Week 1 Updates, Cheatsheets, Injuries, Projections
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Week 1 Rankings (UPDATED)
Running Back Rankings https://bit.ly/23Week1RBs
Wide Receiver Rankings https://bit.ly/23Week1WRs
Quarterback Rankings https://bit.ly/23Week1QBs
Tight End/DST Rankings https://bit.ly/23Week1TEDSTs
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Week 1 Injuries (Sunday Update)
Rhamondre Stevenson (sick) & DeVante Parker (Kneee) — Rhamondre Friday with an illness. Expected to play. Parker is expected OUT. Here’s how teh NE receiving corps shakes out now
De’Von Achane - OUT
Mark Andrews (Quad) — Thought he was fine after he returned to limited practice during the week. NOPE. Andrews is out and Isaiah Likely is starting. Unless there’s a move made before the game, Charlie Kolar is the only other TE present on the Ravens at the moment so it could be a giant breakout for Likely. He’s 3K on DraftKings, that’s a good play if I do say so. In the weekly rankings he’s now TE5 for Week 1, and the projections love him. More than Zay Flowers as a pass catcher vs HOU.
Christian Watson (Hamstring) & Romeo Doubs (Hamstring) — Watson is OUT. Doubs expected to be active but limited in snaps. Plus, like all hamstrings, since it’s not 100% healthy, he opens himself up for reaggravation, then missing extended time. With Doubs banged up and Watson OUT, the rooks looking like volume hogs against CHI — Jayden Reed & Luke Musgrave. That, or lotsa running vs a terrible Bears Run D. It’s going to be fun to see people freak out (myself included) when I have Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, Samori Toure or Malik Heath ends up in the endzone. Doubs drops in the ranks to WR73; he’s like Lenny from Memento, does’t believe his lies. Reed gets the big bump to WR36; I’ll go down with this ship in Week 1.
Darren Waller (Hamstring) — Appears like he’ll play, but if you’re relying on him at TE, because it’s SNF, make sure to have a back up plan in place in case he’s a last second inactive. Ferguson, Knox, or Kincaid are all viable replacement options.
Zach Ertz (Knee) — Practicing on a limited basis returning from ACL surgery. Chance he could play and take any value Trey McBride has with him.
Terry McLaurin (Toe) — Week 1 was doubt until he was magically taken off the injury report Friday. He’s playing. Dotson drops to WR28 (From 21), while TMcL is back in at WR31
Kendre Miller (Hamstring) — OUT. Expect it to be ALL Jamaal Williams all game. Now, watch stupid Taysom steal TDs. Stupid Taysom. Kirk Merritt should act as the back RB to Williams if Miller sits. Or may be it’s Tony Jones Jr. Or Maybe you shouldn’t care. Williams at RB14 this week.
Jerry Jeudy (Hamstring) & Javonte Williams (Knee) — Jeudy not expected to play. Since this is in the late set of afternoon games, you can’t even wait for the actives/inactives for a replacement option since you want the full slate to close from.. Obviously, Sutton WR33 gets a bump, as does everyone’s favorite cheap DraftKings WR, Marvin Mims WR53. Adam Trautman becomes a viable TE punt play at 2.5K on DK as well. With the news Javonte may be on a pitch count he drops to RB27 while Perine rises to RB32. Both flex plays if you need them. Hopefully you don’t.
Joe Burrow (Calf) — Playing. Don’t expect him to rush for 200 yards.
Hollywood Brown (Hamstring) — Here we gooooooooooooo. Limited all week in practice but still expected to play in Washington. Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore, Human Dortch, and Zach Pascal (yes, he’s on this team), would all get run of Hollywood is out. Its’s too bad this talented group is going to be responsible for getting Caleb Williams to Phoenix yet won’t last long enough on the roster to catch passes from him.
Dare Ogunbowale (Hamstring) — Gotta start wearing a mask on your hammy top avoid this thing that’s going around. This doesn’t sound like much at all since D.A.R.E. spends most his time on spacial teams or telling you not to do drugs, but he does occupy a lot of 3rd downs for the Texans offense. If he sits, just mean more snaps (and potential targets) for Pearce. John Metchie (hamstring) is OUT for HOU.
Ken Walker (Groin) — Was ready to insert the Hans Moleman (or George C. Scott) GIF but the bullet has been dodged. Walker was removed from the injured report after the Thursday scare.
Cooper Kupp (Hamstring) — OUT for Week 1, and there’s the potential he could land on IR. Eleanor Higbee and Van Jefferson likely to see the bump in targets, but I’m just holding out hope it’s my guy PUKA.
DJ Chark (hamstring) —OUT for Week 1.
Adam Thielen (Ankle) — returned to practice Friday so he’s likely in. If Thielen can’t go Carolina would be down to Alanis Marsette, Terrace Marshall, and IT’S A MINGO for Week 1. Tough scene when you don’t own your first round pick next year. Expect a lot of Hayden Hurst.
Ju-Ju Smith Schuster (Knee) — Knee “could explode at any point.” But it hasn’t yet, so he’s gtg Week 1.
Rhamondre Stevenson (sick) — Missed Friday with an illness. Expected to play.
George Kittle (Adductor Strain) — Still hasn’t had a full team practice since mid-August. Limited all week. Expected to play.
Breece Hall (Knee) — Playing in Week 1
Javonte Williams (Knee) — Playing in Week 1. Will play “Big Role” accordion got Sean Payton. Just play, Javonte. And we’ll go from there.
Zach Moss (Forearm) — Ruled OUT. Here’s what the sims have for Hull vs Jackson vs JAX. Don’t worry about that ownershi, it’s for DK JAX/IND showdown.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Wrist) — Looks like he’s going to play vs LAR
De’Von Achane (Shoulder) — Returned to practice for the Dolphins. Now listed as RB3 behind Col. Mostert and Ahmed.
Week 1 DraftKings Notes
Last season, 25 times did a double stack hit 75 PPR points
- 12x did the QB throw a pick in that game
- Majority of times saw the QB run for 25 yards or score on the ground
- 47 of those 50 pass catchers had either a TD or 120 yards
- 72% of those stacks were WR-WR
- The pass catchers averaged 15.3 catches per game
- 80% of these double stacks won their game
CHALK: Week 1 Double Stack: Justin Herbert - Mike Williams - Keenan Allen
--> Kellen Moore's aggression, a pick from Herbert is possible
--> Herbert: 2.4 FPPG with his legs for his career (some upside)
--> Keenan Allen was on a career pace in catches last season (Williams showed volume potential: 6+ grabs in 6 of 13 games last season)
--> Mike Williams: some slot potential in this Moore offense
TD on over 10% of his career receptions
--> Last 5 games together: 17.4 targets per game (and that was without Moore)
--> LAC is a 3-point favorite
Here’s what the best Double Stack projected double stack linueps look like
And here’s what they look like with a double Dolphins bring back…
Other players ...
Chris Olave
--> Priced as WR15 (slate without Amon-Ra, Lamb, Diggs or Garrett Wilson) is just wrong
--> 5 straight games early last season with 13+ targets OR a touchdown
Darnell Mooney
--> Top 30 percentile aDOT since entering the league
--> GB coughed up nearly 17 yards per deep pass
--> $300 cheaper than a guy like JuJu who offers no real upside
Low 4k range for TEs
--> Gerald Everett (if you don't go the LAC stack, total in the 50's, TD in his last 3 games)
--> David Njoku: Potential need for points vs CIN, 6 targets/game with Watson
Geno Smith ($6,100) and Deshaun Watson ($6,000)
--> JSN is going to play, Geno facing a terrible defense after leading the league in CMP%
--> Geno lit up the Rams last December (367 pass yards and 3 TDs)
--> Watson had 48 opportunities (passes + rushes) vs CIN last season. Weapons are strong (3 WRs)
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TNF FREE TOOLS
We’ve decided
DIFFERENT WEEK 1 SIMS
Using the different settings at Run the Sims shows off four ways to look at your linueps in Week 1
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Projections Based: Decent for Cash Games
Optimal Rate Based
Boom Rate Based
Pat Jamming in as many Vikings & Bucs as possible Based
Week 1 DraftKings Chalk, Optimals, Second Half DK
Tambo & I talked through our favorite builds and cheap players on the show Friday. So, watch that…
WATCH: WEEK 1 DRAFTKINGS PICKS
But Justin Freeman released this handy cheatsheet to guide you quickly this weekend. Obviously, he’ll update these Sunday morning when we have a better sense of the ownership, but this is a good launching point…
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And shout out to Justin for joining me for the TNF DK Showdown and strategy show last week, we talked about how soft second half showdown contests are on DraftKings, and the Run The Sims tools came through in the opener for him. And me too, to a much lesser extent.
Now, second half showdown prize pools are normally pretty small, but for SNF this week there’s already a 10K to 1st; $10 contest posted…
10% DISCOUNT ON RUN THE SIMS TOOLS: SIMS, OPTO, PROJECTIONS, RESEARCH TOOLS, CONTEST SIMS
— PM