)
· Michael Pittman (40%)
· Marquise Goodwin (40%)
GALAXY BRAIN: Eli Mitchell ($6,000 at SEA)
Mitchell isn’t a secret, but I’d be surprised if his ownership this weekend at all reflects his potential. First, the game theory (I’ll get to the stats in a minute, but this matters too). At $6,000, Mitchell is priced $300 below a fully involved Saquon Barkley (86.2% of the snaps last week) and $300 ahead of a productive Antonio Gibson coming off of a strong showing in an Island game. When you factor in people chasing Leonard Fournette’s four-score week, wanting to play Alexander Mattison in a great spot and Mitchell being the most expensive of the three primary skill San Fran guys that figure to get extra work with Deebo Samuel sidelined … big time leverage potential.
Anyone can leverage a bad player: so why is this a potential smash spot?
During Kyle Shanahan’s tenure with the Niners, running backs average over 17 DK PPG when getting at least 18 carries, a number that Mitchell has improved this season (20.6). You don’t have to clear many mental hurdles to get Mitchell there as a 3+ point road favorite and that expectation alone would nearly pay off his Week 13 price tag. But wait, there’s more.
During the Shanahan era, SF RBs average the 3rd most yards per carry on perimeter runs, a significant improvement over their ranking on all other runs over that time (14th). Oddly specific? Maybe, but you have to sell a narrative to build a lineup and a stat like that makes me think the offense is built around blocking such plays. Those runs should be uber-productive in this spot … the Seahawks are the 12th worst defense on such carries (3rd best on all other carries). The floor is nice for this price tag and with enough perimeter work in this favorable spot, there’s slate breaking potential here. Don’t forget, 49ers not named Deebo Samuel (injured) or Mitchell on the ground last week vs MIN: 6 carries for 9 yards. One way to build around Mitchell:
Paying Up; Dolphins D/ST
- Over the past 4 weeks when NOT blitzed, NYG allows pressure at the 2nd highest rate. When not blitzing over that stretch, the Dolphins create pressure at a higher rate than any other defense on this main slate
Vikings Double Stack (go back to last week’s newsletter … stubborn or stupid, you decide)
Week 13 Spread Picks
WATCH: Week 13 Spread Picks
Remember to Sub to the Newsletter so you can always get the Spread Picks show a day in advance!
You can still get into the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. Take advantage of the bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. It’s the perfect bankroll builder, and you get to compete against Mayo, Fienberg, Cust and the crew.
PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”
For TNF Here’s where I’m going…
It’s looking like Kamara is going to be OUT for the game but Ingram will be a GO in the Saints backfield. Despite getting run all over against the Eagles, the Saints still possess the No. 2 rated run defense per PPF, hence the Pollard OVER receiving yards instead of the rushing total.
PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”
In four games as a starter in 2020, Hill beat this number three times, and the only under was by a half yard. LETS GO!!!!!!
— PM