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Week 11 DraftKings Picks
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Week 11 RANKINGS
WATCH: Week 11 Rankings By Position
RB https://bit.ly/22W11RBs
WR https://bit.ly/22W11WRs
QB https://bit.ly/22W11QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W11TEDST
Week 11 Injury Cheatsheet
RB
Eno Benjamin RELEASED by Cardinals; Signed by Texans
Khalil Herbert (hip) — Placed on IR
Leonard Fournette (hip) — On bye; Not expected to miss time
Ezekiel Elliott (Knee) — Likely IN
Deon Jackson (Knee) — Likely IN
Mark Ingram (Knee) — OUT
Gus Edwards (Hamstring) — Questionable
JD McKiissic (Neck) — Placed on Season Ending IR
WR
Randall Cobb (ankle) — Likely IN
Mecole Hardman (abdomen) — OUT; Placed on IR
Corey Davis (Knee) — OUT
Jerry Jeudy (ankle) — OUT
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Concussion) — OUT
KJ Hamler (Hamstring) — OUT
Cooper Kupp (Ankle) — Placed on IR
Wan'Dale Robinson (Hamstring) — Questionable
Davante Adams (abdomen) — Questionable
Keenan Allen (Hamstring) — Questionable
Mike Williams (Ankle) — Questionable
DeAndre Carter (ribs) — IN
Russell Gage (hamstring) — Questionable
Josh Reynolds (back) — Questionable
Ja'Marr Chase (hip) — OUT up to 4 Weeks
Romeo Doubs (Ankle) — OUT 2-6 Weeks
TE
Dallas Goedert (shoulder) — Placed on IR
Gerald Everett (Groin) — Likely IN
David Njoku (Ankle) — Likely IN
Zach Ertz (knee) — OUT FOR SEASON
Mark Andrews (Shoulder) — Game Time Decision
Jelani Woods (shoulder) — OUT
QB
P.J. Walker (ankle) — OUT
Lamar Jackson (Illness) — Likely IN
Colt McCoy (Knee/Hamstring) — Questionable
Kyler Murray (hamstring) — Questionable
Matt Stafford (Concussion) — Likely IN
RSM Picks
It’s the final PGA event of the year, so I had to wrangle Geoff one last time for 2022 to talk through our golf bets. As an added bonus, he brought some Phil Mickelson/Pat Perez LIV drama to my attention and we chatted about it.
WATCH: RSM Classic Bets + LIV TOUR Drama
Joel Dahmen — The trusted bucket hat has been about as consistent as anyone during the swing in the ball striking department, piling up four Top 20s in his last five starts including consecutive Top 10s. And he’s done it all losing to the field with his putter. Obviously, that’s not super encouraging, however, bermuda is his preferred putting surface (although bermudagrass is a bit wonky this time of year) and he’s gained on the greens at the RSM his past two starts, and in three of six starts overall at this site.
Ben Griffin — If the scores start going low, Griffins putter can get hot enough to start contenting. He sniffed winning in Bermuda before fading Sunday, and although he’s a newcomer to the scene, he churned out a Top 5 finish at a comp course at the Wyndham. The driving is usually the issue, but he actually managed to gain strokes on the field in Houston, so maybe it’s turning upwards for him.
Andrew Putnam — Irons and putting: The Putnam Method. His driving issues may ultimately end up costing him, but we’ve seen a few poor stickmen triumph on Sea Island in the past. Driving is lessened in the three rounds at the Seaside course, so as long as he’s not tooooooo bad off the tee, Putnam should be in contention again.
GALAXY BRAIN: Stars and Scrubs
The all-or-nothing roster construction is an option, in the right spot, for all sports and I think there’s a chance Week 11 is such a spot.
Jalen Hurts at IND
- Plays indoors after following an upset loss on national TV
- Holes to punch in the other top tier QBs (five other QBs priced over $6,500)
o Josh Allen: CLE has the 3rd fewest drop backs faced per game
o Lamar Jackson: CAR won’t be caught off guard by this offense … CAR had the mini-bye and has played four games where the opponent relies on the mobility of their QB (AZ, NYG and ATL twice)
o Justin Fields: CHI and ATL both rank bottom-8 in pace of play
o Joe Burrow: PIT is 6th best in opponent CMP%
o Dak Prescott: MIN allows the 8th fewest red zone trips per game
Saquon Barkley vs DET
- Jared Goff outside … which means turnovers … which means NYG has the ball
o Barkley has accounted for 36.5% of NYG yards and 48.6% of their touches
- Barkley has 23+ touches in 5 of his past 6 games
- DET is allowing 5.0 yards per carry to RBs (2.52 of those yards coming after contact, the highest rate in the league)
- DET is allowing a TD once every 18.6 RB carries (2nd highest rate)
Ravens D/ST vs CAR
- BAL riding a 3-game win streak, playing at home and coming off a bye
- BAL is the 6th best defense at creating pressure when they blitz this season … think, just maybe, they bring the heat in this spot?
- BAL is a top-5 first half team in point differential (CAR is bottom-10 … a big lead is possible and that could give us two full quarters of Baker drop backs!)
- Defenses vs Baker in his last 14 starts
o 15 interceptions
o 51 sacks (104 QB contacts)
o 30% blitz rate
None of those are sneaky plays, but rostering all of them isn’t going to be common. One way to make it work would be to roster two of the five tight ends than ran a route on over 78% of their team drop backs last week. Yea, a double TE lineup isn’t sexy, but Foster Moreau and Greg Dulcich do two things … (1) they fill two roster spots for a total of $7,500 and (2) they provide you with a skinny stack that won’t be used by anyone. Would it shock you if the Broncos and Raiders played a goofy TE game that saw the tight ends chew up usage? By doing this, you can stack Hurts with a bring back and still build a reasonable roster. Of course, the floor for this thing is low … but the ceiling is there by way of our stars and the unique construction.
Week 11 DraftKings
At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across the main slate. Seems high for Rhamondre imo. We’ll see how things get adjusted over the week…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
Week 11 Spread Picks
Spread picks… LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOO
WATCH: Week 11 Spreads + Cust Corner
— PM