Week 10 Injuries, Updated Rankings
Week 10 Injuries, Updated Rankings
+ Props, Rankings and Cheatsheets
Week 10 Props
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Here’s my 2-Pick POWER PLAY for SUNDAY. RB RECEPTIONS UNITE!!!!
I decided to fuck around and do a same-game parlay too. LETS GO 25/1!!!!
WEEK 10 RANKINGS
Last Update: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Inactives
WATCH: Week 10 RANKINGS DEBATE
RB bit.ly/21W10RBs
WR bit.ly/21W10WRs
QB bit.ly/21W10QBs
TE/DST bit.ly/21W10TEDST
Week 10 Injury Report
Last Update: Sunday Morning
Next Update: Sunday Inactives
BYE WEEKS: CHI, CIN, NYG, HOU
WATCH: Week 10 Injuries, DK Ownership, Woods HURT
Running Back
Alvin Kamara OUT
Chris Carson (Neck) OUT
Nick Chubb (COVID) OUT
Jamaal Williams (thigh) OUT
JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) OUT
Jeff Wilson Likely Active
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) OUT 4-6 Weeks; Placed on IR
Tevin Coleman (hamstring) IN
James Robinson (Heel) IN
Zack Moss (Head) Likely IN
Rhamondre Stevenson (Head) IN
Damien Harris (Head) OUT
Clyde Edwards-Heliare Likely OUT
Devontae Booker (Hip) On Bye Week 10
Saquon Barkley (ankle) Expected Back Week 11
Miles Sanders (ankle) On IR for one more Week
Latavius Murray (ankle) Missed Week 10
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods (Knee) TORN ACL; OUT for Season
Odell Beckham Jr. (SIGNED WITH LAR) Likely IN
Chase Claypool (toe) OUT
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT at Least 2 More Weeks
Antonio Brown (ankle) OUT
Curtis Samuel (groin) OUT
Rondale Moore (concussion/neck) Likely IN
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) Likely OUT
Chris Godwin (Foot) Likely IN
Julio Jones (Hamstring) OUT; Placed on IR
Dyami Brown (knee) IN
Michael Gallup (calf) Likely IN
AJ Green (COVID LIST) Likely IN
TY Hilton (Concussion) IN
Corey Davis (hip) IN
Allen Robinson (hamstring) On Bye
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) Bye Week 10
Will Fuller (finger) Missed Week 10
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger (COVID LIST) OUT
Kyler Murray (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Russell Wilson (Hand) IN
Trevor Lawrence (Ankle) IN
Aaron Rodgers (COVID) Will Start
Trevor Siemien Will Start
Mike White (hand) Will Start vs BUF
Sam Darnold (Shoulder) OUT; Expected to Miss Multiple Weeks
Cam Newton Signed with CAR; Unlikely to Play
Zach Wilson (knee) OUT
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) OUT
Logan Thomas (Hamstring) OUT
Jonnu Smith (Shoulder) OUT
Albert Okwuegbunam (Hamstring) IN
Dawson Knox (Hand) IN
Eric Ebron (hamstring) IN
Noah Fant (COVID LIST) IN
Pharaoh Brown (thigh) ON BYE
WEEK 10 GALAXY BRAIN: Chalk Allergy
WATCH: Week 10 DraftKings Picks — MAIN SLATE
Entering the millionaire maker is a –EV move for just about everyone, but damn it if that’s going to stop me from trying. To that end, it’s hard enough to get things right and I’m not mentally strong enough to deal with hitting the perfect lineup and having to split it with someone. Or multiple someones. We are still a day away, but Week 10 very much looks like a chance to win by not losing.
What?
You read that right. Anything can happen in the NFL. Hell, the Dolphins dominated the Ravens just two days ago. So … whataya say we fade ALL of the chalk spots this week?
Diontae Johnson ($6,800), James Conner ($6,300), D’Ernest Johnson ($4,700), Devin Singletary ($4,700) and Mark Ingram ($4,500)
They all profile as great per dollar plays given a variety of moving roster pieces around them that were not accounted for when DK released their pricing. They are all in better spots than they are priced … but that doesn’t mean they are LOCKS to cash in. Because no one ever is a lock. I’d guess that by fading all five of them gives you a unique lineup and fading four of them might accomplish the same goal. And I’m greedy, so I’m all about that and here’s how you can make that happen:
NFL TOOLS: OPTIMIZER, PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR
Instead of spending around $11,000 on James Conner and another value back, I’m spending $10,800 on Michael Carter and JD McKissic. By keeping the total price in the same range as the “obvious” guys, you get off of major ownership and guess what? They are actually good plays, not just random contrarian dart throws.
Carter: Over the past 720 days, just three players have had a game with 15 carries, 10 targets and 150 total yards: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Michael Carter. Magic Mike White aided that crazy game in his first career start and he’s starting this week against a Bills defense that allows the 6th most yards per RB reception. The Jets have literally nothing to play for other than developing young talent: this is about as cheap as you can get a player with a very real path to 20 touches.
McKissic: I mean, he has 12 more catches than Antonio Gibson has targets this season, and yet, because of the value at the RB position, I can’t imagine he’s popular. McKissic is averaging 10.4 third down snaps per game. Averaging. Gibson has been on the field for 15 third down snaps. This season. McKissic has 20 catches (24 targets) over his past 3 games and if that usage continues, he could well pay off this price tag without a score. If he finds the end zone in garbage time … he’s going to be as valuable as any of the popular backs.
Not sold on a complete fade of the chalk backs yet? I get it. It’s a thin line, but it’s so rare that we have this clear of a picture of what the field is going to be doing, that I’m willing to burn one lineup on the first chaotic week since … last week. Numbers are weapons, so I’ll use them to defend my theory:
D’Ernest Johnson: Both of these offenses are bottom-10 in pace over the past month and the only RBs to score even 17 DK points against the Patriots this season are elite talents (Ekeler, Kamara and Elliott). Did Johnson impress in his only high usage game this season? Yes, but we are still talking about a player with 74 career carries facing a Belichick defense that is well aware that all Cleveland wants to do is run the ball.
James Conner: I sift through thousands of stats on hundreds of players and yet this one might be the weirdest. There are 47 qualified running backs and somehow, behind the same offensive line, Chase Edmonds ranks 1st in yards per carry before contact and Conner ranks 43rd. Like, what? Is it possible that James Conner is a professional forward faller and not a great back? The Panthers allow running backs to score on 2.1% of carries (6th lowest).
Devin Singletary: What were you doing in mid-September? Don’t remember? Me either. That was the last time Singletary had a touch gaining more than 15 yards. Sure, the absence of Zack Moss was going to open up a role, but outside of last week, Singletary’s upside as a pass catcher has never been clear and his explosion simply hasn’t been there for now two months. And now Moss is playing. These divisional games can get wonky and the Jets might be frisky with Magic Mike back under center. If New York keeps it close, Buffalo will go with their strength: passing. If Buffalo is up big, it’s likely because of their passing. In either game script, Michael Carter is in a good spot, but I don’t expect the roster percentages to suggest as much.
Mark Ingram: Worst. Place. Maybe a 31-year-old in a offense that can’t really threaten defenses through the air shouldn’t be chalk? I get the idea in him, but I don’t think there are a ton of possessions in this game and I’m not thinking New Orleans uses him as if he’s Alvin Kamara. That price is pretty fucking good tho
Diontae Johnson is a great player and with the lack of health around him, he deserves to be popular. That said, you need receiver scores to cash in these big tourney’s, so I’d rather not bet on Ben Roethlisberger and his 10 TD passes in 8 games. I have Johnson and Mike Evans both as top-10 receivers this week for season long, but if we are chasing ceiling performances, give me the guy with the higher touchdown equity over the higher yardage projection.
There you go. A reasonable approach, supported by statistics to support a lineup that is likely to be as unique as any. This is a full build of early games, so if you’re unwilling to go for the main slate, play it in a smaller buy-in early window GPP. It’s a weird week and I’m leveraging it by fading where we know the public is going to be.
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP GUESSES
PLAY: Week 10 DraftKings Listeners League (RAKE FREE)
QB
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert
Dak Presscott
RB
D’Ernest Johnson
Najee Harris
Jonathan Taylor
Mark Ingram
WR
Diontae Johnson
Keenan Allen
Michael Pittman
Davante Adams
TE
Kyle Pitts
Dallas Goedert
Pat Freiermuth
DST
Bills
Cardinals
Based off this, expect a A LOT of Bills stacks, DAL/ATL Game stacks, and LAC/MIN stacks with D’Ernest Johnson and Mark Ingram plugged in to save money. All Steelers are expected to be popular, except for the QB it seems.
So, if you’re a BIG FAN of losing cash. Start your lineups with Mason Rudolph, Diontae, FIREMOUTH and bring it back with Swift. It was cheap when it was Ben in the Rudolph spot, but now it’s $1,500 less, and is there really THAT big of a drop? Odds makers don’t think so. The game went from PIT -8 to PIT -6.5. That’s less than from Tua to Brissett.
I’m excited to see the harm this does to my bankroll. I may never financially recover.
For RB pivots, it appears early week James Conner buzz has dissipated, while an expected to be active James Robinson will go VERY under owned. From the bottom end, Brandon Bolden (if Harris and Stevenson are inactive) looks like the cheap pivot if you want to be somewhat different.
WEEK 10 BETS
Me, Cam, and Pizzola have our best bets again this week. Cam and Rob coming off of 3-0 weeks a piece too. I need to catch up.
WATCH: Week 10 Best Bets
Week 10 SPREAD PICKS & CUST CORNER
Get the early release link every week in the Tuesday Newsletter btw
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WEEK 10 CHEATSHEET
— PM