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Week 13 Injury Report, Updated Ranks, DK Own
+ Props and Cheatsheets
You can still get into the MMN props contest by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the contest. Take advantage of the bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. It’s the perfect bankroll builder, and you get to compete against Mayo, Fienberg, Cust and the crew.
Here’s this week’s TWO-PACK on the Prize Picks Fantasy Props…
Week 13 Props
I don’t see any standard player props released yet for this player, and we may not get any tbh, but Pharoh Cooper is one to be on the look out for if his receiving yards number pops up. with Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney both OUT against the Dolphins, Cooper will man the slot for the Giants, which we know, is the best way to attach Miami, especially as big underdogs. Cooper’s role isn’t huge, obviously, but he played 58% of the Giants snaps a week ago against the Eagles; the majority coming in the slot. It only amounted to one catch for six yards on two targets, but in an expected pass happier situation this week, something like 2-16 on four or five targets isn’t outrageous. I’m guessing if a number becomes available anywhere it will something like o/u 5.5 receiving yards. Which I’d gladly take the over. And probably lose.
As an extreme flier on DK, Cooper’s only $3,000. Look, he’s likely not worth it, but I do think the Giants will try to get him involved in space a few times be it on a screen or reverse. Cooper is a pure speedster, so while Zero DraftKings points is probably the likeliest scenario, if he can break one, it’s going to be a long one. For the 150 lineup crowd only. Or as a part of a Mike Glennon skinny stack so you can afford every expensive player on the board.
If Cooper is a bridge too far, may I interest you the Koko-B-Ware of the NFL: Damiere Byrd.
Marquise Goodwin is already OUT and Allen Robinson’s hamstring has declared retirement, at least for this season, leaving Byrd, Jakeem Grant and Ann’s son (husband?) Ian Coulter as the available options opposite Darnell Mooney.
After Goodwin’s departure on Thanksgiving, it was Byrd who saw the field the most, playing 76% of the snaps and finishing 4-42 on 5 targets. We’re getting Andy Dalton again, just like on Thanksgiving, and this time they’re 7.5 point underdogs in a far more favorable passing game-script against the Cards.
Bryd shockingly does have props available at DK Sportsbook, and unsurprisingly, I enjoy the overs. Because betting unders, as we know, basically makes you Norman Bates. Even for a deep league streamer in season-long Fantasy or the pivot off of a relatively chalky Josh Reynolds (for cheaper!), Byrd works.
Byrd o29.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
That juice is only going to get worse too. Also, from that game, Jimmy Graham’s receiving total is only 11.5. We hammered this on Thanksgiving at 7.5, so let’s go back to the well and hit the over again. Graham has at least doubled this number in each of his past three starts.
And if none of that works, chase the unlikely with the Jordan Whisperer…
After giving out Li’l Jordon anytime TD Thursday night, I’ll hope this is a Jordan heater and Brevin can find pay dirt. Not only did I grab the +1400 any time TD, I took First TD and Last TD for +6600 a piece along with two or more TDs at +12500 (fun waste of a free bet). Look, when Brevin Jordan scores two TDs, the first and last of the game, I want to reap the financial rewards.
In full honestly, while I’ve made all these bets, the Byrd and Graham ones actually seem like great value to me. The others, like Razor Ramon says about the Chicas, they just for fun.
Week 13 RANKINGS
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday after Inactives Released
Week 13 INJURY REPORT
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday after Inactives Released
D’Andre Swift (shoulder) OUT
Jordan Howard (knee) OUT
JD McKissic (Head) OUT
Melvin Gordon (hip) Likely OUT
Phillip Lindsay (ankle) Likely OUT
Darrell Henderson (Quad) Likely OUT
David Johnson (illness, thigh) Likely OUT
Trey Sermon (Ankle) Placed on IR
Adrian Peterson SIGNED BY SEAHAWKS; Likely IN
James Robinson (knee/heel) Likely IN
Boston Scott (Illness) Likely IN
Josh Jacobs (ankle) Likely IN
Brandon Bolden (knee) Likely IN
JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) IN
Miles Sanders (Ankle) Likely IN
Travis Homer (Calf) Likely IN
Alex Collins (abdomen) Likely IN
Rashaad Penny (Hamstring) Likely IN
Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) OUT Multiple Weeks
Michael Carter (ankle) OUT 1-2 Weeks
Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) Missed Week 12; On Bye
Alvin Kamara Missed Week 13
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR
Antonio Brown (FAKE VAX) OUT til Dec 26
Keelan Cole (COVID LIST) Likely OUT
Allen Robinson (hamstring) Likely OUT
Kadarius Toney (quad) Likely OUT
Will Fuller (finger) Likely OUT
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) Likely OUT
Marquise Goodwin (foot) OUT
Deebo Samuel (Groin) OUT 1-2 Weeks
Corey Davis (Groin) GAME TIME DECISION
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) GAME TIME DECISION
Odell Beckham (Hip) QUESTIONABLE
Anthony Schwartz (concussion) Likely IN
AJ Brown (Chest) OUT; Placed on IR
Calvin Ridley (personal) Likely OUT
Cedrick Wilson (Ankle) Missed Week 13
Taysom Hill (Finger) Week-to-Week
Jalen Hurts (Ankle) Likely OUT
Daniel Jones (Neck) OUT
Kyler Murray (ankle) Likely IN
Justin Fields (Ribs) Likely OUT; Dalton Will Start
Pat Freiermuth (Concussion) IN
Darren Waller (Knee) Likely OUT
Dan Arnold (Knee) OUT 4-6 Weeks
Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) Missed Week 12
Eric Ebron (Knee) Likely OUT
Kyle Rudolph (Ankle) Missed Week 12
Lookahead Week 15-17 D/ST Streams
49ers (vs ATL/at TEN/vs HOU)
Dolphins (vs NYJ/at NO/at TEN)
Jaguars (vs HOU/at NYJ/
Titans (at PIT/vs SF/vs MIA)
at LAR/vs CHI/vs DET)
Saints at (
TB/vs MIA/vs CAR)
Week 13 Spread Bets
Cam returned this week and ensured we cannot go 9-0 for the week (Not that we would anyway). Cam and I are going head-to-head with the Cardinals/Bears game. Didn’t foresee that as the place where a stand would be made this week. If you care not for the NFL picks, Cam does have some life lessons involving plungers, so you should really watch the show.
Remember to Sub to the Newsletter so you can always get the Spread Picks show a day in advance!
To follow up on Cust’s insane claim that “Even Packers fans would rather have Kirk Cousins than Aaron Rodgers at this point, ” here’s a handy table for reference in case actually watching the games didn’t make Rodgers over Cousins as obvious as possible.
We can distinctly see where they’re similar and where they differ.
Week 13 DraftKings Notes
47% of games this season have had an over/under of at least 48 points this season. Here are some PPR notes for those games …
66.7% of 30-point QB games have come in such games
38.6% of 25-point RB games have come in such games
63.6% of 25-point WR games have come in such games
57.8% of 15-point TE games have come in such games
Saquon Barkley (at Dolphins)
Barkley got 81% of NYG RB touches last week and was on the field for 86.2% of their offensive snaps. #EstablishTheRun.
7x this year has a team given their RBs over 15 carries vs MIA: 8 TD and 107 rush yards/game
Brandin Cooks (vs. Colts)
IND allows a TD on 6.2% of passes this season (2nd highest).
First meeting: season-high 9 catches on 13 targets (89 yards).In a game where Davis Mills posted a 27.5 QBR (can’t get much worse)
He’s not the only WR1 that has had success against IND
Kupp (Week 2): 36.8 PPR points
Hollywood (Week 5): 33.5 PPR points
AJ Brown (Week 8): 31.5 PPR points
Deebo Samuel (Week 7): 21 PPR points
Stefon Diggs (Week 11): 18.3 PPR points
Tyler Conklin (at Lions)
MIN aDOT’s this season: Jefferson (12.2), Thielen (9.5), Osborn (9.9) and Conklin (5.5)
Cousins’ air yards/throw:
6 games in which Mattison has gotten 15+ touches: 6.2
Other games during those 2.5 years: 7.9
GALAXY BRAIN: Is Justin Herbert Underrated?
DraftKings has him priced as QB6 on the main slate ($6,700) and he might still be a bargain. First is the human nature part of things. He is priced $400 ahead of a promising young QB in the same game and is just $500 cheaper than the GOAT playing a Falcons team he already lit up for five touchdowns this season.
Another part of going with Herbert is a way of leveraging what is sure to be a popular Joe Mixon. I mean, he’s scored multiple touchdowns in four straight games and has run for 288 yards over the past two weeks. Who wouldn’t want that? But if Herbert is rolling (something we already need for this lineup to work), then the Chargers are likely winning. In losses this season, Mixon is averaging 17 touches per game, a nice total, but a significant decline from the 23.7 he averages in wins. The Chargers defense is no great shakes, but if we are looking at 17 touches for Mixon, paying off (never mind smashing) his $8,100 price tag is a tall order.
Want to take it a step further? No? Doesn’t matter, my newsletter, my rules. If the Bengals are playing from behind, who is the bring back here? Secret of the Uzomahhhhhh.
When trailing this season, Uzomah has caught 11 of his 12 targets for 127 yards and 3 scores. In those situations, Chase/Higgins have caught 58.6% of their targets. We talk about correlation and making your lineup less like a 9-leg parlay and this weeks allows you to do just that. Is the story I’m telling in Cincinnati ultra-specific? Of course, but if I get that single game (very) right, I could hit with half of my skill guys while most lineups take a hit (those with Mixon at the very least, and potentially one of those popular receivers fail).
A few facts for the road. Mike Williams is the tough sell here and he’s back to the 2020 version in terms of his role and that hurts in redraft, but it’s really not that bad for DFS. The Bengals are bottom-10 in both opponent deep CMP% and percentage of opponent end zone throws that are on target. Williams is priced outside the top-20 receivers on this slate, but given the fact that one long end zone target could get him more than halfway to hitting value in a good spot … worth the risk (and if he gets going, things open up for Keenan Allen: more correlation!). Final note. Drops. They are debilitating, but they aren’t the most projectable of things. Herbert has been a top-3 quarterback in completions, pass yards and pass TDs over the past two weeks despite his teammates dropping 8.3% of targets. 8.3%! The league average in those weeks is 3.1%. From Weeks 2-9, the Chargers’ drop rate was better (lower) than the league average. It’s not hard to paint a pretty Herbert picture and with the elite QBs in pretty good spots … I don’t think he’ll be overwhelming chalky.
Week 13 DraftKings Ownership
My two favorite pivot stacks are Garoppolo/Kittle(Me Timbers)/Aiyuk and Stafford/Kupp/Jefferson. Many wonder how I still can afford the electricity to keep my computer charged. I do too.