Week 13 Picks, Props, Trends, Injuries, Cheatsheets
RAKE FREE DRAFTKINGS LISTENERS LEAGUE: https://bit.ly/23W13DKLLPME
WATCH: Week 13 Spread Picks + Cust Corner: Eating in Cars
WATCH: Week 13 Best Bets + Teaser
Week 13 Injuries
RB
Jonathan Taylor (Thumb) — OUT
Aaron Jones (knee) — Expected OUT
Ken Walker (Oblique) — Expected OUT
De’Von Achane (knee) — Questionable
Jerick McKinnon — Questionable
D’Onta Foreman (ankle) — On Bye
Week 13 Rankings Lists
RB https://bit.ly/23W13RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W13WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W13QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W13TEDSTRanks
WR
Jerry Jeudy (Groin) — Questionable
Chris Olave (Concussion) — Questionable
Rashid Shaheed (Thigh) — Questionable
Amari Cooper (Ribs) — Questionable
Demario Douglas (Head) — Questionable
Tee Higgins (Hamstring) — Questionable
Noah Brown (knee) — Questionable
Treylon Burks (Concussion) — Questionable
Michael Wilson — Questionable
Kadarius Toney — Expected IN
Justin Jefferson (Knee) — Will Play Week 14
Mecole Hardman — Placed on IR
TE
Trey McBride (groin) — Questionable
Dalton Schultz (Hamstring) — Questionable
Dallas Goedert (Arm) — Questionable
Hayden Hurst (concussion) — Questionable
QB
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) — Expected OUT
TNF Props
It’s always terrifying going on the other side of a popular bet. But the sims have been hot, so I’ll just continue rolling with them. It’s more palatable when you’re getting plus money on it.
This is a similar spot to Ty Chandler on Monday night. The over receptions got hammered, but the sims kept spitting out the under as a top play. Most of the time it’s better to trust the numbers than your instincts on these things.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
For example, I think Seattle may win this game outright. But I’m going to lean on the sims for a SGP that just has a bunch of unders. It’s an anti-fun sweat.
GOLF BETS
The Hero World Challenge starts Thursday. Tiger is playing. So that’s exciting. As long as it doesn’t get injury sad. Speaking of injuries, I bet two guys with back injuries.
Kawa 8/1
Will Z 33/1
Cheatsheets
Pat Mayo, Geoff Fienberg and Tim Anderson go game-by-game and make their 2023 Week 13 Picks, Bets and Props. Plus, a mini Cust Corner on Eating in Cars
WATCH: Week 13 Spread Picks + Cust Corner: Eating in Cars
Pat Mayo, Rob Pizzola, and Cam Stewart give their 2023 NFL Week 13 Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.
WATCH: Week 13 Best Bets + Teaser
Week 13 Trends
Unders are 9-15-1 in the past 25 games that have featured the Seahawks as an underdog. Since the beginning of last season, overs are 12-5 following a Cowboys win (70.6%, fourth highest).
The Colts are the third worst ATS team in divisional games since the beginning of 2021 (5-11).
The Chargers have covered six of their past seven games against bottom 10 offenses. Since 2021, the Patriots are 1-7 outright (2-6 ATS) when getting points at home.
Since 2021, the Lions are the best ATS team in the league (30-15) while only the Bears and Panthers have been worse than the Saints (18-26-1).
The Falcons have covered just three of 12 games when favored since the beginning of last season. Unders are 10-4 since the beginning of last season when the Jets play at home (second highest rate).
The Steelers have covered seven of 10 games when favored since the beginning of last season.
Washington is among the league leaders in pass rate over expectation and Miami has seen six of their past nine games against top 10 passing offenses go under the projected total. Unders are 10-3 since the start of 2021 when the Commanders are a home underdog (76.9%, fifth highest).
Unders are 9-5 since the beginning of last season when Houston plays at home.
The Panthers are the worst ATS team since the beginning of last season when coming off of a loss (9-19-2).
Overs are 8-5 when Cleveland plays on the road since the beginning of last season (third highest hit rate). Overs are 5-3 since the beginning of last season when the Rams play a top 10 defense.
Overs are 13-7 following an Eagles win since the beginning of last season.
The Chiefs are just 7-11 ATS following a win since the start of 2022. Overs are 8-3 following Green Bay's past 11 wins.
Both the Jags and Bengals are top 10 teams since the beginning of 2021 in under hit rate (JAX: 59.6%, CIN: 60%). Unders are 5-2 since the beginning of last season when the Bengals are getting points.
— PM