Week 11 WEEKEND UPDATE - Injuries, Top Props, DraftKings Notes
LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO THE(Up to $30,000 GIVEAWAYS Draw)
Although I fell (way) short on making to Miami for the King of the Beach Live Final, our good friend Tambo will be flying first class to South Beach to try and win the $300K top prize. Tambo said he’s going to give away 10% of whatever he wins at the KOTB to a few different people. Mega generous.
To become eligible from my end, you need to Subscribe, rate and review (5-Stars) to The Pat Mayo Experience Audio Podcast on Apple Pods and/or Spotify, and set it to auto download. Do it on both platforms for twice as many chances to get the bag!
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
You should also check out Tambo’s site, ShipitNation. All sports, projections, DFS strategy and advice. It’s all there. Plus, code “MAYO” will get you 10% all packages. Or you can support by watching the FREE shows SIN does for NFL and NBA on Mayo Media Network through out the week. The shows are LIVE and you can always ask questions. Plus, I’m positive Tambo will tell you the other ways to get in the draw for his cash giveaways.
JOIN: SHIP IT NATION: STRATEGY, ADVICE, DISCORD CHAT
Week 11 Injuries
RB
Dameon Pierce (ankle) — Expected OUT
Antonio Gibson (toe) — Expected OUT
Alexander Mattison (concussion) — Expected IN
D'Onta Foreman (ankle) — Expected IN
Khalil Herbert — Expected IN
De'Von Achane — Expected IN
Clyde Edwards-Helaire — Questionable
Kyren Williams — Eligible to Return Week 12
Week 11 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/23W11RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W11WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W11QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W11TEDSTRanks
WR
Noah Brown (knee) — OUT
Justin Jefferson (Knee) — OUT
Treylon Burks (Concussion) — Expected OUT
Jaylen Guyton — Expected OUT
Keenan Allen (shoulder) — Expected IN
Garrett Wilson (elbow) — Expected IN
KJ Osborn (Concussion) — Expected IN
Jalin Hyatt (Concussion) — Expected IN
Tyler Lockett (hamstring) — Questionable
Nico Collins (calf) — Expected IN
Zay Jones (knee) — Questionable
Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder) — Exited Game
Tee Higgins (Hamstring) — Missed Week 11
TE
Dallas Goedert (Arm) — OUT
Gerald Everett (Back) — OUT
Hayden Hurst (concussion) — OUT
Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) — Expected IN
Mark Andrews (Leg) — Expected OUT FOR SEASON
QB
DeShaun Watson (Shoulder) — OUT FOR SEASON; Dorian Thompson-Robinson Will Start
Matt Stafford (Thumb) — Expected IN
Justin Fields (Thumb) — Expected IN
Joe Burrow (wrist) — OUT FOR SEASON
Week 11 DraftKings
As you may have noticed, I didn’t have a DraftKings Picks show or Weekend Update for Week 11. The sickness took ahold of me. When you have two little kids, you’re just one sneeze away from ferocious congestion cold sweats, while they walk around with a slight cough, laughing at you. I’m expected to be fully recovered for Sunday Night Live show with Cust and Meaney (Tune in at 715pm ET btw).
Unfortunately, I didn’t get to take on a bunch of builds to see which ones I like for the week and bounce the ideas off someone else. It’s not all bad news, though. Justin at Run The Sims provided a simple cheatsheet for Week 11.
Send your good vibes to Tambo in Miami too!
Triple Stack: Brock Purdy - Deebo Samuel - Brandon Aiyuk
In a week with Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes all off of the main slate, the QB position favors the bold this week. The 49ers have reached 30 points in six of seven Samuel games this season and in games in which both Samuel/Aiyuk play, George Kittle owns a 13.4% target share. If we don't have to pencil in much TE usage (certainly possible given the physical brand of ball Kittle plays and a short work week ahead with SF playing on Thanksgiving), the target share is condensed against a bottom 6 defense in yards per attempt, yards per completion and percentage of opponent yards that come through the air.
Leverage- Buffalo Bills
They don't look good. That's obvious. The Jets are a strong defense, also obvious. I can't imagine Josh Allen being a popular pay up option this week and I'd guess James Cook and Stefon Diggs also see suppressed ownership. I get it, but do they not still own elite upside?
Embrace the uncertainty. With a new OC, maybe we get Allen unlocked? As bad as he's looked in real life, he does have six top-8 finishes at the position -- he's run for a TD in seven of eight games and has hit the 300-yard bonus three times over that run.
Stefon Diggs has posted a 23-311-4 receiving line in those three 300-yard Allen games, they are tied together. Cook posted season highs in catches and targets in Week 1 against these Jets -- marry that with the rushing upside he saw after the early game benching last week and you might be onto something at a low ownership (Hall and Wilson make for reasonable bring back options too if you really want to double down).
Cute Plays
Michael Wilson: Kyler Murray's aDOT in his 2023 debut was 51.5% higher than what he posted last season. This is among the highest totals on the board and the Texans own the 5th lowest blitz rate -- time for Wilson to get down the field. And it looks like he’s playing. That’s always a bonus.
Jerome Ford: A mess at QB and a rush TD in five straight for Kareem Hunt, the Ford profile from a bird's eye doesn't look great. But with 43 touches over the past two weeks, the volume is there for Ford and Hunt's success around the goal line is proof that this team is capable of providing value to the backfield ... what if that flips this week in Ford's favor with DTR?
Cade Otton: Flop lag? He won the few that played him in Week 8 all the money and then stunk in Week 9 when everyone went to him? What's changed? He's still on the field for over 95% of snaps and is a game that figures to script in the favor of the pass game. The 49ers have the 8th lowest opponent aDOT and that frees up Otton for a decent catch total and maybe a short score.
Lions D/ST: Are people going to be sucked in by the upside of Justin Fields? If so, I'm in. An inconsistent passer returning from a thumb injury without elite elite feels like an advantageous spot for a defense that has already posted three games north of 10 fantasy points and is familiar with him from years past.
— PM