JOIN: Week 11 DraftKings PME Listeners League (Only 2500 spots this week, so reserve one nw)
LAST CALL TO GET INTO THE(Up to $30,000 GIVEAWAYS Draw)
Although I fell (way) short on making to Miami for the King of the Beach Live Final, our good friend Tambo will be flying first class to South Beach to try and win the $300K top prize. Tambo said he’s going to give away 10% of whatever he wins at the KOTB to a few different people. Mega generous.
To become eligible from my end, you need to Subscribe, rate and review (5-Stars) to The Pat Mayo Experience Audio Podcast on Apple Pods and/or Spotify, and set it to auto download. Do it on both platforms for twice as many chances to get the bag!
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
You should also check out Tambo’s site, ShipitNation. All sports, projections, DFS strategy and advice. It’s all there. Plus, code “MAYO” will get you 10% all packages. Or you can support by watching the FREE shows SIN does for NFL and NBA on Mayo Media Network through out the week. The shows are LIVE and you can always ask questions. Plus, I’m positive Tambo will tell you the other ways to get in the draw for his cash giveaways.
JOIN: SHIP IT NATION: STRATEGY, ADVICE, DISCORD CHAT
Week 11 Injuries
RB
Alexander Mattison (concussion) — Expected OUT
Clyde Edwards-Helaire — Questionable
Dameon Pierce (ankle) — Questionable
Antonio Gibson (toe) — Questionable
Khalil Herbert — Expected IN
De'Von Achane — Expected IN
Kyren Williams — Eligible to Return Week 12
Week 11 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/23W11RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W11WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W11QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W11TEDSTRanks
WR
Tee Higgins (Hamstring) — OUT
Keenan Allen (shoulder) — Questionable
Diontae Johnson (thumb) — Questionable
Treylon Burks (Concussion) — Questionable
DJ Clark (Elbow) — Questionable
Jalin Hyatt (Concussion) — Expected OUT
Zay Jones (knee) — Expected OUT
Nico Collins (calf) — Expected IN
Justin Jefferson (Knee) — Expected IN
KJ Osborn (Concussion) — Expected IN
TE
Dallas Goedert (Arm) — OUT
Gerald Everett (Back) — Expected OUT
Hayden Hurst (concussion) — Expected OUT
Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) — Expected IN
QB
DeShaun Watson (Shoulder) — OUT FOR SEASON; Dorian Thompson-Robinson Expected To Start
Matt Stafford (Thumb) — Expected IN
Justin Fields (Thumb) — Expected IN
RSM Classic BETS
Si WOO KIM 35/1 — Si WOOOOO stopped playing this event in 2019 after missing the cut for the third straight year. Seems strange, though. What are the main comp events? Sony, Heritage, Colonial, probably, the three main ones. Maybe Sawgrass too? Well, Si Woo has won at three of those courses.
Davis Thompson 60/1 — One of 400 “local ties” players in the field. We need Thompson to match his late-summer putting with his current ball striking and we’re rich.
Billy Horschel 55/1 — Someday, I’m guessing there’s going to be an awesome documentary made about what happened Billy Horschel from January 2023-August 2023. He was awful on the course; truly horrendous. Not sure why, either. Since, he’s been pretty solid. Hasn’t missed a cut in any of his past six starts, and even decided to press his form by heading to Europe and reeling off three Top 20s on four starts. Also, I’m chasing my money from 2016 when he lost in a 16325728 man playoff after having it, seemingly, locked up coming down the stretch.
TNF PROPS
T’was almost a perfect week in the props department for the Prop Sniper, but Gardner Minshew, that silly goose, had to go and RUIN IN!!!!
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
Always time to get back on the horse, and you get to look the gift horse directly in the teeth with this one. Joe Burrow UNDER 12.5 rushing yards. QB rushing props are always terrifying, knowing it just takes one to kill you, especially when Burrow has beat this number in two of his last three.
Always remember to click over to the “First TD” filter to see what’s going on over there. I’l save you a clikc for TNF, despite the rise of The KEATON MASK in the Ravens backfield, Justice Hill is currently the second best First TD value vs odds of the week (currently).
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
Week 11 Shows & Cheatsheets
Pat Mayo, Geoff Fienberg and Tim Anderson go game-by-game and make their 2023 Week 11 Picks, Bets and Props. Plus, a mini Cust Corner on picky eating.
This was a bad one for Cust not seeming insane.
Watch: Week 11 Picks Against The Spread, NFL Game Picks | Cust Corner: Picky Eaters
Pat Mayo, Rob Pizzola, and Cam Stewart give their 2023 NFL Week 11 Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.
WATCH: Week 11 Best Bets | 2023 NFL Week 11 Teaser, Odds | DeShaun Watson Out for the Year
Gold Picks
Mayo: MIA -12
Pizzola: NYG +9
Cam: NYJ +7
Silver Picks
Mayo: PHI +3
Pizzola: CLE -1.5
Cam: CLE -1.5
Bronze Picks
Mayo: LAC -3
Pizzola: CHI +9
Cam: CHI +9
GROUP TEASER
6-Point Teaser: MIA -6/MIN +8.5/JAX -1
Week 11 Betting Trends
Do historic trends ave any relevance to betting this week? No. But they’re fun to look at!
Since the beginning of last season, the Bengals are 8-5 outright (9-4 ATS) when playing on the road. Unders are 10-3 in 13 Ravens home games since the beginning of last season.
The Browns are just 3-8 outright following a win since the beginning of last season.
Since 2021, the Bears are the worst ATS team in divisional games (2-12) while the Lions are the best (11-2).
The Chargers have won seven of their past eight games against bottom 10 pass offenses (Jordan Love has more interceptions than touchdown passes since Week 3).
The Raiders have been the worst ATS team on the road since the beginning of last season (4-10). The Dolphins are 12-1 outright (11-2 ATS) in their past 13 warm weather games (the early forecast for Sunday: 80 degrees and sunny).
The Giants are 7-2-1 outright in their past 10 against the Commanders and seven of the past eight meetings have been decided by a single possession. The Commanders have played a bottom 10 offense 10 times since the beginning of last season -- unders are 10-0.
Overs are 6-3 since the beginning of last season when the Panthers play a top 10 offense (third highest hit rate in the league).
Since the beginning of last season, unders are 6-1 when the Titans play within the division.
Live bet? The Texans have not won the first quarter in any of their past three victories.
Since the beginning of last season, unders are 4-1 when the Bucs are getting at least four points. Not a bad trend to consider for a team that is 7-2 to the unders thus far in 2023.
Under tickets have come through in seven of the past 10 instances in which the Jets are getting at least four points. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry and in none of those games were more than 38 points scored.
Unders are 11-7-1 during the Sean McVay era when the Rams have a rest advantage.
Since the beginning of last season, the Vikings are 8-4 outright on the road and 11-5 outright following a victory.
Four of Philadelphia's past five games against top 10 offenses have gone over the number. Overs are 5-2 since the beginning of last season when the Chiefs play a top 10 pass defense.
— PM