Valero Texas Open CHEATSHEET: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes, Underdog
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2026 Valero Texas CHEATSHEET
Mayo and Keith Stewart of Read The Line discuss the odds for the 2026 Valero Texas Open making their Final Bets and One & Done selections. They guys preview which golfers fit the course, the weather draw and more in a free flowing golf conversation to have the final world on golf for the week. Plus, Tiger Woods’ return to golf on TGL.
2026 Valero Texas Open Quick Bets
WINNER
Sepp Straka +3500 (3 Places)
Johnny Keefer +5500 (3 Places)
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +7000 (3 Places)
J.J. Spaun +7500 (3 Places)
Nick Taylor +11000 (3 Places)
BOMBS
Austin Smotherman +12500 (3 Places)
Andrew Novak +16000 (3 Places)
William Mouw +17500 (3 Places)
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Austin Smotherman +7000
Max Homa +8000
Bronson Burgoon +10000
A.J. Ewart +11000
Sam Ryder +12500
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2026 Valero Texas Open Picks
Sepp Straka — Straka’s fifth tee-to-green in this field for the year despite being plagued by chronic Tommy Fleetwood syndrome in 2026 — letting one bad round kill his chance to win each week. This cropped up one round in Phoenix, round three at Sawgrass, Sunday at Bay Hill. In spite of this, he’s still finished Top 15 in three of four events, all signature status. Maybe against weaker competition he can keep it together all four rounds, or maybe the one bad round won’t be terrible enough to sink his chances.
Johnny Keefer — Keefer’s local to San Antonio, and there’s a chance dude hates Florida. He missed all three cuts during the Florida swing and played the weekend in each of his other five starts, including last week’s T3 in Houston. All year he’s been one of the best ball strikers on TOUR, but like many of that ilk, has chipped and putted his way out of contention most weeks. The short game is starting to turn a bit, and maybe the familiar layouts in Texas are the cause. He’s gained around the greens in two of his past three starts and was almost field average on the greens a week ago. Basically, his stats are Corey Conners with more distance. And I hear that can play at TPC San Antonio.
J.J. Spaun — Despite the poor results, Spaun’s approach play is quietly peaking. The reigning U.S. Open champ is averaging +1.25 SG:APP/round over his past two starts. The struggles have been spread across the rest of his game, depending on the week, except for his putter. That has been frigid. He’s more than a stroke worse per round in 2026 than he was in 2025. Hopefully, these less-than-difficult putting surfaces, coupled with his winning history in San Antonio, can flip that back the other way. At least for a week.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju — I’m not missing this one despite missing those +14000s hanging Sunday night. Back-to-back Top 6 finishes where he’s been lighting it up with the driver, irons, and putter. That’s exactly the skill set and form you want to find a winner.
Nick Taylor — Taylor has a history of winning tournaments without showing any form. That’s good, since he has nothing but middling results this year. He’s played the weekend in seven of eight starts but only has one finish inside the Top 25; T13 at the season opener in Hawaii. Recently, though, it’s been a putting problem. That’s masked the fact he’s Top 10 in the field in approach and around the green the past two months. Get him in contention and watch him win.
Andrew Novak — Does one start with good numbers qualify as BACK??? This bet hopes the answer is “yes.” The ball striking was immaculate at Valspar, finishing 5th despite a T55 result. That’s what his worst putting performance since 2022 will do to your paycheck. This has been a theme all season too. Novak has been fantastic or horrendous with his flat stick. He’s gained strokes putting three times in his past seven starts. In each, he’s gained over three strokes on the field. In the four he’s lost, he’s lost an average of four strokes. That mimics his past at The Oaks Course too. He’s played it each of the past four years, averaging five strokes gained in the starts he’s gained, and lost 3.5 in the ones he lost. If we can get one of those good weeks, as one of the field’s best wind players, Novak should be good for his third Top 10 at Valero in four years.
William Mouw — Chairman Bill has begun flashing similar ball striking and putting numbers which resulted in a win at last summer’s ISCO Championship. Over the past month, Mouw is Top 25 in the field in driving (8th), irons (5th), putting (21st), accuracy (4th), and GIR rate (3rd).
2026 Valero Texas Open WEATHER
The weather looks terrible this week. To make matters worse, there doesn’t even appear to be a distinct edge in the tee times. To compound the issues, there appear to be scattered showers all week, which could halt play and mess everything up anyway.
In weeks like this, if you’re playing a ton of DFS lineups, I’d allocate a percentage of builds to both sides of the stack and hope you can luck into the right one. While we can’t pinpoint which side has an edge right now, when there’s so much wind and rain forecasted, there’s a good chance that one side will get a distinct advantage.
WIND TOWER: San Antonio International Airport
You can scour the tee sheet to find which golfers tee off when, or simply use the Rabbit Hole to do it on easy mode. On the main player page, just click on the tee icon with the ball on it to reveal them on the page.
Stats, Tools And Customizable Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool
2026 Valero Texas Open DRAFTKINGS
The Morikawa, Hojgaard, and Berger WDs left the ownership completely flat at the top, with some ownership breaks coming in the mid-to-low 8K range. It’s so easy to jam three 9K players into lineups without sacrificing anything at the bottom; this will be the common build. Using two or three of Thorb, Spaun, Mitchell, Taylor, Keefer, and Harman (that range) seems like it will make your lineups way different, especially if you drop into the 6Ks.
I’m mainly targeting Zecheng Dou, A.J. Ewart, Bronson Burgoon, William Mouw, Austin Eckroat, and Joel Dahmen in those style lineups as my last man in.
Projections And Ownership Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool
Valero Texas Open Underdog THURSDAY
All take one guy trending up to go lower and the opposite and pray it works out. Trying to keep these Underdog plays more simple rather than overthinking it. There are currently 30% and 40% boosts in the Underdog lobby (MAX $50 ENTRY) that you can use to enhance the odds on this as well.
TAIL OR FADE + Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000
MASTERS WEEK!!!!!
Since you’ve scrolled this far, you’ve earned getting early access to the first MASTERS show. I got Michael Kim to go hole-by-hole at Augusta National and talk strategy and give some stories about his time playing each. I’ve decked it out with graphics, slopes, flyovers. Pretty proud of the production on this one. Share it around once it’s released on Thursday.
WATCH: Masters Hole By Hole Breakdown Michael Kim
