Week 1 Ranks, Injuries, Plays & Fade
+ Extra Research, Free Money & Cheatsheets
7/11 MMN PROPS
LAST CHANCE to play in the Season Long 7/11 Props contest. I’ll make it quick and easy for ya.
Make an Entry of any 5 NFL over/unders available (NO MNF tho) and make it for $7.11. That $7.11 notifies Prize Picks that it’s an entry for the MMN contest.
That’s all you gotta do. If you have a PP account already just play the $7.11 entry and you’re in.
This is perfect for people who don’t have access to sports betting in their state and wanna get in on some action as Prize Picks is available in over half of states and all of Canada.
OHHHHHHH there’s an absolute freebie Week 1 if you want it. (I don’t know how you couldn’t tbh.
I’ll take the OVER of 0.5 passing yards. But that’s me.
There’s 3K up for GRABS to the winner. Even some for the loser. Here are the full deets if you wanna know. Remember to sign up here.
WEEK 1 REMINDER
Whether it’s DraftKings, your fav sports book or DFS site, or even favorite tools and content site, Week 1 every year presents issues for servers on these sites. I’ve been at places where we’ve ensured we have enough server space to handle all the traffic, but one oddly timed spike can crash the house of cards and send the tech team scrambling. It sucks, but that’s the reality. So prepare yourself in advance with your DK lineups, bets, season long leagues, etc so you aren’t scrambling 30 mins before lock constantly hitting refresh then taking to Twitter to whine about it, thus making you look like world’s biggest Jabroni as you knew this was coming. Hopefully it doesn’t, but there’s ben a blackout period at spots almost every Week 1 since DFS started becoming popular.
WEEK 1 INJURIES
I went over the Fantasy Spin of the injuries on Friday Night’s show, but here’s a game-by-game cheatsheet of the Fantasy Injuries to worry (or not) about
If you’re looking for the RANKS, they’re here
MAKE NFL EASY
You gotta pay for the premium tools at Run The Sims like the Optimizer, custom game simulator, betting simulations vs odds comparison, (here a discount link btw), but the Advanced Stats hub is FREEEEEE all season long. If you like doing your own research by digging as deep as play-level data, you’ll want to give a whirl.
Searches like this is are made quite easy.
DRAFTKINGS & PLAYER NOTES
FYI: The PME Listener’s League will be full by Sunday morning, so here’s the link so you don’t miss it.
Josh Allen vs. Steelers
The Steelers were the only defense to not allow a 3-TD pass game last season. So if we take for granted that Josh Allen isn’t breaking the slate with his arm, do we think he pays off his salary?
Late season usage last season would suggest it’s a stretch. Over the final 5 weeks of last season, Allen averaged 4.2 rushes per game (season prior: 7.4) and ran for a score in just one of those games (season prior: 6-of-11). His air yards spiked over those final 5 weeks, too. Maybe it’s something, maybe not, but that hints that he is trying to get hit less and let his WR work downfield. Good move for season-long players, but it has the potential to limit his DK upside. Could very well be an outlier small sample but I thought it was interesting.
PIT was the only team that didn’t allow 3-TD passes in a game last season.
Maybe it’s something, maybe it’s nothing … but Allen’s splits
Weeks 13-17: 9.4 air yards per attempt and 14.7% of passes traveled 20+ yards in the air
4.2 rushes per game, 8.8 passes per rush attempt, rush TD in 1 of 5 games
Weeks 1-12: 7.7 air yards per attempt and 10.6% of passes traveled 20+ yards in the air
7.4 rushes per game, 4.8 passes per rush attempt, rush TD in 6 of 11 games
On DraftKings, Allen is projected to be highest owned QB on the main slate. Nothing crazy however, in the 10-15% range.
Chris Carson at Colts
Hot startin’ Chris Carson! Two of his top five games over the past two seasons have come in Week 1, with two of his three top receiving games over that stretch also coming in Week 1. The increased role in the pass game clearly is the cause of those spike Week 1s, so it’s encouraging that Carson’s passing game usage last season allowed him to increase his PPR fantasy points per touch by over 39% from his career average.
Carson averaged 39.4% more points per touch last season than his career prior thanks to an increase in passing game involvement
IND allowed opponents to complete 81.3% of RB targets last season (4th highest)
Since the beginning of 2019 … 2 of Carson’s best 5 games have come in Week 1 and 2 of his 3 most involved efforts in the pass game came in Week 1.
Parris Campbell vs Seahawks
He only ran 39 routes last season, but 37 came in the slot. Why does that matter? The Seahawks were the only defense to allow over 130 slot receptions a year ago … they allowed 157. It was a while ago, but back in 2017, Carson Wentz led the league in slot pass TD despite missing 3 games. Important things that tie 2017 and 2021 together … both involved the release of another Fast and Furious movie, Jordan Spieth cashed a 7-figure paycheck at The Open and Frank Reich was Wentz’ head coach.
95% of Campbell’s limited routes in 2020 came in the slot (35 of 37)
Wentz led the league in slot TD passes in his last season with Reich
SEA allowed a league-high 157 slot catches last season
Ja’Marr Chase vs Vikings
The Vikings revamped their defense, so looking at 2020 numbers can be a bit dangerous. That said, they shut down the slot last season and made that even strong this offseason … that’s where Tyler Boyd lives.
If you’re buying the dip on Chase, this could be a spot to look smarter than the field (his roster percentage is going to be as low this week as you could hope for, he’s priced ahead of Tee Higgins on a full slate). Over 56% of Chase’s points at LSU in 2019 came on deep passes, which is note worthy given that his QB that season is the same one responsible for getting him the ball on Sunday.
56.4% of Chase’s points in 2019 from Burrow came via the deep pass
MIN was 3rd worst in opponent deep CMP% last season (things have changed, but that’s a big shift to make)
I get is terrifying to use Chase after the yips from the preseason, but if he’s any way right, this is about as low as you’ll ever see him owned on DraftKings (2-3% on main slate)
DK ownership guesses
PROP — Austin Ekeler OVER 64.5 scrimmage yards
Ekeler is banged up, but c’mon … a DNP bet get voided? So the risk is, just betting on him to make it through the game. And after Friday, he sounds like he’s good to go.
Using the Run The Sims prop range finder, here’s what Eleker looks like even against a stout WSH D…
GIVEAWAY CHECK LIST
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Pool at $1000 right now.
If you like the weekly Spread Picks show with Cust and Fienberg, it now as a sister show on Friday’s with pro bettor Rob Pizzola and CAM FUCKING STEWART!!!!
We’re giving out our GOLD, SILVER, and BRONZE bets of the week. But really, like the spread show, it’s really just a fun watch/listen.
If you care about the picks (weird), here’s what we went with
Kamara is my fav play on DK this week, mainly because of his receiving expectation, and it’s at plus money. I had to RUN THE SIMS to make sure I wasn’t crazy on this one. It’s one of the biggest differences between implied odds and actual odds of all props this week.
Some of these may or may not some of my Prize Picks in the Props Contest too.
And if you’re curious about our picks (again, why?) from the spread picks show, here ya go.