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Collin Morikawa — It’s funny how different perceptions can be applied to results. Morikawa’s played in two events this year and each has come with its own share of disappointment. He’s come 2nd and 3rd in those two starts. Obviously, the chipping is likely to be an issue, per usual, and the putter can always go frigid, but the elite ball striking has returned. And, as we’ve witnessed in the past, Phoenix is where bad putters can excel.
Justin Thomas — Picking between the elites this week may just come down to sheer luck. They all look like amazing plays on paper. But the price discount on Thomas from the very top of board is enough to suck me in. JT has the best Phoenix record without a win, yes even better than Rahm. The discount comes from his slow start to 2023. He was pretty lackluster at Kapalua; looked fine at Torrey but wilted each day. In those two starts, it’s been the driver giving him issues. It was the first time he lost strokes off the tee in consecutive events since the beginning of 2021. It was 2017 before that. Seems pretty fixable for him.
Sam Burns — There’s no real form to point to, but the number is just too large to ignore. With four wins in the past two seasons, Burns has the ability to put together victories from left field, and this number is long enough to back with that sort of chance.
DFS
Run the Sims is FREE (by signing up for a free account) for Super Bowl. So generate, projection, and sim KC/PHI as many ways as you like. And, I get it, XFL and USFL are pretty stupid. But, as I found out last year with the USFL, if you have good projections, you can smash the DFS and Props market. I’d expect relatively large prize pools on DK to kick off XFL so the first month is the kicker. I have no better ROI in any sport ever than USFL last year and I never watch a second. Just ran the sims and collected my cash. I know Justin is already grinding edges on the rosters to make the projections as good as possible.
SUPER BOWL
WATCH: Super Bowl Picks, Props + Cust Corner
Backing the Chiefs?
The Eagles enter Super Bowl LVII having been favored in 18 of 19 games this season. They’ve earned it. They opened the season with eight straight wins (six of which came by at least eight points) and have looked great with a pair of playoff wins after earning the NFC’s top seed. Being favored is great, but that assures you of nothing in terms of Super Bowl betting. In fact, it’s damning. Does them consistently being favored result in more public love and thus a Super Bowl line that is a bit high? That is for you to decide over the next two weeks. Here are the seven instances in which a team entered the Super Bowl, since 2000, being an underdog no more than once entering The Big Game (excluding instances in 2013 and 2018 when both Super Bowl participants checked this box):
Backing the Eagles?
If you’re exploring SGP options and like the Eagles, here are a few things to be aware of:
Exclude Week 18 … Hurts has multiple TD passes AND a rush TD in 3 of Philly’s past 5 wins (in his starts)
AJ Brown has run 25+ routes in 7 Eagle covers this season … he has scored in 6 of them (9 TDs across those 7 games)
Under 50 rushing yards in 5 of Philly’s past 7 wins for Miles Sanders
Only twice this season has a team failed to cover vs PHI and seen their QB throw multiple TD passes
Only twice this season has a player had 70+ receiving yards in a game vs the Eagles in which their team failed to cover
PGA DRAFTKINGS
I did the walk through on the Sunday research show, and these are the Top players (24 rounds) in my key stats. Make your own at FN btw.
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The Tidbits
Tambo is BACK, and he’s got the best of FREE content from around DFS Twitter this week…
WMPO DK NOTES
WATCH: WMPO DK PICKS, BETS, ONE & DONE
*The tippy top of the board has been reserved for the elite, so you don’t want to fully fade the top guys, but this is a tournament that has seen plenty of cheaper options pay off in a big way. There will be time for balance builds, but last week didn’t project as one and neither does this.
2022: Each of the top-3 scorers cost you north of $9,000
13 players scored 91+ DK points … 5 of them were sub-$7,000
2021: The top-2 scorers cost at least $8,800, but the next six all cost under $8,000 (four of them under $7,000)
2020: The top-3 scorers were all top-12 in pricing ($9,000+), but the next four were all sub-$7,500
2019: Five of the top-6 finishers on the DK leaderboard cost you at least $8,700. Each of the top-5 in DK pricing finished top-15 on the final leaderboard
2018: The average cost of the top-7 finishers on the DK scoring leaderboard was just over $7,400 (included a pair of sub-$7,000 players in Chesson Hadley and Martin Laird)
— PM