TEXAS OPEN PICKS, LIV MIAMI & VALSPAR RECAP
Geoff gets off the mat in 2024 with his Jaeger winner as we recap the Houston Open, talk some Scheffler, and exciting Sunday leaderboard, and some Masters odds. We go over each range on the betting board at the Texas Open and our favorite bets for Valero and LIV Miami. I also get mad at how awful the LIV website is.
WATCH: Valero Texas Open Picks, Bets, One and Done | LIV Miami Picks, Bets | Houston Open Recap
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2024 Valero Texas Open Preview
Field: 156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, April 4
Defending Champion: Corey Conners
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Opportunities Gained
Driving Distance Gained
Par 5s Gained
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Course
Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
Yardage: 7,438
Par: 72
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
Par 3's (4): Average distance -- 201 yards
- Conners went over par on six holes here last season during his win and three of them came on Par 3's (two bogeys and a double)
These four holes are the four most oft-par'd on the course, all over 67% of the time. Take your medicine and move on.
Hole 13 measures 241 yards (fifth toughest on the course) and boosts this average.
Par 4's (10): Average distance -- 429 yards
- Six of the seven toughest holes on the course are Par 4's with the three most difficult being Par 4's on the front 9
- The two shortest Par 4s carry a birdie rate north of 23% (one of which is Hole 17 which also has a bogey rate of just 8.5% … all reward, little risk)
Par 5's (4): Average distance -- 588 yards
Conners played the two back-9 par 5's at -5 for the week last season in his win here (birdieing both of them in each of the first two days
There were more eagles on Hole 14 last season than on the other three Par 5s combined, so that is your must score hole. Hole 8 is over 600 yards and could be a difference maker: 20.4% birdie rate and 15.6% bogey rate.
$50K to 1st Majors Tournament + PME LISTENERS LEAGUE
The Pat Mayo Experience listeners league you are used to is obviously no longer on DraftKings. It has migrated over to Underdog Fantasy and will be released about 15 minutes after tee times come out on Tuesday. That’s been filling with no issues, and one more week of a quick fill should get us even more RAKE FREE money for the Masters.
In the meantime, there’s some serious overlay in the $50K to first Major seasn Best Ball drafts right now. Geoff and I were having a blast doing these drafts a month ago and I’m going to be doing some with you good people almost every night over the next week. Even if you don’t live in a Pick’em state, you can still get in these drafts. So, get an Underdog account if you don’t have one yet. Everyone who uses or used code “MAYO” top sign up will be getting a nice FREE SQUARE bonus for Augusta btw.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Past Winners
2023: Corey Conners -15
2022: JJ Spaun -13
2021: Jordan Spieth -18
2019: Corey Conners -20
2018: Andrew Landry -17
2017: Kevin Chappell -12
2016: Charley Hoffman -12
2015: Jimmy Walker -11
2023: Corey Conners -15 (one clear of Sam Stevens)
- Conners was the FRL by two strokes after shooting a 64 (that was eight strokes better than Stevens and he needed every one of them with Stevens besting him in each of the next three rounds)
- Five of the top-9 finishers lost strokes OTT ... but the top four on the final leaderboard were the top four in SG:APP (in order)
2022: J.J. Spaun -13 (two clear of Matt Kuchar and Matt Jones)
- Spaun's 67 on Thursday was his best round of the week (two back from the leader). It was his consistency (no round worse than 70) that got him to the finish line (Kuchar carded a 72 on Saturday and Matt Jones a 75 on Friday ... not losing an event can result in a victory!)
- 11 of the top 12 finishers gained strokes putting from 10-15 feet (nine of them lost ground from 20-25 feet)
2021: Jordan Spieth -18 (two clear of Charley Hoffman)
- With three rounds of 67 or better, Spieth's consistency was rewarded. He was eight strokes better than Hoffman on Thursday (the only round he was better than the runner-up for the week)
- Spieth won doing things differently because that's how he does things ... he was the only top 16 finisher to lose good drives to the field (he was top 4 in both SG:APP and SG:ARG)
2019: Corey Conners -20 (two clear of Charley Hoffman)
- Conners was the only player to card four rounds in the 60's (his 66 on Sunday was his best of the week and T-3rd best on the course that day)
- Conners was the best in SG:APP by 3 strokes (allowed him to overcome -1.5 strokes ARG)
2018: Andrew Landry -17 (two clear of Trey Mullinax and Sean O'Hair)
- Landry was the only player to card four rounds in the 60's (he was five better than Mullinax and three better than O'Hair on Thursday)
Cash in close ... the top five finishers all gained strokes putting from 5-10 AND from 10-15 feet (Landry won this event despite losing SG:P from 15-20 feet, 20-25 feet, and 25+ feet)
2017: Kevin Chappell (-12, one clear of Brooks Koepka)
Avoided the bad round (71 was his worst, five of the eight closest to Chappell carded a 73 or worse)
Seven of the top nine in terms of GIRs earned top-10 paychecks (Chappell and Koepka were two of the three best for the week in the category)
Course & Tournament Notes
Average landing area fairway widths are 25-30 yards.
TPC San Antonio Oaks Course was designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia and has been host to this event since 2010.
Since 2010, the front nine has played significantly more difficult. From 2010-2018, the field played the front nine +3,704 compared to just +730 on the back nine. In that same span, this event had more triple bogeys or worse (289) than all other courses except for TPC Sawgrass (338) and PGA National (323). That’s saying a lot considering TPC San Antonio only has three water hazards.
TPC San Antonio annually has the toughest greens to hit in regulation on the PGA TOUR (58%), along with Riviera CC, Harbour Town GL and TPC Southwind.
If you don’t know by now, Strokes Gained: Approach is the most influential stat at any course. It’s not necessarily predictive, insomuch that like anything in golf, a player can have a great approach one week and then completely lose it the next. Usually, SG: APP massively outweighs both SG: Off The Tee and SG: Around the Green by a large margin when looking back to see how the top finishers actually got to the top of the leaderboard. However, TPC San Antonio is one of the few courses where driving inches closer to overall importance. Now, driving isn’t quite as big of a factor as approaches, but this is about as close as you’ll see all year. Long and straight is what you want off the tee, but it turns out everyone isn’t Jon Rahm, so it’s better to be long than accurate. Only 56% of drives find the shortgrass anyway, which is below the PGA TOUR average (62%). It’s essentially the Bryson strategy from Winged Foot: If players are going to miss the fairway regardless, they may as well hit it as far as possible. With that extra distance, players can cut down on the number of long irons throughout the week and you won’t end up in a forest fury and make a 16 like Kevin Na. Just avoid the OB.
Yes, wind can play a major factor on this exposed course. The gusts at the 2015 event were the most impactful ever seen from an a.m./p.m. split perspective. That year, the morning wave had a scoring average of 78.61, almost four strokes worse than the afternoon wave (74.86). It caused seven players to withdraw over the first two rounds. That one round still has DraftKings players sweating the weather every week. Outside of an insane British Open weather swing, it’s doubtful we’ll ever see wind affect one side of the draw so impactful ever again. Don’t sweat it too much, but it’s worth taking a gander at the weather report before making any final decisions.
The cut line has not been under par any year the Valero has been contested at TPC San Antonio. At the wind-infused 2015 event, it was +7.
There are 74 bunkers littered across the course, two of the four Par 3s are AT LEAST 207 yards, plus distance will assist in fostering birdies on the monstrous par 5s – three of the four par 5s are 591 yards or longer, taking more eagle chances out of play, and another that falls just under the 600-yard barrier. Generally, the easiest scoring holes on any course, two of the Par 5s at TPC San Antonio annually play over par. The Par 4 No. 17 is drivable, though.
Six of the past eight champions had a Top 35 finish the year before. The only two who didn’t — Steven Bowditch and JJ Spaun — had missed the cut in their previous starts at the Oaks course.
Five of the past eight winners made the Valero Texas Open their first PGA TOUR victory: Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell, JJ Spaun and Steven Bowditch.
Since play began at the Oaks Course in 2010, the third-round leader/co-leader has gone on to win eight times.
DraftKings Notes
Streak: With Holes 1 and 9 being two of the three toughest on the course, stringing together birdies as you flip 9s isn’t going to happen much. That said, Holes 17, 18 and 2 are three of the five easiest, so back-to-front would seem to put you in a better position if you can be a part of the 11% that birdie Hole 1. Holes 7-8-10-11 all rank in the middle third in terms of difficulty, so you’re betting very much against the odds of finding three in a row when going from front-to-back.
2022: All four players that reached triple digits in DK points were priced under $8,000 with Spaun ($6,700) leading the charge
Three of the four most expensive golfers didn’t play the weekend.
2021: The top-2 DK scorers were both top-10 in DK pricing
Five of the next six top DK scorers were priced at $7,700 or cheaper
2019: Four of the top-7 DK scorers were priced at $7,000 or cheaper (Conners won at $6,400 and outscored second place by 34 DK points)
Balance was key … Kuchar was the highest scoring $10,000+ golfer and he finished 15th on the DK leaderboard.
2018: The average price of the seven top DK golfers on the week was $7,300 (min: Andrew Putnam at $6,500, max: Jimmy Walker at $8,200)
Three of the top six in DK pricing failed to make the cut
2017: Koepka was the only one of the eight most expensive golfers to finish top-13 in DK scoring (five of the top-9 scorers were priced under $7,500).
Bets & Picks
VALERO TEXAS OPEN
Hideki Matsuyama — Deki’s T15 a year ago was 15 spots better than the T30 from his debut at the Oaks course. Shave off another 15 spots or so and we got ourself a winner. But seriously, whatever issue Matsuyama had with his driver a year has vanished which has led to three consecutive Top 10s, all in elevated events where he now sits Top 10 in driving, approach and short game over the past 12 rounds. In that span, he’s averaging 0.33 strokes more than the next closest player in the field T2G per round.
Harris English — No one thing sticks out about English’s recent play outside of consistency. After some irons struggles to begin 2024, he’s now gained in three straight. All elevated events. He’s gained at least 1.5 off the tee in six of eight starts, around the green in six straight and on the greens in three of four. While the field is stronger than normal compared to the past few Texas Open’s English’s steady hand is exactly the type of effort which can knock of the favorites in San Antonio.
Nicolai Hojgaard 75/1 — After a brutal trip to Florida (MC/MC), the Dane get a reset before making his Augusta debut. Prior to heading to the Sunshine State, Hojgaard began to flash his prodigious driver while gaining against the field on approach and on the greens. It’s more a bet on talent than anything, really. His driver has been his bets weapon in 2024, something which ultimately failed him at Valero a year ago. If he can flip his -3.1 SG: OTT performance at the site in 2024, he’ll do much better than T28 this time around.
LIV MIAMI
Dustin Johnson 15/1 — Already picked up a win in Vegas in February, and wouldn’t it be fun if a suddenly trending DJ got himself into the pre-Masters mix just to add more confusion to the top of the board? He’s won at Doral before, and is has flashes of the player he was that year.
Paul Casey 27/1 — In classic Casey fashion, he has a bunch of solid looking results but pees on his leg each time he gets into contention. He should have closed out LIV Hong Kong in the playoff, yet faltered. Then entered the following tournament on the Asian Tour atop of the Round 3 leaderboard, and ended up T6 against an awful lot of scrubs. But you’re just a loser until you win. Hopefully a Doral victory can be a nice consolation prize since he won’t be at Augusta.
MASTERS FUTURE
Sahith Theegala 60/1 — I only went with a half wager before Houston in the off chance he won and crushed his number. He’s floating around 45/50 right now, but since he didn’t charge the leaderboard at Memorial Park and isn’t playing this week, he’ll drop back into the 60 range (or better for us) when the odds reset Monday morning.
A QUESTION
As you may have heard, I’m realizing the Unofficial World Golf Rankings later this week. I am having a tough time rankings these guys. What say you?
REPLY WITH YOUR AWNSERS @THEPME on X
— PM