MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
If you haven’t played at Prize Picks yet. Give your head a shake. Then sign up. Get a deposit match up to $100. (So, deposit $100, and get a FREE $100), then use code “MMNNFL” and get another FREE $25 if you play a MNF entry and this happens…
Jay Glazer reported Sunday Ben Skowronek is going to start over Odell Beckham Monday night. I have no idea what this means btw. Could be he plays the first snap, series, or entire game. Either way, he’s the min price on DK. I’ll defer to Justin Freeman on this one, as he’s the showdown guru, but it strikes me as he’s going to be jammed in every where for the savings. However, if I tinker with the single-game simulator on Run The Sims, and readjust the baseline of the Rams WRs to Jefferson/Skowronek UP, OBJ DOWN…
… after 10,000 game simulations, it still puts Skowronek behind 49ers WR Trent Sherfield, who is the same price and likely wayyyyyyy lesser owned. (Full ownership projections up on RTS closer to game time)
Now, you likely don’t want to play either one of them. However, after my customizations, Sherfield appears in my most common optimal lineup (26/10000) and never again in my most common 15 lineups…
Anyway, use the tools and build you lineups however you like at Run The Sims. Here’s a discount price…
SPREAD LOOK AHEAD
Looks like we get the Saints as dogs again. After a perfect situation at the end of its Week 10 game, New Orleans as now covered every game this season when favored by less than 3 points and as a underdog. Plus, Philly still hasn’t won in at home either.
Looking at the last three weeks, the Eagles rushing attack has fuelled them to two wins and a close loss with the Chargers. Look at who’ve they’ve played, though. The Chargers and Lions seems like they nine men on defense; the Broncos grade out well versus the run, but have gutted their front seven over the past month and are no where near same unit as the beginning of the season. The Saints are a premier run stopping unit.
Week 10 Injuries
BYE WEEKS: LAR, DEN
JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) OUT for MNF
Jeff Wilson Likely Active
Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) Could miss multiple weeks
Aaron Jones (knee) Expected to miss multiple weeks
Alvin Kamara Missed Week 10
Chris Carson (Neck) Missed Week 10
Nick Chubb (COVID) Missed Week 10
Jamaal Williams (thigh) Missed Week 10
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR
Damien Harris (Head) Missed Week 10
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Missed Week 10
Devontae Booker (Hip) On Bye Week 10
Saquon Barkley (ankle) Expected Back Week 11
Miles Sanders (ankle) Can come off IR
Latavius Murray (ankle) Missed Week 10
Robert Woods (Knee) OUT for Season
Odell Beckham Jr. (SIGNED WITH LAR) Likely IN
CeeDee Lamb (Arm) Exited Game
Anthony Schwartz (concussion) Exited Game
Chase Claypool (toe) Missed Week 10
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT At Least 1 More Week
Antonio Brown (ankle) Missed Week 10
Curtis Samuel (groin) Missed Week 10
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) Missed Week 10
Julio Jones (Hamstring) On IR
Allen Robinson (hamstring) On Bye Week 10
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) On Bye Week 10
Will Fuller (finger) Missed Week 10
Colt McCoy (Pec) Exited Game
Baker Mayfield (Knee) Exited Game
Ben Roethlisberger (COVID LIST) Missed Week 10
Kyler Murray (ankle) Missed Week 10
Sam Darnold (Shoulder) OUT Multiple Weeks
Zach Wilson (knee) Missed Week 10
Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) Exited Game
Dallas Goedert (Head) Exited Game
Hayden Hurst (Ankle) Exited Game
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) Missed Week 10
Logan Thomas (Hamstring) Missed Week 10
Jonnu Smith (Shoulder) Missed Week 10
WEEK 10 RB SNAPS
TE Routes/Drop Back
Mark Andrews 83.3%
Zach Ertz 82.4%
Darren Waller 77.5%
Dan Arnold 73.8%
Noah Fant 73.0%
Travis Kelce 72.5%
Tyler Conklin 72.5%
Kyle Pitts 72.4%
Cameron Brate 70.6%
Dalton Schultz 69.4%
WR Air Yards
Stefon Diggs 205
Tyler Lockett 197
Tyreek Hill 129
Justin Jefferson 123
Marvin Jones 120
Marquise Brown 108
Diontae Johnson 107
Keenan Allen 103
DeVonta Smith 97
Gabriel Davis 96
WEEK 10 GAME NOTES
Falcons: Through offensive snaps, Kyle Pitts had 2 catches for 35 yards … he had 2 for 25 the rest of the way
Cowboys: Dak Prescott’s last 7 fully healthy games with Michael Gallup: 2,692 passing yards and 18 TDs
- Zeke Elliott snaps a 3-game scoreless drought (2 TDs in a 9-minute span)
Saints: Mark Ingram got 67% of the Saints rush attempts and led them with 7 targets
Titans: AJ Brown (16 yards) was held under 50 receiving yards for the second consecutive game and the 6th time this season.
Jaguars: Dan Arnold led this team in catches (5) and had more receiving yards (67) than any two of his teammates combined.
Colts: Jonathan Taylor went over 100 rushing yards for the 5th time this season and ran for a score for 7th straight game … while also leading the team in catches (6) and targets (8)
- He set season highs in carries, catches and targets while recording a 30+ yard touch for the 7th straight game.
Browns: 26 touches for 157 yards. D’Ernest Johnson produced big numbers in a 38-point loss. Is it crazy to think 6.0 yards per carry Nick Chubb doesn’t have a featured role when he returns to action?
Patriots: Same game, same question. Damien Harries didn’t play and preseason superhero Rhamondre Stevenson piles up 114 yards and a pair of TDs
- Stevenson this preseason: 27 carries for 211 yards and 4 TDs
Bills: Matt Breida scores twice in the first 2.5 quarters, matching Devin Singletary’s TD total from his last 24 games (playoffs included).
- 3 different Bills had a rush TD inside the 10-yard line … none of them were named Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs has scored in 3 of his past 4 games (scoreless in 4 of 5 to open this season)
o He had a weird stretch last season with 1 score in 6 games … he had 10 catches or a TD in 5 of 6 games following that. He can be hit-and-miss … but once he gets rolling, he’s as good as it gets!
Jets: Not the type of blind resume you want …
- Home game vs divisional opponent: 58% complete, 6.4 yards per attempt, 0 TD, 4 INT
- Home game vs divisional opponent: 55% complete, 5.7 yards per attempt, 0 TD, 4 INT
o The first line is Zach Wilson against the Patriots and the second is Magic Mike White against the Bills. Woof
- Michael Carter has 20+ touches and a TD in both White starts this season
Lions: D’Andre Swift didn’t have a 15-carry game this season before getting handed the ball 33 times against the Steelers.
- As good as the rushing volume is to see, targets are typically more valuable. Swift had more targets than receiving yards. Thems the brakes when you dance with the Lions.
Steelers: The volume is elite, but the 4.04 yards per carry Najee Harris averaged against the Lions is his most over the past month.
Buccaneers: In a game they never led, five Buccaneers saw at least as many targets as Mike Evans. With Antonio Brown inactive. Against a defense that had underachieved as much as any through nine weeks
Footballs: Antonio Gibson still doesn’t have a 20-yard carry since Week 1, but he scored twice against the toughest run D in the NFL after not having scored in a month.
Panthers: A 9th career double double for Christian McCaffrey (rush attempts and receptions) extends his NFL record. The only other player with more than 4 in NFL history is LaDainian Tomlinson.
- LT had 6 in 170 career games. CMC now has 9 in 56 games
Cardinals: Christian Kirk matched season highs in catches (7) and targets (8)
- He’s caught 13 of 14 targets over the past two weeks, somehow remaining efficient with iffy QB play
Vikings: If you’re searching for a double stack, there may not be a better bet. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen accounted for 71% of Kirk Cousins’ passing yards against the FeinBolts.
- They have two matchups with the Packers and one with the Rams left (will need to score to keep pace)
- They have two matchups with the Beats and one with the Lions left (should be able to get whatever they want)
- Their other two games are at SF (should be good weather) and vs PIT on TNF (will they extend Cook on short rest? Indoors December bump)
Chargers: Did you know that Austin Ekeler has one game with more than 66 rushing yards this season?
- He saved you with the TD catch and is as good a bet as there is for 5-7 targets, but if you have someone willing to pay full price … the schedule isn’t great and the floor isn’t elite
Eagles: Jalen Hurts didn’t have a 30-yard run OR a 30-yard completion in 4 straight games entering Week 10 … he did both against a Broncos defense that looked as good as anyone a week ago.
Broncos: At different points, we’ve like each Denver receiver this season … that didn’t work in Week 10, as their two tight ends combined for over 60% of receiving yards.
- We now have a four game sample where Courtland Sutton is fantasy poison when Jerry Jeudy is active. He’s Jake Peralta. He’s worse at his job when in the presence of Jeudy!
Seahawks: Tyler Lockett caught just 2 of 8 targets against the Packers
- The last time Wilson missed on even 5 passes to Tyler Lockett was Week 7, 2020 … and that was because he threw to him 20 times (15 catches for 200 yards and 3 TDs).
o The buy-low window is open. He gets home games against the Bears and Lions in Weeks 16-17. If you want a cheap bet on Seattle, he’s your ticket
Packers: Any reason we shouldn’t rank AJ Dillon like we all did James Conner this past week (should Aaron Jones miss time)?
- Quadzilla was featured heavily and plays 4 of 5 games at home from Week 12-17
Not all weeks are winner. After running multiple fight cards over the past month, Cody Saftic talks about a night of underdog upsets from Saturday night