Week 13 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, DK Notes

+ Secret Spread Show Link

Mayo Media

Nov 30, 2022

DIRECT LINK: Week 13 PME DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

Week 13 Spread Picks + Cust Corner

Week 13 Rankings

WATCH: WEEK 13 Rankings Debate

TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W13TEDST

Week 13 Injury Cheatsheet

Micheal Carter (Ankle) — Likely OUT

Elijah Mitchell (Knee) — OUT 6-8 Weeks

Josh Jacobs (calf) — Likely IN

Najee Harris (Abs) — IN

Travis Etienne (foot) — Likely IN

Christian McCaffrey (Knee) — IN

Leonard Fournette (hip) — Likely IN

Jaylen Warren (Hamstring) — Questionable

Antonio Gibson (foot) — Questionable

Joe Mixon (Concussion) — Questionable

Damien Harris (thigh) — DNP

Mike Williams (Ankle) — OUT

Brandin Cooks (Calf) — OUT

Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — OUT

KJ Hamler (Hamstring) — OUT

Jameison Williams (Knee) — Likely OUT

Darnell Mooney (Ankle) — OUT FOR SEASON

Ja'Marr Chase (hip) — Likely IN

Russell Gage (hamstring) — Questionable

Jerry Jeudy (ankle) — Questionable

Courtland Sutton (illness) — Questionable

Romeo Doubs (Ankle) — Questionable

David Njoku (knee) — OUT

Juwan Johnson (ankle) — Likely OUT

Jelani Woods (shoulder/quad) — Likely IN

Daniel Bellinger (eye) — Questionable

Matt Stafford (Concussion) — OUT; John Wolford Will Start

GALAXY BRAIN: Expensive WRs

DIRECT LINK: Week 13 PME DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

Josh Jacobs is coming off of a historic game and now gets the most vulnerable run defense over the year-plus. Nick Chubb is at ZERO risk of seeing any script limitations in Houston this week. We’ve seen some teams (namely Washington) have success against Philly when pounding the rock and keeping Jalen Hurts off the field … seems like a good spot for Derrick Henry. All of that sound good, right?

Yea. Too easy. It takes just a general feel of what is going in the NFL to land on one (if not two) of those three. And that doesn’t include Austin Ekeler in a great spot against Vegas and Christian McCaffrey without his backup in a potential shootout. My point … people are going to pay up at the running back position. I’m not saying it’s wrong, but there’s a world in which it fails, a run out that would likely catapult anyone who spent up on receivers way up the standings.

From aDOT to per route efficiency, Tee Higgins’ numbers hardly flinch with/without Ja’Marr Chase on the field since the two joined forces … but I do expect people to hesitate in paying a WR8 price tag for him should Chase return. An elite receiver in a game with a total north of 50 and low ownership? Sign me up. Looking to pivot from Josh Jacobs? Why not a lower owned Davante Adams against a Bolts defense that he already torched for a 10-141-1 stat line in the season opener? To be clear, it’s not that I think Higgins or Adams will be sneaky plays, but by plugging them both in, you set yourself up for a unique build while keeping slate breaking upside.

And the lineup can come together in short order. Chuck in a cheap defense (Bears, Jags, Steelers, etc) with a cheap tight end (Logan Thomas, Evan Engram, etc) and you’re in business. In a build like that, you can stack Higgins with Burrow and bring it back with a cheap KC receiver. You’ll have to run hot a running back (Dameon Pierce bounce back at lower ownership?), but this sort of build at least deserves your attention while you begin piecing together what you want to do for the Week 13 main slate.

Week 13 DraftKings

At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across the main slate. Once again, the optimals love the expensive Chargers and cheap Jags, but we need to get more injury info before trusting ETN, CMC, and Najee, obviously.