Week 1 Starts, Research, Injuries, DK Plays

+ Prop Contest & Week 1 Spread Picks Advanced Viewing

Come play with Mayo, Geoff, Cust, and everyone else on MMN + YOU the viewers in the…

THE MAYO MEDIA NETWORK PROPS CONTEST — 7/11 Challenge

If you have a Prize Picks account already, you’re good to go. Just play the $7.11 entry each week to be in the contest.

If not, Sign up for Prize Picks using code MMN or this link http://bit.ly/PrizePicksMMN and get a match deposit match up to $100. It will cost $7.11 each week to submit an entry of 5 over/unders (any NFL ones you want that aren’t on Monday Night), but with the match deposit of up to $100 with our link and/or code at deposit, if you simply deposit $65, you’ll get matched $65 and have everything you need for the year.

There are weekly $50 bonuses for all five picks correct (on top of your 10x win from your entry) and a season leaderboard with promo pay outs after Week 18. 

1st — $3000
2nd — $1500
3rd — $1000
4th — $500
5th — $250

There is also a $100 dollar bonus for the person who comes exactly in the middle, and another $100 for the person who comes dead fucking last. In order to qualify for those, you’ll have to make an entry all 18 Weeks of the season. 

You only get one entry per week, and the leaderboard will update on Monday nights. And your 5 Pick entry must be for $7.11 each week. That’s how they’ll be tracking it. It’s gonna be a ton of fun… until you end up losing to Cust. 

Week 1

PROPS + Tools

Need a leg up against the books and your DFS opposition this year? Then you’re best to RUN THE SIMSSSSS

Twitter avatar for @ThePMEPat Mayo @ThePME
There are now monthly memberships available at @RunTheSims
runthesims.com/mayo/ Customizable Game Sims ✅ DFS Optimizer ✅ Advanced Stats Hub ✅ Bankroll Tracker ✅ Showdown Optimizer ✅ Player Prop Betting Projections ✅ Figure out if the bets actually match the vig ImageImage

There are free tools like the Advanced Stats hub for play-level research, but if you want the premium tools here’s 10% off the monthly and season packages.

Find out more about the tools and how to use them here.

Season Long Players

Lamar Jackson opens the season with 3 of his first 4 games on the road, all of which come against defenses that ranked bottom 10 vs fantasy QBs (Raiders, Lions and Broncos) last season 4 of Jackson’s best 5 fantasy games of his career have come on the road

Justin Herbert is the only active QB that threw for 300 yards in three straight road games as a rookie. Those were his last three road games. He puts that streak to the test on Sunday against maybe the best defense the league has to offer in Washington.

Subscribers to this newsletter are from all different time zones. One time zone we can all gather in is the oddly specific stat. “Sleepers” no longer exist and no take is truly “hot”. But you came here for interesting and that is what MMN will give you once a week. Enter the MMN time zone, one that we are labeling GBT … Galaxy Brain Time.

Week 1 RANKINGS LISTS

Ranks Debate With Jake Ciely
RB bit.ly/21W1RBRanks
WR bit.ly/21W1WRRanks
QB bit.ly/21W1QBRanks
TE/DST bit.ly/21W1TEDSTRanks

Galaxy Brain Time … The Rams could be a team to watch early on and potentially sell. Sean McVay’s offenses haven’t aged well in the past:

Maybe flip them for Steelers? Roethlisberger during his career

Games 1-3 in a season: 15 FPPG
Games 4-16: 16.7 FPPG (an 11.3% increase)

And take it for what it’s worth, but based on fantasy points allowed last season, the Steelers have the 7th friendliest schedule for opposing quarterbacks over the final four weeks of the regular season

CASH GIVEAWAY

GIVEAWAY CHECK LIST

  1. Apple Review & Sub: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes

  2. Join Newsletter

    Subscribe now

  3. Sub to MMN YouTube: https://bit.ly/YTMMN

The pool is at $1000 right now. The more reviews and subs we get, the higher the prize pool goes.

Thinking about NFL Betting?

Last year, Rob Pizzola and I sat down and went over the dos and don’ts of NFL betting, along with betting strategy for the year. It’s one of my favorite (and, frankly, most helpful) shows. I think you’ll dig it.

DraftKings Players

#LetRyanCook? In home games with the Titans in which he’s hit at least 30 opportunities (pass + rush attempts), Ryan Tannehill is averaging nearly 280 passing yards, 25.4 FP PPG and 26.5 DK PPG. He faces a Kingsbury led Cardinals team this weekend that ranks bottom-5 in both opponent attempts and completions since he took over the reign in 2019.

(2021 DraftKings Strategy, Tips & Traps Show)

The best 8 games of Robby Anderson’s career have come at home and the most recent of those games was Week 1 last season (6 catches for 114 yards and a TD against the Raiders). He’s at home on Sunday … against the Jets. Yep, that’ll work!

Galaxy Brain Time … How important is it to stay in the pocket?

Top 5 who saw their fantasy efficiency increase by the most last season when in the pocket compared to out of it

*Kyler faces a Titans team that created pressure at the 6th lowest rate last season. This isn’t a new problem for Tennessee (7th lowest pressure rate over the past three seasons) and they did use five picks to address the defense this year, but how quick can they make an impact? A big Kyler game could come out of the gates- and I think it’s very possible Rondale Moore is leading my waiver wire column on Tuesday.

Bottom 5 in terms of fantasy efficiency increase difference from in/out of the pocket

*Cousins plays a Bengals team that created pressure at the 2nd lowest rate last season. Among qualifiers, only Aaron Rodgers averaged more points per pocket pass attempt than Cousins. I’m assuming Cincy won’t move quarterbacks off of their spot until I see something change … so Cousins is still a live DFS option for contrarian lineups

Fantasy Football Picks and Bets

The NEW show on MMN is now daily in both video and podcast versions.

Week 1 already has Pete Overzet’s DraftKings Research show, along with Lauren Carpenter’s Week 1 Pickups, Injuries & Streams.

Be a pal and sub to the show.

Video https://bit.ly/YTMMN
Apple: bit.ly/NFLPBApple
Spotify: bit.ly/NFLPBSpot
Google: bit.ly/NFLPBGoogle

WEEK 1 SPREAD PICKS

The Week 1 Picks show will be available Tuesday morning (unless you want to click here and get it NOW), but in season it will be dropping Wednesday mornings.

In fact, here’s the entire PME Schedule for the year

Here’s where to subscribe

Video https://bit.ly/YTMMN
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes 
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

TNF + DK Same Game Parlay Stats

Injuries

  • Week 9-17 was when the Bucs had their Big 3 receivers

  • Over that stretch, Brady threw for 300+ yards 5 times (his over/under isn’t set, but 300 is a fine starting points)

  • In those 5 games, Chris Godwin went over 80 receiving yards 4 times (the same number as Mike Evans and Antonio Brown COMBINED)

  • Godwin caught 78% of his targets in those games (Evans and Brown: 69%)

  • In those games, TB averaged 38.4 points

  •  So, the numbers from last season suggest that a the over in all of the following could be a strong play: Brady Passing Yards, Chris Godwin Receiving Yards And Buccaneers Points

There’s also a GIANT DraftKings slate, including a $1M top prize contest for the NFL opener. When Justin Freeman and I put together Run The Sims, a lot of it was based on how well his tools worked for single-game showdown. Here’s the showdown tool

As you can see, all these fields are completely customizable to what you think is going to happen in the game. Once you have everything set, you RUN THE SIMS (10,000 sims. Very quick, I must add) and it will spit out the optimal lineups from the parameters YOU SET. I just wanted to see in this run what would happen if Gallup does the best of the Dallas WRs.

This won’t be my final run through, as I need to find a way to take advantage of the the TB players, considering I think they’re going to win the game, but it was run to see my optimal lineups

and the player projections for the game.

AGAIN, here’s 10% off the monthly and season packages.

CUST CORNER

Oh, a NEWWW Cust Corner dropped Monday morning. Watch it. Or listen. Either works.

Week 1 NFL INJURIES

As of Monday night, here’s who you should be watching out for this Sunday