Week 12 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes

+ Early Access Spread Link & Promos!!!

THANKSGIVING

I got the GOODS already for the Thanksgiving slate…

WATCH: Thanksgiving Spread Picks + Cust Corner MINI

Oh, Davis and I broke down the DK slate for the holiday too.

WATCH: THANKSGIVING DRAFTKINGS PICKS

OHHHHHH, Prize Picks is giving you a FREE SQUARE this week too. You can use it in the MMN 7/11 contest if you like, or try to put together another 1-4 picks with to capitalize. They’ll only allow a MAX $25 play on it, so I’m gonna make a 4 pick play with the Josh Allen Prop on it. Use code “MNN” when you deposit and you’ll get matched up to $100. So, deposit $100 and have $200 on Prize Picks.

PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”

This prop is NOW AVAILABLE at Prize Picks, so here’s the 10x play…

PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”

Oh, if you’re here for the secret link to the Week 12 Spread picks show. YOU GOT IT!!!!

WATCH: WEEK 12 SPREAD PICKS + CUST CORNER

Also, I’m giving three people $100 (straight cash), who Rate 5-Stars, leave a review (a good one) along with twitter/email in the review on Apple Podcasts over the next week. If you’ve previously left one, you’re already in the draw, but updating the review will bump you up to the top of the list, thus making it easier for me to see it.

THANKS IN ADVANCE!!!!!

LINK: PME APPLE PODCAST

I’m holding the public release until Wednesday afternoon this week because we’ve put out so much content already I don’t want any of it to get lost in the shuffle. But here are the picks…

Week 12 RANKINGS

BYE WEEKS: ARZ, KC

WATCH: WEEK 12 RANKINGS BREAKDOWN

Last Updated: 1230 pm ET
Next Update: Saturday

RB https://bit.ly/21W12RBs
WR https://bit.ly/21W12WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W12QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W12TEDST

Week 12 INJURIES

Last Updated: 1230 pm ET
Next Update: Saturday

Running Back

  • Ezekiel Elliott (Knee) IN on THANKS

  • Mark Ingram (Knee) OUT on THANKS

  • Alvin Kamara OUT on THANKS

  • Michael Carter (ankle) Likely OUT 2-3 Weeks

  • Jordan Howard (knee) Likely OUT Week 12

  • Elijah Mitchell (Finger) Likely IN

  • JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) Missed Week 11

  • Aaron Jones (knee) Likely OUT Week 11

  • Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) QUESTIONABLE

  • Jermar Jefferson (knee, ankle) QUESTIONABLE

  • Kareem Hunt (Calf) Likely OUT

  • Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) Likely IN

  • Adrian Peterson (Too Old) Waived by the Titans

  • Philip Lindsay Cut by the Texans; Signed by Dolphins

  • Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR

Wide Receiver

  • Amari Cooper (COVID LIST) OUT For THANKSGIVING

  • CeeDee Lamb (Concussion) OUT For THANKSGIVING

  • Allen Robinson (hamstring) Likely OUT for THANKS

  • Ray Ray McCloud (COVID LIST) QUESTIONABLE

  • AJ Brown (Chest) QUESTIONABLE

  • Jarvis Landry (knee) QUESTIONABLE

  • Jamal Agnew (Hip) OUT FOR SEASON

  • Marcus Johnson (hamstring) OUT FOR SEASON

  • Sterling Shepard (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE

  • Antonio Brown (ankle) QUESTIONABLE

  • Marquise Brown (Thigh) QUESTIONABLE

  • Anthony Schwartz (concussion) QUESTIONABLE

  • DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) Missed Week 11; On BYE

  • Curtis Samuel (groin) Likely OUT

  • Will Fuller (finger) Likely OUT

  • Allen Lazard Missed QUESTIONABLE

  • Calvin Ridley (personal) Likely OUT Week 12

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (core) QUESTIONABLE

Quarterback

  • Justin Fields (Ribs) OUT for THANKS

  • Andy Dalton WILL START on THANKS

  • Jared Goff (oblique) Trending towards IN on THANK

  • Zach Wilson (knee) WILL START

  • Lamar Jackson (illness) Likely IN

  • Kyler Murray (ankle) Missed Week 11; On BYE

Tight End

  • Eric Ebron (Knee) Will miss “Extended Time”

  • Adam Trautman (Knee) OUT 4-6 Weeks

  • Geoff Swaim (concussion) QUESTIONABLE

  • Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) QUESTIONABLE

  • Logan Thomas (Hamstring) QUESTIONABLE

THANKSGIVING PLAYER NOTES

David Montgomery (at Lions)

The Lions are allowing more yards per carry after contact than before contact this season and are on pace to be the worst tackling team since the 2017 Chargers. Montgomery is clearly the guy on a betting favorite, playing on short rest with a backup quarter … he finishes better than RB5 and that’s where he slots in DK pricing.

Gabriel Davis (at Saints)

In the past four weeks, Davis is being targeted once every 3.9 routes, way up from the 8.8 number he posted for the season prior to this recent run. The Saints are slightly worse than league average opponent deep TD rate, a massive change from their top-5 ranking on other passes. 

Bryan Edwards (at Cowboys)

Edwards ranks 5th at the position in yards per catch after the reception this season and no team allows more yards per catch after the reception to receivers than the Cowboys. Edwards is coming off of his second air ball in three weeks and that figures to make him a semi-unique play on a slate where that’s going to be tough to find.

GALAXY BRAIN: Super Bowl Bet?

I mentioned it on the Thanksgiving Picks show … buying the dip on either (or both!) the Rams and Bills might be worth it. Yes, both haven’t looked good recently. Yes, I’m viewing that as an opportunity to get improved odds as opposed to a reason to worry and here’s why:

Of course, this is a cherry picked example and by no means am I suggesting that the Chiefs’ path in 2019 is predictive of what will happen this winter, but the general idea remains: the NFL season is a grind and a mid-season swoon isn’t something to fear if you believe in the roster that is in place. Both teams have a quarterback capable of taking over, a standout receiver, a top-5 defense in terms of pressure rate and realistic control over their playoff seeding.

At roughly 28-to-1, this Super Bowl pairing is still a very possible outcome and with no real elite teams out there, what’s not to like other than their current form? And how many champions, in any sport, can you quickly recall the quality of their mid-season play? Exactly. Take one entry off of your DFS bankroll, put it on this future bet. Minimal investment and it will likely come with hedge equity as the season progresses: not sure the odds get better than this for these two teams.

Now, I’m going to wait a week or two to see if I can get better odds on these teams, as even with multiple losses, both are still very likely to end up in the playoffs and still have enough time. The markets still have too much belief in the Bills right now. But a loss to the Pats next Monday night could drastically swing that. Then, it’s time to hit it.

GOLF!!!!!!

Yes, the PGA is finished for the season, but there’s shit to bet on in South Africa. Tom and Sky will have their picks for every event if you’re jonesing for some links action. So far, I’m only in on Daniel Gavins at 90/1 with a Top 5 each way. I legit have no idea who that is, but I saw Tom and Sky tweet about him so that was good enough for me.

WATCH: 2021 Joburg Open Picks

OF NOTE

16.8% of you need to seek help. I shall concede defeat on this one to Tim however. Never imagine the split would be this high for you Sink Truthers.

Hope everyone has a GREAT holiday. Next newsletter coming Saturday with updates and main slate info.

— PM