Valero Texas Cheatsheet: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes

+ Early Masters DK Pricing

Mayo Media

Apr 02, 2025

Keegan +3000
Berger +4000
Tom Kim +4500
Cauley + 5500

BOMBS

Hoge +9000 (8 Places)
Hoffman +9000 (8 Places)
Fisk +20000 (8 Places)

FIRST ROUND LEADER

Cauley +5500
Hoffman +9000 (With 5 Places)
Cole +9000 (With 5 Places)
Fisk +12500 (With 5 Places)
Camilo +25000 (With 5 Places)

LIV DORAL

Bryson +1400
Burmester +1800

QUICK NOTES

Thursday the most gettable day in the forecast.
Fri/Sat/Sun looking like moderate to high winds.
Despite low winning scores, TPC San Antonio is annually one of the 10 toughest courses to par.
High end ball strikers with some short game prowess will cover you

PME CANADIAN OPEN EXPERIENCE TRIP GIVEAWAY/MASTERS POOL SHEET

The giveaway for the expenses paid, PME experience in Toronto for Canadian Open week is only open to Canadians outside of Ontario. For everyone else in the world, I have another $1000 in cash giveaways for The Masters which has already started, and there’s a printable Masters pool for everyone available too.

Printable Masters Pools & Free Trip To Toronto Giveaway + CASH BONUSES

Mayo Media

Apr 1

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HOT LINKS

Golf Majors Player Draft | Best Masters Draft | Cust Corner: Calorie Price is Right, Swimming

Valero Texas Open DraftKings Picks, Final Bets, Weather, One and Done

Early 2025 Masters DraftKings Pricing Review

Valero Texas Open Picks, Bets, One and Done | Houston Open Recap

$5K Trip to Toronto for PME LIVE, Canadian Open & Blue Jays

VALERO BETS

Before the bets, I just want to make a connection between this year’s THE PLAYERS and Valero. I really don’t know what to do with this information but at lot of players at the top of the leaderboard in 2025 have fantastic TPC San Antonio track records:

1st Rory — 2nd/3rd in 4 starts
2nd Spaun — 2022 Valero winner
T3 Hoge — T12 in only start in past five years
T3 Akshay — 2024 Valero Winner
T3 Glover — 4 Top 25s in last 5 Valero starts
T6 Conners — 2-time Valero winner

Could be good news for Cauley, Danny Walker, Jake Knapp, Sam Ryder, Tommy Fleetwood, and Alex Smalley. Or not.

Keegan Bradley — The Ryder Cup Captain enters with solid form, especially I the ball striking department, and has temporarily fixed his putter since the West Coast swing. He posted a Top 10 here a year ago, along with a T2 at Colonial last season so his Texas form is on point too.

Daniel Berger — The numbers may be better than his actually results but Berger’s consistency has been fantastic since Phoenix, posting five consecutive Top 25s. His short game and GIRs have been immaculate, he just needs to get his driver and irons clicking at the same time and he can vault back into the winners circle for the first time since winning in Texas in 2021. Plus, under the exclusive tab, my good friends at Coolbet boost him up to +4000 for everyone to enjoy.

Tom Kim — This has the potential to be awful if TK continuing to putt like he’s looking at a different hole, but the iron play has been undeniably good. More so from the key wedge ranges. It also helps we’ve seen a lot of historically awful putters pick up wins in San Antonio.

Bud Cauley — I hate his number but I really don’t care. Cauley’s been amazing his last two starts, and TPC San Antonio is perfectly set up for this heater he’s on. The tight draw he’s hitting off the tee will give a massive advantage to attacks these pins, which he’s been so good at doing lately: Cauley Ranks third in the field in Opportunities gained over the last 12 rounds. He’s the only player in the Top 30 of that stat to rank Top 10 in putting from inside 15 feet too. And for the harder holes where his irons can get a bit dicey, he possesses one of the best short games in the world at the moment (11th ATG; 4th SS). While the trend would suggest he comes in second (after the T6/T4 run), I’m hoping he can sneak across the finish line and complete his comeback.

Tom Hoge — Hoge’s price just seems wrong. Take a look at some one the names in front of him on the odds board and ask yourself if they have the upside of one Tom Hoge. They don’t. Fresh off almost storming the castle at THE PLAYERS (gaining 9.9 strokes on approach) at an event where he’s gained 3.5 SG: APP in three of his last five starts, he’s a worthy gamble. Of course he can chip and putt out of any tournament, that’s his thing, but that describes the 20 players directly ahead of him in odds. And they probably don’t have a decent chance to be lap the field in approach. Think of him as a homeless Corey Conners.

Charley Hoffman — Chucky Ho Train was once king of the course… until the last three years. But really, he has struggled through back injuries over that time and has been kinda terrible everywhere. He’s having a resurgence this year, so why not at his favorite course. Hoffman’s yet to drop strokes to the field on approach in any start this year, and even through the bad years has gained an average of 3.6 SG: OTT at Valero.

Steven Fisk — Look, this guy is my new Luke List. His T2G is terrific but he putts so poorly he’s going to miss a lot of cuts. It took me almost 4 years to realize my money on List, so there’s likely to be a lot of disagreement disappointment for Fisk. But has long has they keep him this far down the board, even a Top 8 finish is going to pay massive dividends if he can roll it somewhat competently.

WEATHER

It almost seems to be rule of thumb at this point, but for every Florida and Texas tournament you may just wanna create lineup stacks for both tee times. Because wind and rain are coming. When and how bad? That seems to be open ended. So cover your basis. I’m not leaning in as heavy as a week ago, but with my 50 Lineups I build 10 to each wave stack then combined them.

The GIR rate is is already lower at TPC San Antonio than the PGA average, so finding above average ball strikers with high end short game or vice versa should be the skill sets to target. Obviously, that’s not doable up and down your lineups, but it’d be nice to have as many guys that can prosper in all conditions as possible.

WIND TOWER: San Antonio International Airport

One thing does seem to be clear, Thursday looks like the most scoreable day for the field. That’s why I’ve made my underdog entry for then and landed up. That, and there’s a 60% PROFIT BOOST Token in the lobby. Which I used for this entry.

If you’re wondering why I when HIGHER on Hideki’s score, it’s twofold: One, he’s been pretty bad with his irons lately. Two, despite finishing T7/T15 the last two years, he’s actually been HIGHER than this number in six of eight rounds.

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DRAFTKINGS

As is customary for Wednesday, Tambo and I talked through ownership and lineup construction on DraftKings this week. If you ever have questions about the slate, see if you can there for the LIVE broadcast, which is 9am ET every Wednesday.