Valspar BETS & NCAA PICKS
+ DK Ownership and Course Tid Bits
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2022 VALSPAR BETS
Jason Kokrak — While Kokrak’s driver has begun to bleed strokes, his around the green game has recently become far less of a liability. That’s a worthy exchange at Copperhead since many holes require clubbing down off the tee. At least this is what I’m telling myself. Frankly, I’ll trade back Kokrak’s recent surge with the chipping (which has merely been to average levels btw, not Mac Hughes levels) if the former driving numbers come back.
Gary Woodland — It’s been a lot of golf for Gary lately, and that may have caught up with him after a length delay at Sawgrass. But when I was circling the return to glory for Woodland in the preseason, this was the event. He’s posted two Top 5 finishes already in Florida this year. A repeat win at Copperhead more than a decade after the fact seems plausible.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout — As a glutton for punishment, I’ll be going back to Bezuidenhout once again. Eventually his once famous hot putter will resurface, right? RIGHT???? Even so, his usual driving woes will be somewhat mitigated at a course which puts an emphasis on accuracy over distance, which always plays perfectly into the South African’s skill set.
VALSPAR CONTENT HUB
Picks and Bets w/ Feinberg
DraftKings Picks w/ Reid Fowler
Reserach Show
DK Cheatsheet
The rest of the golf research is at the bottom, but we have some intensive March Madness info to get to you first.
MARCH MADNESS
Did you miss the Bracket Show? Rectify that mistake NOW!!!
WATCH: 2022 March Maddness Bracket Picks
Here’s what I came up with. (I went with Miami over USC btw)
But I don’t actually know anything, so I’ll clear the lane for someone who. actually knows.
NCAA BETS AND PREDICTIONS
It’s. Time.
Now that we have a bracket in our hands, it’s go time. This isn’t a Wordle puzzle that allows multiple guesses, eliminates and gives you the option of posting your results on social media if you had success. Sure, this is a puzzle of sorts, but without any protection. We have a second chance bracket game, but your office pool and your integrity rest in the hands of that initial bracket. That bracket you hem and haw over. The one you lose sleep over. The one that is the greatest combination of savvy, stress and second-guessing.
So where do we begin? Where do we end? How do we mitigate risk while looking to be the smartest person in the room that nails the upset special(s)? Truth be told, I have no idea. What I can do, however, is the legwork: watch the games, evaluate the trends and offer statistically sound opinions. Most importantly, I give you someone to blame if things go sideways. I’m about to walk you through my entire process. A process that starts in December and doesn’t end until a champion is crowned. Take what you want. Fade what you want. Either way, let me know what you think and feel free to interact as we navigate the highlight of the sporting calendar. Now … it’s time!
How to read:
ATS: xxxxxx (my pick ATS in the first round given the opening line)
Example: Gonzaga (by 36.1) – this means I have Gonzaga winning the game TO GET TO THIS GAME by 36.1 points
These picks are where my numbers land. Will I use it to guide me and drive my personal bracket? You bet, but this won’t 100% be my final submission. Pay attention to the win equity charts with every region: it’s just as important to get to the game as it is to win it!
Final Four Odds
Gonzaga 42.8%
Duke 23.6%
Vermont 8.2%
Notre Dame 2.5%
Round 1 Picks ATS (still some spreads yet to open)
Duke (-18) over CSU Fullerton
You know what beats a bottom-10 defense in this field? One of the most statistically sound offenses going. Beats them into the ground. And if that doesn’t work, Fullerton doesn’t work to get good looks of their own on the offensive end. They would need to flip the script on both of those narratives to think about covering … don’t think it happens
Vermont (+5.5) over Arkansas
Betting on game plan here. Arkansas is defensive oriented that pushes tempo, Vermont is the exact opposite: an efficient offense that wants to limit the number of possessions. Normally I’d bet on the favorite dictating pace, but against one of the most experienced rosters in D-I … NOT SO FAST. If this game goes to script for Vermont, 5.5 points is more than it sounds and I think they get there (and ideally just win the damn thing outright!)
Future Bet
I don’t think there’s much in the way of value to be had here. Actually think there will be plenty of chalk throughout this tournament. There will be spots to get funky with an Elite 8 bet or an exotic type of future: this ain’t it.
Region Winner
You’re not going to get much in the way of odds to take the ‘Zags, but that profiles as the play. Yea, I think Duke has a decent path to meet Gonzaga, so if you wanted to chase the odds with them, I’d get it. This looks like the “chaotic region in the middle rounds that ends up with chalk at the end” portion of the bracket. It seems like we always have one: people lose their mind early on due to the chaos and by the end, they are complaining that the top seeds got an “easy” route.
Final Four Odds
Purdue 26.4%
Baylor 18.2%
Kentucky 14.7%
Saint Mary's 4.3%
Round 1 Picks
Kentucky (-17) over Saint Peter’s
I was today years old when I learned that a Division I team has a Peacock as a mascot, so that’s a thing. Unfortunately, that’s about the only think Saint Peter’s has going in their favor as they grade out in the bottom 10% of just about everything. They can defend at a reasonable level and that’s great, but we aren’t playing soccer here: you need to put points on the board to advance and I’m just not sure how they get much past 50 in this spot. Kentucky needs a get right game after the rough end to the season … I think they get it here.
Murray State (-1) over San Francisco
The fightin’ Ja Morant’s share the ball at a high level and that should be enough for the more talented team to overcome a strong fundamental opposing defense. We also get the better rebounding team, so if this game is tight down the stretch, we should be limiting a limited offense to one shot: I’ll take that
Future Bet
Given that Purdue topped my power ranks, I’m never going to say no investing in them. They aren’t a perfect team, but they are a lot to deal with on the offensive end over the course of 40 minutes and if they get going: look out. It’s not an easy path to the Final Four, but a UK team that has it’s peaks and valleys with a Baylor team that is banged up … could be scarier. I really don’t fear any of the middle teams in this bracket, so for me, it’s a decent price to bet against Baylor/Kentucky
Region Winner
I think the only way you get bet a region winner here is Purdue. Not to say that they will for sure win it, who knows, but the market has priced me out of Baylor and I simply think Purdue is better than Kentucky.
Final Four Odds
Arizona 55.4%
Illinois 7.3%
Colorado State 4.9%
Villanova 3.5%
Ohio State 3.4%
Round 1 Picks
Really not much to see here. If you can stomach the Illinois experience, and my God is it an experience, backing them in the first round isn’t a bad play (and is one I more than likely land on). They hold a reasonable defensive edge in this spot and considering that Chat wants to out-rebound their opponents … yea, I’ll take my chances with Kofi handling his business and taking away the primary strength of the underdog in this spot.
Future Bet
I think betting almost anyone out of the bottom portion of this region to make the Elite 8 makes sense. My bracket will have Villanova over Ohio State in that 2nd round game due to their better odds to get there, but betting either OSU or Colorado State to win 3 games makes a lot of sense to me
Region Winner
It’s Arizona. Boring bet. Sorry. But I do think they are that good (and that this bracket is that weak in the bottom half). If you want to chase ceiling, you could argue that Illinois hits it, upsets ‘Zona and then gets to benefit from the bottom portion of this region should ‘Nova fall … so if you’re not going Arizona, Illinois has my attention.
Final Four Odds
Kansas 55.4%
Miami 9.5%
Iowa 7.3%
Colgate 2.6%
Round 1 Picks
Miami (+1.5) over USC
Not sure this is a high tempo game and we are getting a whole bunch of points to take a team that should win the battle of the free throw line. The issue here is that USC should dominate the boards. If Miami is even remotely competitive on that front (something I think they have a decent shot at doing with a week to prep, as opposed to if these two teams were to meet in Round 2). The ‘Canes haven’t lost by more than 4 points in over a month … we don’t need an outright win, we just need them to keep it tight and I think we get that at the very least.
Colgate (+8) over Wisconsin
Wisky has the best player on the court (and arguably in D-I), but their offense can be spotty at times. Enter Colgate. The fightin’ toothpastes do everything right on the offensive end. Move the ball, only take good shots. You know, traditional Wisconsin hoops. Neither team is in any hurry and with Wisconsin only boasting an average defense, the average quality of shot from Colgate projects as something worth investing in.
Future Bet
Kansas is pretty clearly the class of this region in my opinion, but if there’s a chaotic region, this could well be it. There’s some star power in this bracket, but plenty of flawed teams, thus giving any of the top 6 seeds a reasonable look at a run. If I had to pick a non-KU team, it’d be Iowa: Keegan Murray is a star and they’ve got a little bit of grit that they’ve lacked in years past. I think beating KU is a tall task, but I think that’s about their only obstacle from a Final Four.
Region Winner
It’s Kansas. Not overthinking it (and not betting it … but picking it in bracket pools for sure)
We will get to picking the final two games on your sheet in a minute, but first, let’s take a look at how the top teams have progressed in my power ranks on a week to week basis:
Now that you have your Final Four, it’s time to win your pool. Yes, it’s fun to lead your poll after a day or two, but when all is said and done, it’s the later stages of play that determine ultimately determine things. I get asked a lot: “where do I go now? How do I make these tough calls in games featuring teams I obviously like?”. It’s two fold.
Trends
It’s less about star power now than in the past. The past three champions have seen their leading scorer average just 4.1% more points per game than the next best option (five seasons prior: 23.4%)
Each of the past 15 champions have had an adjusted defense rank 22nd or better
The average ranking of the past six champions in assist-to-turnover ratio: 9.2 (significantly different than the six seasons prior: 52.3)
Win equity
With projected spreads, I have the ability to look at traditional win rates and assign win percentages by round. Did it for the Final Four within each region, so let’s stack those up against one another and see which teams are the best bet to make it to the Final Four in the event you want to go off the beaten path a bit:
Now for where the money is made … the Final Four
Yes, Purdue is the top team in my power rankings and - in theory - that would make them my champion pick. But, just like Ohio State in the earlier rounds, Arizona’s win equity get to this game exceeds the tiny difference I have between the two profiles, so my bracket will have ARIZONA (assuming decent health) as the champion, despite me having them as a 0.1-point underdog in my final.
Not enough content yet? If you’ve hung in there for all of this. Thank you. Let’s get you out of here with some potentially actionable advice that can help pay for your various bracket pools!
GAMBLING NOTES TO CONSIDER
In the one-and-done era (2006), teams favored by single digits are 361-379-12 ATS (double digits: 112-115-3)
In the one-and-done era (2006), teams favored by 15+ points 51-56-1 ATS and teams favored by 20+ points 28-32-1 ATS
In 4 of the past 5 seasons, teams favored by 10+ points in the first round have covered at least 50% of games (in those 5 seasons as a whole: 34-31)
Trending? Cover rate for favorites of less than 5 points in the first two rounds …
2017: 52.9%, 2018: 47.1%, 2019: 44.4% and 2021: 42.9%
Such favorites in the first round over the past 2 seasons: 6-15 ATS
Is Vegas showing an unwillingness to label the elite teams as elite early on? Past 4 tournaments, here are the cover rates by favorites in the first round …
Under 5-point favorite: 38.1%
5-9.5-point favorite: 45.3%
10+ point favorite: 50%
In 4 straight tournaments and in 8 of the past 9, multiple 16-seeds have covered in the first round
Since 2014, 11 seeds are 18-10 ATS (14-7 ATS when the spread is under 5 points)
Less star power in recent champions (PAR: points + assists + rebounds)
Average PAR of the leading scorer … Past 5 champions: 24.7
Previous 7 champions: 28.1
2022 Arizona - Benedict Mathurin: 25.6 PAR
Past 3 champions
The leading scorer averaged (on average) 4.1% more points than the #2 options
In the 5 seasons prior, that number was 23.4%
Reverting to the 2006-08 days. The 2008 Jayhawks (Brandon Rush/Mario Chalmers) or the repeat Gator champs (Joakim Noah/Taurean Green, Green/Corey Brewer) where the difference between scoring option 1 and 2 was 3.6%
2022 Arizona – Benedict Mathurin +20% (not ideal)
Each of the past 15 champions have had an adjusted D ranking of 22nd or better
11 of them have ranked 11th over better
2022 Arizona – 20th in adjusted defense
Past 6 champions
Average assist-to-turnover national ranking: 9.2
No champion in the 4 years prior (and in 6 of the 9 champs prior) ranked better than 40th
Average assist-to-turnover national ranking the 6 years prior: 52.3
2022 Arizona – 10th in assist-to-turnover ratio
Past 4 champions
Each has ranked better in assist-to-turnover than adjusted D (and in 5 of the past 6 champs)
Past 6 champions
Average assist-to-turnover rank: 9.2 (Adjusted D: 10.8)
Average assist to turnover rank the 6 years prior: 52.3 (Adjusted D: 9.3)
2022 Arizona – 10th in assist-to-turnover, 20th in adjusted defense
TITLE GAME
The team with the higher eFG% entering the game has won 10 of the past 15 titles
Works against my pick here … Gonzaga/Purdue are 1-2 among contenders in eFG%
Offense has trumped defense lately
3 of the past 4 champs had the better assist-to-turnover ratio
In all 4 of those seasons the team with the WORSE adjusted defense
That’s a direct flip from the 4 years prior …
3 of those 4 champs had the WORSE assist-to-turnover ratio
All 4 of those champions had the better adjusted defense
4 of the past 5 title games have seen BOTH teams rank top-26 in BOTH assist-to-turnover and adjusted D
Purdue doesn’t check the defense box, but Gonzaga does if you want to check this box
12 of 19 games in the KenPom era have both had a top-15 adjusted defense
Every title game in the KenPom era has had a top-20 defense involved
Arizona ranking 20th on the nose helps me qualify here
11 straight have had a top-15 adjusted defense
9 straight have had a top-11 (you need Gonzaga or Auburn in there if you want this)
4 of the past 5 have had a top-5
Back to Golf. Well, give this a share first. Then go to golf
VALSPAR Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Par 4s Gained 450-500 Yards
Par 3s Gained 200-225 Yards
Strokes Gained: Short Game
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
POWER RANKS: Past 36 Rounds
Course
Course: Copperhead
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Greens: TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis
Past Winners
2021 Sam Burns -17
2019 Paul Casey -8
2018 Paul Casey -10
2017 Adam Hadwin -14
2016 Charl Schwartzel -7
2015 Jordan Spieth -10
VALSPAR INFO
Tambo has started these info threads each week and it’s providing to be a great resource for anyone who enjoys their info to be aggreigated into one place. Plus, he’s giving away $$$ for RTs. So, do that.
And while he’s not on the show this week, check out Kenny and Baroff on the Degens show
WATCH: FGD VALSPAR DK PICKS
For adjusted par, even being a par 71, Copperhead plays longer than the scorecard since there are five par 3s complimenting the standard four par 5s. Four of those par 3s can measure more than 200 yards, and all rank inside the nine most difficult holes on the course.
Factor in the severe doglegs, the tree-lined fairways, 74 bunkers, eight water hazards and an average driving distance more than 12 yards shorter than the average course, and you have one of the TOUR’s most difficult tracks. Oh, driving accuracy and greens in regulations hit are below PGA TOUR average, too. You’re looking for a player who can acutely manage each aspect of their game Tee-To-Green, and hope they don’t putt themselves out of the event.
Outside of the par 5s, which even play more difficult than you think, the entire course is brutal, but the SNAKE PIT (hiss noise) is where the big blow-ups happen. And it’s far more noticeable since they’re the closing holes. And also because there’s an awesome statue signifying the lurking danger ahead …
Essentially, it’s the Bear Trap with no budget for a good PR firm. Holes 16, 17 and 18 are among the most difficult three-hole stretches played annually on TOUR. No Valspar winner has ever played the Snake Pit at better than even par.
Historic Snake Pit Data
Hole 16: Par 4 | 475 Yards | +0.30 (Rank 1) | 8.5% Birdies; 24% Bogeys; 6% Doubles or Worse
Hole 17: Par 3 | 215 Yards | +0.14 (Rank 7) | 9% Birdies; 19% Bogeys; 1% Doubles or Worse
Hole 18: Par 4 | 445 Yards | +0.17 (Rank 6) | 11% Birdies; 22% Bogeys; 2% Doubles or Worse
I plead with you, DO NOT victory lap a winner until they tap in on 18. The potential for multi-shot swings over this final stretch almost seems inevitable, and may even create a decent live betting opportunity on a player already in the clubhouse.
MORE NOTES!!!
WEATHER
Yes, we’re doing this again. There does appear to be a potential advantage to the PM/AM (where have I heard that before?). While I was wrong about the proper wave stack a week ago, I was right there was an advantage. So, to cover my bases this week, instead of doing 15/50 PM/AM, I went 10 PM/AM and reverse stacked with another 5 to try and exploit a potential weather edge.
LINK: CLOSEST COURSE WIND TOWER
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
Expect everyone from Sam Burns up to crack double digits with the exception of maybe Tyrrell Hatton (although he should be close) with Louis, VIK, JT and Morikawa leading the charge.
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & DK Own Projections
Hovland
Morikawa
Louis
Fitzpatrick
Ancer
Thomas
Hadwin
C Bez
Knox
Kokrak
Keegan