Week 10 NFL Weekend Update
Injuries, Rankings, Betting Notes, DraftKings, SGP Hack
HOT LINKS
Week 10 DraftKings Picks
Week 10 Best Bets
Week 10 Spread Picks & Cust Corner
DIRECT LINK: Week 10 PME DRAFTKINGS LISTENERS LEAGUE
Week 10 DFS Picks & Values
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Week 10 RANKINGS
WATCH: Weekend Ranks Update & Injuries
RB https://bit.ly/22W10RBRanks
WR https://bit.ly/22W10WRRanks
QB https://bit.ly/22W10WRRanks
TE DST https://bit.ly/22W10DSTTE
Week 10 Injury Cheatsheet
RB
Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — IN
Kyren Williams — IN
Eli Mitchell — IN
J.D. McKissic (neck) — OUT
Deon Jackson (Knee) — OUT
Mark Ingram (Knee) — OUT
Malcolm Brown (hamstring) — OUT
Ezekiel Elliot (Knee) — Likely OUT
Gus Edwards (Hamstring) — On Bye
Craig Reynolds (ribs) — Placed on injured reserve
WR
KJ Hamler (Hamstring) — OUT
Mecole Hardman (abdomen) — OUT
Keenan Allen (Hamstring) — OUT
Mike Williams (Ankle) — OUT
Russell Gage (hamstring) — OUT
Josh Reynolds (back) — OUT
Ja'Marr Chase (hip) — OUT up to 4 Weeks
Romeo Doubs (Ankle) — OUT 2-6 Weeks
Hunter Renfrow (ribs, hamstring) — Placed on IR
Ashton Dulin (foot) — Likely IN
Treylon Burks (toe) — Likely IN
Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — Likely IN
Brandin Cooks (Personal) — Likely IN
Kenny Golladay (Knee) — IN
Nico Collins (groin) — Questionable
Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — IN
Christian Watson (Concussion) — IN
TE
Jelani Woods (shoulder) — OUT
David Njoku (Ankle) — OUT
Cameron Brate (Neck) — Questionable
Mo Alie-Cox (Ankle) — Questionable
Evan Engram (Back) — IN
Darren Waller (hamstring) — Placed on IR
QB
Josh Allen (elbow) — Likely IN
Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — Likely IN
Kyler Murray (hamstring) — Game time decision but leaning OUT
Matt Stafford (Concussion) — Game time decision but leaning OUT
Better Same Game Parlay Odds
Last week was a disaster when Taylor Heinicke decided to be an absolute goober and massively underwhelm. Bloodbath. Time to (*attempt) get it all back… AND MORE!!!! Nothing pleases me more than seeing the numbers and simulations agree with my initial thoughts. When a computer gives you conformation bias to add into your quiver it’s always a good feeling.
Dak Prescott unders against the defensively challenged Packers in colder than normal weather conditions is a great look from my perspective. And the Run The Sims Prize Picks simulator agrees…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
Dak has only hit the over to the 249.5 passing yards once in three starts (and that was 250 against the Bears), and even with the health of Zeke in flux, it only makes sense to continue their successful ground and pound approach. Dak hasn’t eclipsed 29 pass attempts in any game either fwiw.
Plus, looking at the Prize Picks line versus the line at DraftKings Sportsbook, you can see the under 249.5 is the proper side.
Doesn’t mean it will win, obv. But you’ve put yourself in an excellent spot vs the Sportsbook by making the Dak Under on Prize Picks your building block.
This may not be a new revelation to everyone, but I’m sure it will come was a surprise to some: Using non-correlated props in a same-game parlay actually fools the system and increases your odds.
Take this example: I like the Dak under, and want to go with the pass attempts on DK Sportsbook because it’s still 32.5, but they won’t give me and unders in the attempts section of the same game parlay. Tricky DK. So, the alt under 249.5 is the play.
Now — logically — pairing that with another receiving under correlates pretty well. So how about under 69.5 receptions for CeeDee? The Dak under is -145, CeeDee under is -140. Paired together, it’s +125.
However, if you find two negatively correlated props you like, it confuses the SGP algo and gives you a big boost. If we keep Dak under 249.5 (-145) and replace Ceedee with a low threshold atl over on Dalton Schultz 30+ receiving yards, which is -145 (more juiced than the Ceedee under, which was -140), you’ll get almost double the payout…
Even with Dak’s low passing volume and totals, Schultz has cleared this number in both games since Dak returned. It’s worth fucking around with some props in the same game parlay feature to see if you can artifically boost up some of your totals. Of note, both those props are atl totals at heavy juice, and you’re almost squeezing out 2.5x value on it.
DFS PICKS Week 10
We’ve partnered with JOCK MKT for football season, and so far BIG JOHN Laghezza has been plucking the values from the high and low end. If you haven’t played JOCK MKT yet, it’s essentially a stock market for players, so you buy them a one price for the week and see if they turn a profit.
WATCH: NFL Week 10 DFS Picks + Bets
It’s legit great if you only want to play for a little bit of cash per week. Find your penny stock players and cash. They’ve been an amazing partner with us at MMN, (and people are WINNING!) so give them a shot. And here’s some bribery…
Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”
If you missed me and Tambo chatting about the Week 10 DraftKings slate… SHAME. Still time to rectify that however. We talked through different Fields, Tua, and Keenum stacks along with the best games to target on the slate.
WATCH/LISTEN: Week 10 DraftKings Picks & Strategy
You can always just skip that and get your own info and build your own designs with Run the Sims…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
My partner at Run The Sims (The smart one), Justin Freeman, launched a wekeend twitter thread going through the optimals vs ownership and how to target certain players…
DIRECT LINK: Week 10 PME DRAFTKINGS LISTENERS LEAGUE
Week 10 Betting Notes
Something has to give
The Colts are terrible. BUT … the Raiders are 5-15 when Derek Carr starts and is favored by more than a field goal.
Close Moneylines
Over the past 5 seasons, teams favored by less than a field goal actually have a losing record outright (114-116-1). That’s a stark change from the 5 seasons prior (165-128-1)
America’s Game of the Week
Since 2020, home ‘dogs of more than a field goal have covered 57.5% of the time
Sunday Night Football
Since 2019, nearly 65% of Charger games (37-of-57) have been decided by 7 or fewer points.
Hop On The Prop
Over at DraftKings, they have the Texans/Giants game at +550 to be the lowest scoring of the day:
- Both bottom 10 in pace
- Both worse than average red zone offenses
- Both above average red zone defenses
- Both are top-12 in not turning the ball over
- Both teams are above average in net yards per punt
Monday Night Football
Over the past decade, double digit favorites on MNF are 5-13 ATS
Over the past decade, unders come through 60.5% of the time when a divisional game has a double digit spread
Obviously, as we do every week, Cam, gigabyte and I make our favorite bets of the week. If you missed the show this week, you missed the picks but also Cam’s never known rivalry with a woman named BARB in his complex. Fun stuff
WATCH: Week 10 NFL Best Bets
The TIDBITS
You should really do yourself a favor and follow Tambo. He’s doing the hard work so you don’t have to…
Week 10 Prize Picks & Props
As mentioned above, me and the sims like Dak’s under of 249.5 passing yards. So, that one is one. But what to pair it with. My next two favorites are Kalif Raymond (with Josh Reynolds OUT), over 34.5 receiving yards. He played 95% of the snaps at WR for the Lions with Reynolds sidelined (and HOCK traded) a week ago.
WATCH: Week 10 Prize Picks & Props
The Daniel Jones passing yards under of 185.5 is very enticing as well. Jones has gone under in two of the last three and the Texans defense, while not great vs the pass, is the worst team in the league against the run. And, although the spread isn’t huge, the Giants are rarely in a position where they’re expected to play from in front. On top of having one of the lowest totals of the week, the Giants and Texans are two of the lowest pace teams in football. That perfectly coinsides with both teams want to run the ball and shortening the game.
Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
A 5 BANGER for fun too
— PM